ES Journal - 2016

180/200 EMA signal has been pretty powerful historically.

Only draw back to adhere to signal is you need to wait for retrace unless cascade starts. So far cascade hasn't started, so not enough momentum to sell on breakdown of lows. So safest thing to do is let price retrace to top of yearly ATR.
 
Spectre2007 said:
Yes.. Only way to tailgate the big boyz is maintain the direction they take it. Irrespective of your personal views unless the price demonstrates contrary to it.
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I've read a blog by a risk analyst recently and he suggests to not look at trends, but to concentrate on cycles instead, whatever the time frame is being exploited. He conducted a survey, which led him to believe that majority traders have a tendency to follow a trend, a practice that can become an obstacle due to a formation of bias and expectations, instead he advises to look at a chart not looking for a trend, but in a cyclical way.
 
Here's a 2% trade.

2% of TLA of 100k

2k

4 points = 10 ES contracts = 2k stop loss

You can trade this realistically till margin requirements hit.

Let's say margin calls only hit when account drops to 90k

You only have 10k as stop loss on total account value.

Which leads you to a limit of 5 trades.
 
Exercise: Trade 1

Long 1971 10 ES contracts.. 4 point stop loss

Take profit is 200 SMA at 2010

1967 is stop loss

2010 - 1971 = 39 points

39 points = 19,500 for projected profit.

So risking 2% to make 19.5%

This is just arbitrary entry trade off the current price at that time.

After trade placement it's been in profit zone since inception..no significant intratrade drawdown.

The rest of the trades, you leave for fib retracement entries. You draw fib retracement entry points from 1971 to 50 day SMA (signal to go long)
 
Last edited:
Oil implies chop intraday..
 

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