You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
ES Journal - 2013
- Thread starter Trvlwanderer
- Start date
Long ES (full size) @ 4:03PM EST, swing position.
This chart is busy for illustration purposes.
The 60m Value and Momentum Structure continues to infer that SPX 1625 must be tested to confirm the SPX Trend Line from roughly last Thanksgiving. The SPX presented 1650 Failed Bid with conviction as conveyed by Momentum. SPX 1625 was well defended but the attempt to retest 1650 from below is classically corrective in terms of the Value Formation and 1650 was unable. Furthermore the 50% Fib was unable and that is just a magic number used to measure Momentum. When you can't touch a magic number much less a real number then you clearly have a Liquidity problem. Now we are back down at the line of defense for SPX 1625.
I thought the US desks would try to paint the tape into the weekend back to SPX 1640 but they clearly did not have the order flow to do it even after the Syria event for the day. This is further confirmation that the Liquidity Bias is Negative.
Of course the Dominant Concern underlying the Structure is the Syria situation but now we are dragging that out with posturing and innuendo so I don't see that getting resolved by Tuesday. Nevertheless if the Syria situation materially changes for the better then you have reconsider the Liquidity Context.
Also there are some specific short term reasons to believe that SPX 1635 or 1640 Held Bid is still feasible on Tuesday but that will not be informative in the 60m Interval or higher unless it holds after 1000 CT.
The 60m Value and Momentum Structure continues to infer that SPX 1625 must be tested to confirm the SPX Trend Line from roughly last Thanksgiving. The SPX presented 1650 Failed Bid with conviction as conveyed by Momentum. SPX 1625 was well defended but the attempt to retest 1650 from below is classically corrective in terms of the Value Formation and 1650 was unable. Furthermore the 50% Fib was unable and that is just a magic number used to measure Momentum. When you can't touch a magic number much less a real number then you clearly have a Liquidity problem. Now we are back down at the line of defense for SPX 1625.
I thought the US desks would try to paint the tape into the weekend back to SPX 1640 but they clearly did not have the order flow to do it even after the Syria event for the day. This is further confirmation that the Liquidity Bias is Negative.
Of course the Dominant Concern underlying the Structure is the Syria situation but now we are dragging that out with posturing and innuendo so I don't see that getting resolved by Tuesday. Nevertheless if the Syria situation materially changes for the better then you have reconsider the Liquidity Context.
Also there are some specific short term reasons to believe that SPX 1635 or 1640 Held Bid is still feasible on Tuesday but that will not be informative in the 60m Interval or higher unless it holds after 1000 CT.
Attachments
Quote from horton:
This chart is busy for illustration purposes.
The 60m Value and Momentum Structure continues to infer that SPX 1625 must be tested to confirm the SPX Trend Line from roughly last Thanksgiving. The SPX presented 1650 Failed Bid with conviction as conveyed by Momentum. SPX 1625 was well defended but the attempt to retest 1650 from below is classically corrective in terms of the Value Formation and 1650 was unable. Furthermore the 50% Fib was unable and that is just a magic number used to measure Momentum. When you can't touch a magic number much less a real number then you clearly have a Liquidity problem. Now we are back down at the line of defense for SPX 1625.
I thought the US desks would try to paint the tape into the weekend back to SPX 1640 but they clearly did not have the order flow to do it even after the Syria event for the day. This is further confirmation that the Liquidity Bias is Negative.
Of course the Dominant Concern underlying the Structure is the Syria situation but now we are dragging that out with posturing and innuendo so I don't see that getting resolved by Tuesday. Nevertheless if the Syria situation materially changes for the better then you have reconsider the Liquidity Context.
Also there are some specific short term reasons to believe that SPX 1635 or 1640 Held Bid is still feasible on Tuesday but that will not be informative in the 60m Interval or higher unless it holds after 1000 CT.
1st day of the month 401k money flow. Friday NFP as well. Sep will be interesting to say the least. Buckle up.