Thanks, But I don't like noises or have to read anything when I day trade-normally take 20 30 trades in 65 minutes, and after I trade, I have other commitments, if I am at Starbucks to relax, I look over posts and might add. I been to the chat room couple times, but see more arguments than much of good chat, so have enough of negative in my life, so not going to add more real time of it. Get a roomful of highly ego traders strutting their stuff, usually not much comes out of it.
ES Journal - 2016
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Thanks, But I don't like noises or have to read anything when I day trade-normally take 20 30 trades in 65 minutes, and after I trade, I have other commitments, if I am at Starbucks to relax, I look over posts and might add. I been to the chat room couple times, but see more arguments than much of good chat, so have enough of negative in my life, so not going to add more real time of it. Get a roomful of highly ego traders strutting their stuff, usually not much comes out of it.
Price action is such that staying long is more prudent than attempting to get short. The price has more traction to the upside. No overhead resistance encountered yet. No rejection of levels.
Upper levels:
200 day SMA
Neckline from previous triple top
Overhead downward trendline
In order for it to turn at levels, it needs to justify doing so secondary to a catalyst.
- retreat of oil prices
- corporate default rate
- carry trade unwind
- presidential election
- grexit
- FOMC not as dovish( higher interest rates )
- corporate profit recession
Reasons to push higher:
- price action, very few technical retracements
- low volume low volatility
- above 50 day SMA
- FOMC/CB's intervening in Oil/equities/fx
- FANG stocks at momo levels
- NFP/ECB/FOMC reports
- strong wage pressure/economic data overall
Hypothetical bull trades consistently making profit.
Upper levels:
200 day SMA
Neckline from previous triple top
Overhead downward trendline
In order for it to turn at levels, it needs to justify doing so secondary to a catalyst.
- retreat of oil prices
- corporate default rate
- carry trade unwind
- presidential election
- grexit
- FOMC not as dovish( higher interest rates )
- corporate profit recession
Reasons to push higher:
- price action, very few technical retracements
- low volume low volatility
- above 50 day SMA
- FOMC/CB's intervening in Oil/equities/fx
- FANG stocks at momo levels
- NFP/ECB/FOMC reports
- strong wage pressure/economic data overall
Hypothetical bull trades consistently making profit.
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Bullish Portfolio:
Long GBP/JPY 160.53
Long USD/JPY 113.93
Long ES 1984.5
Long Oil 34.63
Long HYG 80.37
Long DB 18.72
Long AAPL 100
Long NFLX 97.63
Long GBP/JPY 160.53
Long USD/JPY 113.93
Long ES 1984.5
Long Oil 34.63
Long HYG 80.37
Long DB 18.72
Long AAPL 100
Long NFLX 97.63
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Trade 3 - Balance 99k
Long 1980 1950 stop loss --- 30 points X 50 = 1500 .. Restricted to 1 contract only to constrain to 2k limit per trade, or 2% acct @ 100k
Projected target is 2010 ..200 day MA zone
Long 1980 1950 stop loss --- 30 points X 50 = 1500 .. Restricted to 1 contract only to constrain to 2k limit per trade, or 2% acct @ 100k
Projected target is 2010 ..200 day MA zone
What's the expected win rate?
If it's a low vol volume run up or creep, we should surpass 2010 and head into upper congestion zone 2100.
In 2000 we had dot com bombs.
In 2008 we had mortgage sub prime bombs.
In 2016 ?... Nothing as destructive as the above. Even though MA's signal down, it may be a false signal. I think politics are intruding into financial markets.
Trade 1 - (2k)
Trade 2 + 1k
IMO potentially there are more than one issue that can trigger liquidity issues and panic. Just because mainstream media doesn't wish to write about those issues doesn't mean they aren't there. Who on ET knew about 'subprime bombs' before Lehman blew up? I sense the old remedy will be at work again if this was to happen, leading to maybe even hyperinflation.
What we don't know for certain is whether this is already distribution stage or not. Price pattern does suggest that it is, but who could be certain.
What we don't know for certain is whether this is already distribution stage or not. Price pattern does suggest that it is, but who could be certain.
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Keep eye on DB, HYG... Canaries signal trouble but so far they been trending up.
