ES Journal - 2016

My initial target was around 1700, yet I will only close upon 2 conditions, I either get stopped out or I will go long when there is strength on monthly chart. It's nothing to do with fear, but a plan of action to make a great return.
 
romik said:
My initial target was around 1700, yet I will only close upon 2 conditions, I either get stopped out or I will go long when there is strength on monthly chart. It's nothing to do with fear, but a plan of action to make a great return.
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wrong way to do it imo

protecting your profits should be your priority, but maybe it speaks to the fact that bears are getting greedy and a squeeze is around the corner
 
recession2016 said:
wrong way to do it imo

protecting your profits should be your priority, but maybe it speaks to the fact that bears are getting greedy and a squeeze is around the corner
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Can you guarantee a squeeze? I see a possibility of it happening, big returns, non-voodoo based ones, are made by holding, not flipping at every junction.
 
recession2016 said:
wrong way to do it imo

protecting your profits should be your priority, but maybe it speaks to the fact that bears are getting greedy and a squeeze is around the corner
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You seem to project your needs and desires onto the markets nearly every day...Sorry, but this has become far too obvious...

At the end of December you were very confident about the market going higher...In early January you were very confident about a bottom in oil...the market did squeeze 135 pts higher in the ES, but that apparently wasn't enough...and now that you want to get short, you see a 200 pt squeeze in the ES...

What you seem to be missing is that at every short term bottom the market will produce a significant rally, but Romik is playing the bigger picture...if this market is sitting at 1580 or so in a few months, you will be telling him the same thing...IMO, you aren't seeing the bigger picture.
 
der_kommissar said:
You seem to project your needs and desires onto the markets nearly every day...Sorry, but this has become far too obvious...

At the end of December you were very confident about the market going higher...In early January you were very confident about a bottom in oil...the market did squeeze 135 pts higher in the ES, but that apparently wasn't enough...and now that you want to get short, you see a 200 pt squeeze in the ES...

What you seem to be missing is that at every short term bottom the market will produce a significant rally, but Romik is playing the bigger picture...if this market is sitting at 1580 or so in a few months, you will be telling him the same thing...IMO, you aren't seeing the bigger picture.
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everyone gets calls wrong, i'm no exception, and this entire year i've been far more wrong than right

that doesn't mean i'm wrong on this call though, a broken clock is right twice a day :D
 
recession2016 said:
everyone gets calls wrong, i'm no exception, and this entire year i've been far more wrong than right

that doesn't mean i'm wrong on this call though, a broken clock is right twice a day :D
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I do agree that a bounce is in the process...Many things lined up at the lows, but 200 pts is a massive move...That is roughly what we saw last October and alot has changed since then (structurally and psychologically)...but heck I can't rule out 1980 and I do have some calls that would like a move like that...
 
romik said:
Can you guarantee a squeeze? I see a possibility of it happening, big returns, non-voodoo based ones, are made by holding, not flipping at every junction.
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i guarantee if there's a squeeze, i'll be there to say i told you so
 
recession2016 said:
yeah but your target is 1700s, that's only about 100 points away

you're up 200 points and i bet if it squeezes to 2000 you'd be kicking yourself, losing 200 points to gain 100

your fear of missing out is clouding your better judgment imo, which would be to take profits and wait for a reshort opportunity
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Got to agree. Risking 200+ pts for 100 pts isn't a good trade, if your target is only 1700 (which doesn't make much sense to me since 1800 is major support) then 1800 is a good place to take your money and run. SPX is still trading within a well defined 1800 - 2100 range, sure it could bust thru this range but odds are it stays in this range until proven otherwise.
 
trickshot said:
Got to agree. Risking 200+ pts for 100 pts isn't a good trade, if your target is only 1700 (which doesn't make much sense to me since 1800 is major support) then 1800 is a good place to take your money and run. SPX is still trading within a well defined 1800 - 2100 range, sure it could bust thru this range but odds are it stays in this range until proven otherwise.
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200 for 100? Did I take profit? S&P hasn't got to 1700 and if and when it does we will see what happens then :)
 
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