ES Journal - 2014

[redbox]

yes and no, the position is underwater until we pullback, but some of the scalps are profitable, so your underwater may go from 8 as it is at the moment to 5 , if the underwater mark is under 20, the corrections are often that and much larger, you need the corrections for the method to work, spx is a mean reversion index

So reduce on a pullback, profitable is a bonus, but the main goal is to stay in until the inevitable larger pull back.

Do you keep reducing during the pull back or put a break even stop once your are back in black?

Thank You.

 

[wiesman02]

This is the type of action where the market normally would have sold off, but it seems like all the algos were shut off and we are just in a dead zone. Looks like the ES will be dead until 2pm

 

[ammo]

day 10 of this move

 

[redbox]

This is the type of action where the market normally would have sold off, but it seems like all the algos were shut off and we are just in a dead zone. Looks like the ES will be dead until 2pm

FOMC minutes today and Jackson Hole tomorrow, so probably treading water until then.

 

[ammo]

So reduce on a pullback, profitable is a bonus, but the main goal is to stay in until the inevitable larger pull back.

Do you keep reducing during the pull back or put a break even stop once your are back in black?

Thank You.

should put in those stops but i dont, could have profited on that move to 37,zilch. there was a big cleave there at 41 in the spx ,i thought we would continue to 28-23 area, rules on the drops are to reduce at wide nips and deep cleaves,in case it reverses, got greedy ,didnt follow the rules,discipline fail

 

[redbox]

day 10 of this move

That's a lot of longs that need to be relieved of their ill gotten gains

 

[pinkman]

hopefully get some nice upside today, then a monster up for T-day crew tomorrow

 

[redbox]

should put in those stops but i dont, could have profited on that move to 37,zilch. there was a big cleave there at 41 in the spx ,i thought we would continue to 28-23 area, rules on the drops are to reduce at wide nips and deep cleaves,in case it reverses, got greedy ,didnt follow the rules,discipline fail

I did wonder whether you took some profits on that dip.

 

[ammo]

That's a lot of longs that need to be relieved of their ill gotten gains

their use to be an in house rule for brokerage firms, if you were telling your customer to by ibm and you knew that there would be up movement in there, you could pre buy on that recommendation and sell it back to your buying customers for a profit, so the rule to avoid that was you had to hold that position for 10 days, you see a lot of these 10 day moves, look at the 10 days previous to the start of that 10 day runup

 

[Mr. Bacon]

I've pulled up the charts. You can back test it. That's true, "some" runs are very strong but it still doesn't change the overall mean reverting action of the market. The last 18 months have been an anomaly. Are you telling me that you are objectively looking at the market buy simply declaring the market is going higher with no data to back up your claim? Lolz.

Also, if you look at the market runs you cited the meat of the move was in the first 4 to 5 days and none of those moves ever made a run over 4ish days without a down day.

Without a doubt, the last 18 months have been an anomaly. But no reason not to embrace it. Need to adapt to what the market is doing - it sure as hell won't adapt to any of us here. When the anomaly stops, time to stop buying all the dips.

My point was that rallies and drops go on for longer than people think they will or want them to. As ammo posted just now, this is day 9/10 of the recent move. It might stop here, sure, but it might not. Just need to play it as it's dished to us.