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ES Journal - 2014
- Thread starter murica
- Start date
weis, there are millions of retail accts out there, none of them have any bearing on yours, this stuff just turns negative and we have to read several ugly tit for tats, not something to look forward toI don't believe that u are long. Post proof
Yeah can we stop the thinly veiled personal attacks. I agree with ammo.
You're still not listening to what I'm saying. I never said that markets can't continue to move in one direction for a sustained period of time. What I am saying is that after 4 or more up days market returns over a 3 to 5 day period diminish greatly. I'm not going to run the numbers right now because I don't want to spend the time but I can say with a fair amount of confidence that after 4 days of rally, even in this market, returns would be negative to flat. I would also guess that the odds of positive returns after a big rally would still be close to negative or at worst 50/50. All my research suggests that buying this market here for the next few days is at best a coin flip with a low R:R.
Also, all respect to ammo, but this market has not rallied 9 out of the last 10 days.
I hear ya, but I think time is a pretty poor indicator. Use something else to determine duration of pops/drops. Volume profile and UVOL/DVOL ratio like ammo, moving avgs, etc. I like intraday cumulative volume and VIX/VXO/VXST/VVIX. But that's just me.
Today is day 9 since the local bottom on Aug 7. Nothing much happened to suggest a change in trend during those several days except perhaps the Ukraine/Russia convoy scare on Friday.
thnx, see it nowit was for RTH 80ish.
i see what you mean iLo.
good to see you banking your decisions on more than i feel bullish, how do you read the cumulative indicator, can you post a chartI hear ya, but I think time is a pretty poor indicator. Use something else to determine duration of pops/drops. Volume profile and UVOL/DVOL ratio like ammo, moving avgs, etc. I like intraday cumulative volume and VIX/VXO/VXST/VVIX. But that's just me.
Today is day 9 since the local bottom on Aug 7. Nothing much happened to suggest a change in trend during those several days except perhaps the Ukraine/Russia convoy scare on Friday.
I hear ya, but I think time is a pretty poor indicator. Use something else to determine duration of pops/drops. Volume profile and UVOL/DVOL ratio like ammo, moving avgs, etc. I like intraday cumulative volume and VIX/VXO/VXST/VVIX. But that's just me.
Today is day 9 since the local bottom on Aug 7. Nothing much happened to suggest a change in trend during those several days except perhaps the Ukraine/Russia convoy scare on Friday.
I think I just demonstrated why it is a decent indicator. It isn't what I use to make my trades however. I was simply making the point that S&P is mean reverting. Which is why buying the S&P right now is trading without any grasp of probabilities. Nothing usually happens to make a "trend" change, it simply does change.
P.S. I get the vibe that you think I'm short, well, I'm not. I simply have hedged my position by selling weekly calls against it.
Adjusting my add to 1985.5 - Day. Still holding an initial small position at 1974.25. No stops at this time.The add was filled for +4.75, while holding a small short from 1974.25.
Now asking 1983 to add to my short position - Day.