ES Journal - 2012

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Quote from mastacoli71:

believe me, same boat. not very happy that i am taking this much heat right now but 38 pts in 28 hours on pure speculation is bit of a joke. not too mention nothing has really changed from 3 days ago instead of the typical hope trade.

maybe we are missing something?

No disrespect but the joke is probably that you are trading news and not price.
 
Quote from FreakofNature:

No disrespect but the joke is probably that you are trading news and not price.

actually not really but thanks for the concern. if you look back at how i trade, this is right in line with my style of trading.
 
Quote from mastacoli71:

actually not really but thanks for the concern. if you look back at how i trade, this is right in line with my style of trading.

Hi Mastacoli,

I commend you for having guts to add to your initial position on the biggest and trendiest day so far in 2012.Is this the most heat you've ever taken trading ES? and what's your current average price?
 
Quote from iloveoptions:

Hi Mastacoli,

I commend you for having guts to add to your initial position on the biggest and trendiest day so far in 2012.Is this the most heat you've ever taken trading ES? and what's your current average price?

thx. no, i've taken way more in 2011 and actually puked it several times only to see it do what i knew it would do a day later. all part of the learning curve for me since i only started trading ES 1st quarter of last year. not sure how this one will turn out but i am trading what works for me.

including my options positions, 1302.
 
Quote from mastacoli71:

thx. no, i've taken way more in 2011 and actually puked it several times only to see it do what i knew it would do a day later. all part of the learning curve for me since i only started trading ES 1st quarter of last year. not sure how this one will turn out but i am trading what works for me.

including my options positions, 1302.

Are you short the weekly options?
 
Howdy All,

Rarely post in ET and been a while since I checked into ET, but was doing some research and searching the threads here and found this one and have read the past 50 or so pages to see what was being journaled (sp?). I too trade the futs, been at it a while and days like this are, as someone noted, rare.

Some things I have picked up along the way I thought I would share...if it's helpful, then great.

I covered nearly all of my swing shorts Monday and Tuesday, for any number of reasons, mostly relating to market structure, the number of recent down days, the news flow was decidedly bearish and any excuse could snap the market back up...so I got lucky.

I decided no matter what, that I wasn't going to short this week for a number of reasons...including that this is roll over week, and when markets gets stretched into roll over weeks, they have a habit of snapping hard in the opposite direction, particularly when oversold. Also, the first week of June has an incredibly positive seasonality. I forget the number, but its like 80% that it closes positive for the week.

But assuming none of the above was context for the week, the biggest reason I didn't short today, was something one of my better trading coaches shared with me many years ago...and it's saved my ass (and my mental state) MANY times.

So assuming you have made it through all the BS above here it is....

NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER short on a day when the TICK trades above the zero line for the first 30 minutes (Every data provider is slightly different and slight tick under the zero line doesn't damage this TELL). If it does, odds are HUGE, it is going to be a bullish trend day. In fact the odds as so high, it doesn't pay to try to game the occasional swoon. There have been several days that I have been short coming into the day (either from placing a trade in AH or carrying overnight (rare)), that when I see that, I automatically close out any shorts and walk away, or find a JOT trade. This is especially true if breadth is strong (over +2000 ADD NYSE).

The opposite of this rule (TICK that trades below the zero line for the first 30 minutes) works also, but isn't as reliable (for some unknown reason).

Hope that little tid bit was worth wading through all my BS here. Trade Well!
 
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