ES Journal - 2017/2018

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A few eyes watching the tl on spy.
 

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When the Fed releases their balance sheet later today for the last week (weds-weds), it wouldn't surprise me to see that they've been net accumulating.

However, in this environment, every accumulation is just a precursor to the next big sale.

... and sure enough, they were accumulating. Just over 2 billion in assets added to the balance sheet. To give some context, between April 11-18 the Fed were also net buyers (again accumulating 2 billion) but resumed their selling campaign the following week shedding almost 13 billion in the sell-off that followed. Not only is this textbook trading technique (nothing to do with charts and indicators) but it's also a unique opportunity to watch an extremely large player unwind an enormous position in real-time. Since the Fed doesn't want to 'shock' the market, unwinding a position of this caliber requires a lot of finesse (and by extension will create lots of volatility).

Only 2 or 3 more years of this to normalize the balance sheet barring an outright collapse.

Lower prices ahead, one way or the other :caution:
 
... and sure enough, they were accumulating. Just over 2 billion in assets added to the balance sheet. To give some context, between April 11-18 the Fed were also net buyers (again accumulating 2 billion) but resumed their selling campaign the following week shedding almost 13 billion in the sell-off that followed. Not only is this textbook trading technique (nothing to do with charts and indicators) but it's also a unique opportunity to watch an extremely large player unwind an enormous position in real-time. Since the Fed doesn't want to 'shock' the market, unwinding a position of this caliber requires a lot of finesse (and by extension will create lots of volatility).

Only 2 or 3 more years of this to normalize the balance sheet barring an outright collapse.

Lower prices ahead, one way or the other :caution:

If 2 year crosses 10 yr we are pooched. I believe they are trying to unwind and raise gently so when shit hits the fan they have room to cut. Feds are essentially now the bag holders and all of the world are counting on them to keep it under control. Thank Yellen for creating the next credit crisis and nobody their to backstop them. Not a good situation.
 
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