ES Journal - 2012

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Quote from Lawrence Chan:

ammo,

rollover day have a strong bias in first 15-mins after open to reverse everything happened overnight.

so dropping back to prev day high/close is likely.

Good luck.
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thanks LC,30 yr and eur usd ,oil, seem to be watching this fiasco,unimpressed,on a yellin rumor, that's like the essence of stimulus, where's the beef,,still have to fix the too stubborn and always early problem
 
Quote from Macho:

Mr Mastacoli,

2 questions.

As you say and you showed in the chart your reason for going short,because that is "what you see", then at what point did you stop"seeing" or are you still "seeing":confused:

The reason I am asking is that based on you entries you have an average of about 9950 and are currently in the hole for about 25 points . 8 entries and I have guess they were single contracts per entry. I hope:D

2. At what point would you say you are now "seeing" something different?

I hope the unemployment numbers are a shocker to help you out, if they do.
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yes, single contracts but any loss still hurts. actual average with weekly calls i am short is 1302.5. going to wait for RTH to reduce and see how bond markets react at the same time.
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

This does not look too good for those who are short, I`m afraid. :(

A strong close yesterday and drifting higher during after hours.

If we can open around 20 and find support there, we may be looking at a gap fill at 31,50 today from the open.

Jobless claims at 08:30 may change everything, so a lot can happen from here and to the open.
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Another open gap at 50. :mad:
 
Quote from tradinoncoffee:

Howdy All,

Rarely post in ET and been a while since I checked into ET, but was doing some research and searching the threads here and found this one and have read the past 50 or so pages to see what was being journaled (sp?). I too trade the futs, been at it a while and days like this are, as someone noted, rare.

Some things I have picked up along the way I thought I would share...if it's helpful, then great.

I covered nearly all of my swing shorts Monday and Tuesday, for any number of reasons, mostly relating to market structure, the number of recent down days, the news flow was decidedly bearish and any excuse could snap the market back up...so I got lucky.

I decided no matter what, that I wasn't going to short this week for a number of reasons...including that this is roll over week, and when markets gets stretched into roll over weeks, they have a habit of snapping hard in the opposite direction, particularly when oversold. Also, the first week of June has an incredibly positive seasonality. I forget the number, but its like 80% that it closes positive for the week.

But assuming none of the above was context for the week, the biggest reason I didn't short today, was something one of my better trading coaches shared with me many years ago...and it's saved my ass (and my mental state) MANY times.

So assuming you have made it through all the BS above here it is....

NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER short on a day when the TICK trades above the zero line for the first 30 minutes (Every data provider is slightly different and slight tick under the zero line doesn't damage this TELL). If it does, odds are HUGE, it is going to be a bullish trend day. In fact the odds as so high, it doesn't pay to try to game the occasional swoon. There have been several days that I have been short coming into the day (either from placing a trade in AH or carrying overnight (rare)), that when I see that, I automatically close out any shorts and walk away, or find a JOT trade. This is especially true if breadth is strong (over +2000 ADD NYSE).

The opposite of this rule (TICK that trades below the zero line for the first 30 minutes) works also, but isn't as reliable (for some unknown reason).

Hope that little tid bit was worth wading through all my BS here. Trade Well!
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I thought the opposite true. Down trend days are more reliable shorts than up trend days reliable longs. yesterday was simply an error.:eek:
 
If we don`t continue higher from here, we got the 50% gap at 21,50, one point above a prior day high. May provide support or at least a bounce if we don`t get the whole gap fill.
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

Another open gap at 50. :mad:
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that level was support sometime back, hmm, would be interesting to see if it would be a case of support becoming resistance.

will be sitting on my hands today, have a tough time reading the mkt today..
 
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