ES Journal - 2013

[Lojanica]

Quote from mastacoli71:

1st day of the month 401k money flow. Friday NFP as well. Sep will be interesting to say the least. Buckle up.

I'm with you.

From late 2002 to 2007 market made gains without significant correction for 5 years. That was the definition of the "Central Bank Engineering."

Now we are 4 1/2 years into a bull without a correction for 2 years.

This bull ain't dying yet but the central bank engineering story is getting old. The blowout in 2008 illustrated clearly that the markets are capable of volatility even in the context of a meddling Central Bank. The FED is nearly maxed and the idea is to avoid a meltdown not engineer out all the volatility. With the current global, and domestic financial and geopolitical risk I'd argue for at least 10% if not 15% from our recent top rolling into December. I do believe we're gonna get some volatility from Sept. 3rd through the end of the year.
Fund principals know we're long in the tooth. Many which need to invested bought insurance at the edges.

 

[drownpruf]

Enjoy next week's rally, boys.

 

[horton]

WSJ - Obama to Seek Congressional Vote on Syria Strike
President Says He Is Prepared to Order Military Action, but Wants Support First From Lawmakers

That seems to put a decision off until next week at the earliest, which should relieve some pressure on the Offer.

 

[horton]

Quote from horton:

WSJ - Obama to Seek Congressional Vote on Syria Strike
President Says He Is Prepared to Order Military Action, but Wants Support First From Lawmakers

That seems to put a decision off until next week at the earliest, which should relieve some pressure on the Offer.

Next week being week of September 9th.

 

[startraitor]

Maybe. China had good pmi #s, mostly growth pulled forward like us. Eventually you run out of rope. War, fiscal cliff, boogeyman on the other end of the equation. We could be at 1700 or under 1500 in a heartbeat. I am betting on lower.

Quote from drownpruf:

Enjoy next week's rally, boys.

 

[CahaTrader]

Quote from startraitor:

Maybe. China had good pmi #s, mostly growth pulled forward like us. Eventually you run out of rope. War, fiscal cliff, boogeyman on the other end of the equation. We could be at 1700 or under 1500 in a heartbeat. I am betting on lower.

This isn't backed by any TA or anything but, a move to 1500 right now would be the most telegraphed crash in history. Markets are anti-ultilitarian.

 

[startraitor]

A move to 1500 is a bit more than noise. If you consider that a crash we are both showing our age.

Quote from CahaTrader:

This isn't backed by any TA or anything but, a move to 1500 right now would be the most telegraphed crash in history. Markets are anti-ultilitarian.

 

[CahaTrader]

Quote from startraitor:

A move to 1500 is a bit more than noise. If you consider that a crash we are both showing our age.

-14% is not what I define as a bit more than noise. And for the timeline most people are calling the downturn in, it is crash-esque.

 

[startraitor]

So you must consder a 14% rally a parabolic and unsustainable outlier as well.

Quote from CahaTrader:

-14% is not what I define as a bit more than noise. And for the timeline most people are calling the downturn in, it is crash-esque.

 

[CahaTrader]

Quote from startraitor:

So you must consder a 14% rally a parabolic and unsustainable outlier as well.

Lets not get demeaning here. But the fact is you can make great amounts on a 14% run in the ES in either direction. These are by no means "noise". I'm not sure why you would call them such unless you were holding on a multi-year duration, which I don't believe so.