ES Journal - 2016

Not over, still...

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i believe we touch -300 YM again...about 50 handles from here

i could be wrong, (could be, i'm probably) but why not tank it here? who's going to hurt?
 
recession2016 said:
i don't understand your short position

if you think it's going to go up, why don't you cover and wait for a bounce to enter short again?
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If you keep pulling out of your position trades, then you would probably miss the big move by taking chunks out of it. My short was initially based on a monthly countertrend pattern, now we are about to tip into a proper bear market, but timing is always a big unknown factor ie will it happen tomorrow or next month (most lose money in option plays), so holding is the way IMO.

I see upside based on a pattern on a 30min chart, will it happen? I don't know, so why would I abandon the short which is in the money now? Catch my drift?
 
romik said:
If you keep pulling out of your position trades, then you would probably miss the big move by taking chunks out of it. My short was initially based on a monthly countertrend pattern, now we are about to tip into a proper bear market, but timing is always a big unknown factor ie will it happen tomorrow or next month (most lose money in option plays), so holding is the way IMO.

I see upside based on a pattern on a 30min chart, will it happen? I don't know, so why would I abandon the short which is in the money now? Catch my drift?
More...

It's a smart way to trade...I view it as a position (long term) short that is hedged with near term calls...Most people who bail out of their position short prematurely struggle to find another low risk entry, but at the same time recognizing where some likely buying (covering) is going to occur gives you the chance to just trade against the short position...
 
recession2016 said:
i don't understand your short position

if you think it's going to go up, why don't you cover and wait for a bounce to enter short again?
More...

In your own words, you didn't take the short at 1940 and missed roughly 140 pts on the downside...Romik's short from last year did take heat, but now he's ridden it down for the duration...Sure, there are some very talented traders who can flip long/short the whole way down, but just perusing the journals recently, many have been getting whipsawed to death by the recent volatility...
 
IMO it's worth checking out weekly/monthly GBPJPY & USDJPY, as they also point to continuation of equity markets weakness.

I also believe that silver has bottomed and there will be a substantial pullback within the current downtrend with a possibility of a total reversal.
 
romik said:
If you keep pulling out of your position trades, then you would probably miss the big move by taking chunks out of it. My short was initially based on a monthly countertrend pattern, now we are about to tip into a proper bear market, but timing is always a big unknown factor ie will it happen tomorrow or next month (most lose money in option plays), so holding is the way IMO.

I see upside based on a pattern on a 30min chart, will it happen? I don't know, so why would I abandon the short which is in the money now? Catch my drift?
More...

yeah but your target is 1700s, that's only about 100 points away

you're up 200 points and i bet if it squeezes to 2000 you'd be kicking yourself, losing 200 points to gain 100

your fear of missing out is clouding your better judgment imo, which would be to take profits and wait for a reshort opportunity
 
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