ES Journal - 2017/2018

[mbondy]

Intraday this is a huge buy right here right now.---Never risking any more than 2 percent of your liquid net worth of course.

Why take the risk at all? A market that's making new intraday lows is not a market to get long. Once a bottom has been established and tested, then yeah okay, there's someone defending it with a bid so getting long is logical and you have a point of reference to bail.
In any other case, you're just picking bottoms and your stop is just fuel for the next run down.

 

[speedo]

PA has been fantastic, my only problem is getting in some of them where I want to be given the volatility.

 

[FriskyCat]

I love overnight pullbacks. The basing process continues and I wouldn't be surprised if we bounce quite a bit higher from this open. Reminder---ES does not stay deeply oversold for a long time.

Position bias = constant, relentless distribution is a "basing process" and "pullback"

 

[speedo]

Position bias = constant, relentless distribution is a "basing process" and "pullback"

Yep, clearly institutional distribution...how long it last is anybody's guess but just follow the bouncing ball.

 

[FriskyCat]

Just about everyone is conditioned for "v" reversals after nearly a decade of managed declines (not to get too off the deep end here), but this Fed is a different animal and unlike Yellen's Fed, the parade of jawboning members is noticeably absent.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Basing still in process here. Long is the way to be here at least short term --and very long term which is what I am on. This move should carry us back to the 2750 area in the short term. Staying long here and intraday trading long with tight stops.

 

[mbondy]

Showing signs of strength here.

 

[speedo]

 

[Spectre2007]

3333 in 6 months... yep. I love being a bear .. but what I have seen indicates higher levels to come as we enter next phase of economy .. similar to ‘87

 

[tiddlywinks]

Basing still in process here. Long is the way to be here at least short term --and very long term which is what I am on. This move should carry us back to the 2750 area in the short term. Staying long here and intraday trading long with tight stops.

Agree on 2750 or so. In this move, only a maybe.

But here's the thing... it's conventional wisdom, no genius necessary!
Technically, using a 2% closing-basis rule, significant damage has been done on the daily and the weekly. It is real. Previous "support" for daily and weekly was between 2710 and 2750. You can determine the exact levels respectively that you use.

All we are talking about is support becomes resistance... 100 points plus/minus on the upside is nothing but a test. It is possible santa clause consolidates in the zone. Global IRs and global currencies hold the answers imo.