I think it needs another one day upward blast before the next leg down.
ES Journal - 2014
- Thread starter murica
- Start date
Yes, but several minutes before he posted the hi was 88.01, so he had the wherewithal to announce an entry inside the hi instead of outside it like an old ET-er used to do
Glad to read that you appear to be able to correctly read past prices. Why aren't everyone like you in this regard?
I understand from your post that it would be possible to post a trade before it happens. Could you show me how you would be able to do that?
Scratched it at +1, have a good weekend!
My post indicated that by the time you posted your 88.00 "call" price had already touched upper channel resistance, overshot it by 2 ticks when 88.01 traded and in the several minutes that passed between this price print and your post, price had already traded .11 lower.
I was relieved to see that you chose to post 88.00 instead of 88.01 or, better yet, 88.02 (which was the sort of thing a certain ET member used to do back in the day).
Now if you had posted 5 or more minutes earlier than you did and stated that you were planning to short QQQ at 88.00, that would've been an advance call; if you would've posted 4 minutes earlier than you did and stated that you were short at 88.00, that would've been a real time call; if you would've included a screen shot of your entry at the time you posted, that would've been a documented after-the-fact call.
But indicating several minutes after price hits a key resistance level that you are (or would be) short 1 tick under that swing high comes across as a bit odd.
Does anyone have the numbers (open, high, low, close) for the 5-minutes bar for QQQ that starts at 10:55AM?
One nice thing about markets is that there is only one set of numbers for a given bar!
One nice thing about markets is that there is only one set of numbers for a given bar!
On IB you can look up T&S history. Barely any volume went through at 88.00 for a short time before it went down again. I don't question your entry, but seriously dude, I have to ask.. everytime I see you post in this journal it's always a short entry.. and I almost never see you posting exits. How are you still solvent?
There is a fundamental reason for that: the quality of timing models is tested in the harshest conditions (not in the easiest). That means in a bull market, timing models should be tested in issuing short entries (reverse things in a bear market).
If one uses exams as analogy, the best students are determined in hard exams. Lousy students are those who fail in easy exams. In trading: Successful shorting in a bull market determines the best timing models, and unsuccessful longs in a bull market determines the lousy timing models.
Therefore, I pay attention to those who successfully short in a bull leg and those who are successfully long in a bear leg.
This leads to a number of things (which I might discuss in other posts) such as the correct formulation of test hypotheses.
I posted the chart some pages back after you posted your fake entry. Those were executed, not mids or NBBO. It was 90-94 in the five minutes before you posted your 88.00 fantasy short.
Not disagreeing with you, however I almost never see your exits...so I can't really reach any conclusions on your methodology.
By the way it would seem "shorting in a bull mkt" requires nimbling profits (eat like a chicken) to avoid big losses. That means even if you pick the top, and mkt declines 500 pts the next day, you would most likely have exited way before it reaches the bottom, because you are only nimbling profits and are super risk averse from constantly shorting into heavy bull conditions...