ES Journal - 2016

der_kommissar said:
The "grind higher" market eventually reaches a point where it feels as if there is no longer any trading. Minuscule ranges, VIX at rock bottom levels, etc, etc...It's one of many reasons that I prefer to be a "hit and run" short; if one gets "stuck" short when the market essentially parks itself in the upper range, it's not fun...

The flipside is that longs have multiple opportunities for favorable price excursion away from their entries...and then when it sits in the range it puts no pressure on their longs...Look at this rally from the Feb 11 lows, only a handful of days challenged the longs positions...same thing happened last Oct 1-Nov 3 (and then for about the 5 years prior to that)...Basically the market structure is such that it discourages any sort of short positions from taking hold.
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the "engineers" know this, the gaming of most markets through interlinked algo's is at work. The market structure has changed, and its in the best interest of the trader's to figure out what the engineers are tasked to do. Deutsche Bank and other banks admitted to rigging the metals market. And other markets have been implicated also. Plus a no name trader out of the basement using algo's is being prosecuted for "flash crashing" the market. So the main thing is to figure out the agenda.

The very very long term agenda is that the country can't sustain its expenditures without further debt and more debt. And in order to service the debt, interest rates have to be cajoled lower and lower over multi year time spans. The best way to do this is to hit different asset classes so that money is funneled into government debt. The same algo's at work tasked to keep the market up will hit the market to bring interest rates down. There were three emergency FED meetings, and a meeting with the Pres/Vice Pres this week. Protecting the establishment would force the algo's to prop markets up.
 
der_kommissar said:
The "grind higher" market eventually reaches a point where it feels as if there is no longer any trading. Minuscule ranges, VIX at rock bottom levels, etc, etc...It's one of many reasons that I prefer to be a "hit and run" short; if one gets "stuck" short when the market essentially parks itself in the upper range, it's not fun...

The flipside is that longs have multiple opportunities for favorable price excursion away from their entries...and then when it sits in the range it puts no pressure on their longs...Look at this rally from the Feb 11 lows, only a handful of days challenged the longs positions...same thing happened last Oct 1-Nov 3 (and then for about the 5 years prior to that)...Basically the market structure is such that it discourages any sort of short positions from taking hold.
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Ya high volatility makes for preferred trading, but we can only take what the market gives.

I'm fine shorting but when support is broken and you can see for yourself there is nothing but air, the whole calling tops because of "lines" or "divergences" is not my cup of tea. It is for some, but not for me, I dont need to short the highs to make money, Im fine shorting low, all in all, the too high too low is just a psychological impediment.

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Iron.Maiden said:
Ya high volatility makes for preferred trading, but we can only take what the market gives.

I'm fine shorting but when support is broken and you can see for yourself there is nothing but air, the whole calling tops because of "lines" or "divergences" is not my cup of tea. It is for some, but not for me.
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Because of personal biases... when its hard to get long, best to short at fib extensions at new higher prices.
 
Iron.Maiden said:
Ya high volatility makes for preferred trading, but we can only take what the market gives.

I'm fine shorting but when support is broken and you can see for yourself there is nothing but air, the whole calling tops because of "lines" or "divergences" is not my cup of tea. It is for some, but not for me, I dont need to short the highs to make money, Im fine shorting low, all in all, the too high too low is just a psychological impediment.

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I respect your trading (saw the great trade in the chat room a few weeks back)...I believe that some of the conflict on this thread has alot to do with varying time frames. I also have curbed my appetite for shorting into highs with this notion that a "two way" market exists (like when I started trading)...but at the same time I recognize that there have been periods of market history not unlike the present and these one way moves in both directions have occurred in the past...Your approach to staying on the right side of the present move is the most sensible...
 
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