ES Journal - 2012

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Quote from gmst:

Agreed. 1350 is the minimum target now, possibly even below. Shorting at market open on Monday will prove to be a golden short.
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What if we do get to 1350s but Monday is not the day for it?

Wait to see how we open in relation to technicals on Monday, what if dip buyers show up before we get to your target area, then what, take an unnecessary stop because of your bias? Not acceptable, your bias must be confirmed by price action or you standing on dangerous ground.

A lot can happen over the weekend, particularly in this global driven market.

If what we formulate in our studies is not confirmed by price, we don't have a play, otherwise we are predicting, and that's bad business in trading, price must act as you would have thought it would.

I'm not debating 1350s, in fact, I consider it a nice magnet but Monday is not here and you already have a bias to short the open, I'm not talking technicals, I'm talking approach and mindset.

Just my thoughts.
 
Quote from RedTankEra:

What if we do get to 1350s but Monday is not the day for it?

Wait to see how we open in relation to technicals on Monday, what if dip buyers show up before we get to your target area, then what, take an unnecessary stop because of your bias? Not acceptable, your bias must be confirmed by price action or you standing on dangerous ground.

A lot can happen over the weekend, particularly in this global driven market.

If what we formulate in our studies is not confirmed by price, we don't have a play, otherwise we are predicting, and that's bad business in trading, price must act as you would have thought it would.

I'm not debating 1350s, in fact, I consider it a nice magnet but Monday is not here and you already have a bias to short the open, I'm not talking technicals, I'm talking approach and mindset.

Just my thoughts.
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You raise good points and I would agree with most of your points most of the time.

However in this particular case, NFP has disappointed by a huge margin and this disappointment has happened after many months. As a general guideline, any sharp opposite direction movement in any market that happens after a long period of low volatility or moving steadily in another direction, typically signifies a breakout/breakdown associated with continued momentum towards the other side. We witnessed that recently in USDJPY market. The steep market reaction we saw in bonds and equity indices today is telling me that we are going to see a trend reversal. Also market has been having a hard time staying above 1400. My punt is that NFP will be the catalyst that causes this trend reversal in ES (if not for multi-week then at least for multi-day).

I agree with you questioning whether it will happen on Monday itself or not. But unless things change significantly during European hours on Monday (which I don't expect to happen), then shorting at open with a breakeven stop (after ES moves 10 points in my favor) is a good trade imo. Actually, I am not going to keep overnight, otherwise I think even 1330-40 will be a good target for a swing short trade.
 
Quote from gmst:

You raise good points and I would agree with most of your points most of the time.

However in this particular case, NFP has disappointed by a huge margin and this disappointment has happened after many months. As a general guideline, any sharp opposite direction movement in any market that happens after a long period of low volatility or moving steadily in another direction, typically signifies a breakout/breakdown associated with continued momentum towards the other side. We witnessed that recently in USDJPY market. The steep market reaction we saw in bonds and equity indices today is telling me that we are going to see a trend reversal. Also market has been having a hard time staying above 1400. My punt is that NFP will be the catalyst that causes this trend reversal in ES (if not for multi-week then at least for multi-day).

I agree with you questioning whether it will happen on Monday itself or not. But unless things change significantly during European hours on Monday (which I don't expect to happen), then shorting at open with a breakeven stop (after ES moves 10 points in my favor) is a good trade imo. Actually, I am not going to keep overnight, otherwise I think even 1330-40 will be a good target for a swing short trade.
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Ya, thing is our approach differ tremendously.

I take it a day at a time, I also ignore all news, except their time of release to expect volatility, magnet pinning or technical damage. I stay very far away from analyzing the news because imo the only that pays is price.

Notice all the "bad" news market ignored in 2012. Market can rally on bad news, for whatever reasons, as it can rally on good news, as it can tank on good news, etc. How millions of players around the globe will react to whatever news is absolutely impossible for me to decipher.

There was a time good job data was positive, now good job data could be interpreted as a conflict with QE(x), the main driving force of the market for the past 3+ years, there are so many variables involved, opinions and players, you are better off sticking to price and ignoring all economic releases.

If you don't agree now, I assure you, in time you will.

Best of luck with your trade.
 
Quote from RedTankEra:

There was a time good job data was positive, now good job data could be interpreted as a conflict with QE(x), the main driving force of the market for the past 3+ years, there are so many variables involved, opinions and players, you are better off sticking to price and ignoring all economic releases.

If you don't agree now, I assure you, in time you will.

Best of luck with your trade.
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That is so true. I agree with your methodology to just concentrate on technical damage and price action around important support/resistance levels without paying any attention to news. I also subscribe to this methodology for say 230 days out of 250 trading days in a year. But I would like to have those 20 days every year when I do pay very close attention to news. Thanks for your wishes on the trade. Have a great long weekend.
 
Quote from gmst:

My punt is that NFP will be the catalyst that causes this trend reversal in ES (if not for multi-week then at least for multi-day).

I agree with you questioning whether it will happen on Monday itself or not. But unless things change significantly during European hours on Monday (which I don't expect to happen), then shorting at open with a breakeven stop (after ES moves 10 points in my favor) is a good trade imo. Actually, I am not going to keep overnight, otherwise I think even 1330-40 will be a good target for a swing short trade.
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Here is my take. The market will not fall below 1360 during this cycle, we will make a low by next Wednesday which leads to new 52 week highs and 1425 within six weeks. A gap down at the NYSE open on Monday is an opportunity to look for buys. If you sell a lower open you will likely be squeezed. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Some more unsolicited advice: you need to stop jacking away so much time posting at and reading this website and spend more time working on your trading. Over a thousand posts in a year? Beginning to appear that you are more interested in your interactions here than you are in your business. Bottom line this is a social club, not a forum for professional discussion. Keeping your journal here really is a waste of time. You need to develop sufficient awareness to recognise the benefit or lack of benefit in how you direct your focus.
 
Quote from Zen Student:

Here is my take. The market will not fall below 1360 during this cycle, we will make a low by next Wednesday which leads to new 52 week highs and 1425 within six weeks. A gap down at the NYSE open on Monday is an opportunity to look for buys. If you sell a lower open you will likely be squeezed. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Some more unsolicited advice: you need to stop jacking away so much time posting at and reading this website and spend more time working on your trading. Over a thousand posts in a year? Beginning to appear that you are more interested in your interactions here than you are in your business. Bottom line this is a social club, not a forum for professional discussion. Keeping your journal here really is a waste of time. You need to develop sufficient awareness to recognise the benefit or lack of benefit in how you direct your focus.
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Interesting point of view regarding ES. You have your cycle theory there. Btw, a large portion of these posts (maybe 70%+) has been made in ES journal posting real time calls. But yeah I agree I do spend quite some time on ET. Have definitely benefited and have been exposed to some ideas which have been proven instrumental in developing some setups but signal to noise ratio hasn't been very good.
 
Quote from Zen Student:

Here is my take. The market will not fall below 1360 during this cycle, we will make a low by next Wednesday which leads to new 52 week highs and 1425 within six weeks. A gap down at the NYSE open on Monday is an opportunity to look for buys. If you sell a lower open you will likely be squeezed. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Some more unsolicited advice: you need to stop jacking away so much time posting at and reading this website and spend more time working on your trading. Over a thousand posts in a year? Beginning to appear that you are more interested in your interactions here than you are in your business. Bottom line this is a social club, not a forum for professional discussion. Keeping your journal here really is a waste of time. You need to develop sufficient awareness to recognise the benefit or lack of benefit in how you direct your focus.
More...

Not saying I disagree with your read but for what is worth.....

Anything can happen, prepare for all probable scenarios that fit your trading criteria (as not everything merits pulling the trigger) and if something in your trading plan materializes react based on what occurs.

I don't believe in sure things, particularly in the markets :)
 
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