ES Journal - 2012

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Quote from ammo:

might see a buy the rumor, sell the news, unfortunately we didn't get the rumor, just the news
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in this mkt, who knows. they were suppose to make this decision over the weekend so it came early. maybe that is why we are seeing a continued bid.
 
Quote from tradinoncoffee:

Howdy All,

Rarely post in ET and been a while since I checked into ET, but was doing some research and searching the threads here and found this one and have read the past 50 or so pages to see what was being journaled (sp?). I too trade the futs, been at it a while and days like this are, as someone noted, rare.

Some things I have picked up along the way I thought I would share...if it's helpful, then great.

I covered nearly all of my swing shorts Monday and Tuesday, for any number of reasons, mostly relating to market structure, the number of recent down days, the news flow was decidedly bearish and any excuse could snap the market back up...so I got lucky.

I decided no matter what, that I wasn't going to short this week for a number of reasons...including that this is roll over week, and when markets gets stretched into roll over weeks, they have a habit of snapping hard in the opposite direction, particularly when oversold. Also, the first week of June has an incredibly positive seasonality. I forget the number, but its like 80% that it closes positive for the week.

But assuming none of the above was context for the week, the biggest reason I didn't short today, was something one of my better trading coaches shared with me many years ago...and it's saved my ass (and my mental state) MANY times.

So assuming you have made it through all the BS above here it is....

NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER short on a day when the TICK trades above the zero line for the first 30 minutes (Every data provider is slightly different and slight tick under the zero line doesn't damage this TELL). If it does, odds are HUGE, it is going to be a bullish trend day. In fact the odds as so high, it doesn't pay to try to game the occasional swoon. There have been several days that I have been short coming into the day (either from placing a trade in AH or carrying overnight (rare)), that when I see that, I automatically close out any shorts and walk away, or find a JOT trade. This is especially true if breadth is strong (over +2000 ADD NYSE).

The opposite of this rule (TICK that trades below the zero line for the first 30 minutes) works also, but isn't as reliable (for some unknown reason).

Hope that little tid bit was worth wading through all my BS here. Trade Well!
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Nice information,Sir. Looks like you have a lot genuine experience.
 
Quote from tradinoncoffee:

Some things I have picked up along the way I thought I would share...if it's helpful, then great.
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It was helpful alright, thanks for it, but your timing sucked big time. Would you mind reposting this on 2013 May 31st, so we would get the info IN TIME???

Just like I could post tomorrow that today is a 2nd gap day (thus shorting the upgap has a high probability), but that would be LATE....

But thanks anyway...
 
Quote from mastacoli71:

short 89.25 and 91.25, avg short 90.25...also short weekly calls 1280, 1285, 1290

240min es attached is the reason behind taking this trade.
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Mr Mastacoli,

2 questions.

As you say and you showed in the chart your reason for going short,because that is "what you see", then at what point did you stop"seeing" or are you still "seeing":confused:

The reason I am asking is that based on you entries you have an average of about 9950 and are currently in the hole for about 25 points . 8 entries and I have guess they were single contracts per entry. I hope:D

2. At what point would you say you are now "seeing" something different?

I hope the unemployment numbers are a shocker to help you out, if they do.
 
Quote from Pekelo:

It was helpful alright, thanks for it, but your timing sucked big time. Would you mind reposting this in 2013 May 31st, so we would get the info IN TIME???

Just like I could post tomorrow that today is a 2nd gap day (thus shorting the gap has a high probability), but that would be LATE....

But thanks anyway...
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Pek ,was nice of him to share,don't be this guy.. http://www.funtrivia.com/askft/Question13839.html
 
ammo,

rollover day have a strong bias in first 15-mins after open to reverse everything happened overnight.

so dropping back to prev day high/close is likely.

Good luck.
 
Quote from mastacoli71:

in this mkt, who knows. they were suppose to make this decision over the weekend so it came early. maybe that is why we are seeing a continued bid.
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my bad ammo. this was a surprise rate cut. it was the china bank reserve requirement that was expected to be cut over the weekend.
 
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