ES Journal - 2014

TskTsk said:
...Barely any volume went through at 88.00 for a short time before it went down again.
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What do you think a top (and a bottom) would look like? The smartest of smart money and the dumbest of dumb money are small in numbers (counted in percentage terms). They are matched at top and bottom bars.

There are 78 five-minute bars ( and 130 three-minute bars) in a day. Probs to buy at top bar is around 1%, and the chance to sell is 1%. So just selling at the top (not even shorting) is a hard proposition. Maybe less intuitive, the chance to buy at a top (sell a bottom) is also a hard proposition yet we know that 1% of the volume would do it on each day!

The above analysis tells us that on each single day, 1% make money on short side and 1% on the long side (independent of whether it is a bull or bear leg). Those people have to be paid on each day. In addition brokers needs to be paid as well.
 
tradingjournals said:
What do you think a top (and a bottom) would look like? The smartest of smart money and the dumbest of dumb money are small in numbers (counted in percentage terms). They are matched at top and bottom bars.

There are 78 five-minute bars ( and 130 three-minute bars) in a day. Probs to buy at top bar is around 1%, and the chance to sell is 1%. So just selling at the top (not even shorting) is a hard proposition. Maybe less intuitive, the chance to buy at a top (sell a bottom) is also a hard proposition yet we know that 1% of the volume would do it on each day!

The above analysis tells us that on each single day, 1% make money on short side and 1% on the long side (independent of whether it is a bull or bear leg). Those people have to be paid on each day. In addition brokers needs to be paid as well.
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OK, I think you're making some pretty broad sweeping assumptions here...

I always laugh at the conspiracies of "dumb money" and "smart money"...and the idea that data arranged into bars somehow contains any valuable information vs. other arrangements.

But that's just me.
 
TskTsk said:
OK, I think you're making some pretty broad sweeping assumptions here...

I always laugh at the conspiracies of "dumb money" and "smart money"...and the idea that data arranged into bars somehow contains any valuable information vs. other arrangements.

But that's just me.
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1. It is a factual analysis of bars, which I do not consider assumptions.
2. There is no conspiracy. By the nature of the market and the numbers shown, there would be a small percent of traders who may consistently make money (referred to as smart money), and a continuous recruitment of new money to replace those that consistently lose (called dumb money) to smart money . Smart/dumb money does not mean smart/dumb people.
 
tradingjournals said:
1. It is a factual analysis of bars, which I do not consider assumptions.
2. There is no conspiracy. By the nature of the market and the numbers shown, there would be a small percent of traders who may consistently make money (referred to as smart money), and a continuous recruitment of new money to replace those that consistently lose (called dumb money) to smart money . Smart/dumb money does not mean smart/dumb people.
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1. It considers the assumptions that bars can be "factually analysed".
2. Again you're making pretty broad assumptions...

Look I dont intend to start an argument, I am simply stating that markets are much more complex than what you portray here. What money flows where is incredibly complex to analyse.
 
drownpruf said:
I posted the chart some pages back after you posted your fake entry. Those were executed, not mids or NBBO. It was 90-94 in the five minutes before you posted your 88.00 fantasy short.
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And it was 90-94 at the time he posted his fantasy short 4 minutes after price had already overshot the upper channel resistance line by 2 ticks and the 88.01 high was well over.

TJ could clear it all up by posting the screen shot of his time-stamped entry. This would lend more credence to his models' effective than posting an entry after price has already turned off a key level and moved 11 ticks favorable from the hindsight entry call.
 
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