ES Journal - 2014

Mr. Bacon said:
Without a doubt, the last 18 months have been an anomaly. But no reason not to embrace it. Need to adapt to what the market is doing - it sure as hell won't adapt to any of us here. When the anomaly stops, time to stop buying all the dips.

My point was that rallies and drops go on for longer than people think they will or want them to. As ammo posted just now, this is day 9/10 of the recent move. It might stop here, sure, but it might not. Just need to play it as it's dished to us.
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You're still not listening to what I'm saying. I never said that markets can't continue to move in one direction for a sustained period of time. What I am saying is that after 4 or more up days market returns over a 3 to 5 day period diminish greatly. I'm not going to run the numbers right now because I don't want to spend the time but I can say with a fair amount of confidence that after 4 days of rally, even in this market, returns would be negative to flat. I would also guess that the odds of positive returns after a big rally would still be close to negative or at worst 50/50. All my research suggests that buying this market here for the next few days is at best a coin flip with a low R:R.

Also, all respect to ammo, but this market has not rallied 9 out of the last 10 days.
 
[quote="action

Also, all respect to ammo, but this market has not rallied 9 out of the last 10 days.[/quote]
just going from low to high on the turns action
 
trendline at 86
 

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