ES Journal - 2013

Quote from ammo:

can't scalp, really can't trade,;lousy at it anyway,just know how to read the charts,very little chance of a news story taking spu's up 40 overnight, one piece of fed sensitive news and that's likely for the downside, 5% stop on 1800 is 90 pt's, contrarian by nature so this suits the personality..hate being long,scared to be long, so i probably wouldn't have the patience to hold for the longer ride,and when these run ups leave a dozen or more fill in spots on that market profile, it's gravy, all mapped out, trading into new highs is uncharted waters,i'm using lines that go back to the depression,back to 02,92, don;t have a lot of faith in those trades,...short story , the market we have been in since 09,climbing on fear , has been great for the reversion schemes and who would the bulls buy from if there weren't a few of us around
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So you keep shorting in anticipation of a rare black swan? You will likely die from a thousand cuts before that happens.
 
Quote from mastacoli71:

DOW 16000 today. 3rd touch on monthly megaphone. Anyone buying here for long term hold coild pay the price. Bulls and bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
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Last 4 years bears have gotten slaughtered. Pigs on the long side couldn't be any fatter or happier.
 
Quote from bpatson:

So you keep shorting in anticipation of a rare black swan? You will likely die from a thousand cuts before that happens.
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if you look at the last 5 years .spu's have had a 20-50 pt pullback every month,just reversion, not a black swan,before you ask, was flat may 2010 for the mini flash
 
Quote from ammo:

if you look at the last 5 years .spu's have had a 20-50 pt pullback every month,just reversion, not a black swan,before you ask, was flat may 2010 for the mini flash
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re: Downside Fear

Aside from weekends, you got fairly reliable stops though. Sure there is slippage during major earning surprises, FOMC, economic data, etc. but the way you manage your risk makes you less prone to such slippage.

Bottomline, I see your logic during weekends, but that's it.
 
Quote from RichardRimes:

You can also trade future options the same way.....as vert spreads...flys..whatever trips

your trigger... That may be what you mean the futures option instead of the cash?
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yes, did mean options on futures :cool:
 
Quote from Trader.Fighter:

re: Downside Fear

Aside from weekends, you got fairly reliable stops though. Sure there is slippage during major earning surprises, FOMC, economic data, etc. but the way you manage your risk makes you less prone to such slippage.

I see your logic during weekends, but that's it.
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Bottomline is 20 pt loss on a max size of 60 contracts, chances of that happening to the upside by the time i have averaged into a full position,which usually starts at a fair distance from last low and at or near a new resistance area, sometimes 3 res areas by the time its a full position are pretty rare and if we do get the 20 pts overnite to the upside,its rarely more so amount willing to risk per month is not exceeded.

Stay in business is the first rule of business, marginal profit is number 2, then it's just finding ways to increase profit,...90 pts on a 60 lot is 225k minimal, amount you're able to sell once it reopens and how many at each price until you are flat could increase that loss...so for the way this strategy is played, the only way to play it to the upside is with a lot of put protection or cross hedging, trading out of several instruments ,longs and shorts with a market that is in berserk mode,just a skill i don't have, this is a kiss method for a simple stupid trader , from the outside it looks stupid because you are underwater for 2 weeks at a time , but it pays 85% of the time ...as long as the fed keeps pumping and the fear of the music stopping is loud and clear, that upside risk will be contained and it's a good strategy, once the music stops and we've corrected greater than 10%, then the upside whips will be back in play and will have to come up with a new plan...when that music does stop and hopefully i didn't flatten at the wrong time, there will be a nice parachute package for retiring this strategy
 
I think a good number of people do. I pretty much only trade the options. Buy or sell the cash only when I absolutely need the hedge. However I'm not a TA or PA type "day" trader.

oops..responding to Visaria
 
Quote from ammo:

Bottomline is 20 pt loss on a max size of 60 contracts, chances of that happening to the upside by the time i have averaged into a full position,which usually starts at a fair distance from last low and at or near a new resistance area, sometimes 3 res areas by the time its a full position are pretty rare and if we do get the 20 pts overnite to the upside,its rarely more so amount willing to risk per month is not exceeded.

Stay in business is the first rule of business, marginal profit is number 2, then it's just finding ways to increase profit,...90 pts on a 60 lot is 225k minimal, amount you're able to sell once it reopens and how many at each price until you are flat could increase that loss...so for the way this strategy is played, the only way to play it to the upside is with a lot of put protection or cross hedging, trading out of several instruments ,longs and shorts with a market that is in berserk mode,just a skill i don't have, this is a kiss method for a simple stupid trader , from the outside it looks stupid because you are underwater for 2 weeks at a time , but it pays 85% of the time ...as long as the fed keeps pumping and the fear of the music stopping is loud and clear, that upside risk will be contained and it's a good strategy, once the music stops and we've corrected greater than 10%, then the upside whips will be back in play and will have to come up with a new plan...when that music does stop and hopefully i didn't flatten at the wrong time, there will be a nice parachute package for retiring this strategy
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My hat is off to your position and money management.

Thank you for taking the time to detail some of the brilliance.
 
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