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ES Journal - 2012
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Quote from gmst:
long 1394.
The way I am looking at this market is that -
Intermediate term trend is lower, however the price today has made a very clear low in the morning and has strongly bounced back, so the possibility that we will end up higher for the day from here also is fairly significant. I basically have a long bias, the only thing to worry is intermediate term downtrend - but my assessment here about the direction of intermediate term downtrend could be wrong, and today might be the day when we go and settle above 1400.
Atlest the price action today smells of the higher bias, especially the sharp way in which we bounced from the morning low. So i will keep my bias for an upmove and new highs for the day.
Not sure what your style is but from a daytrader's perspective the trend is not that important.
You could gap up in an uptrend and immediately hit resistance or you could gap down and immediately hit support.
Much more important to understand where price is opening in relation to S/R or notice any potential technical damages or even broken support/resistance fakes that could produce serious building of momentum.
Trends for daytrading is not very meaningful, price relation to key areas above and below is.
Quote from RedTankEra:
Not sure what your style is but from a daytrader's perspective the trend is not that important.
You could gap up in an uptrend and immediately hit resistance or you could gap down and immediately hit support.
Much more important to understand where price is opening in relation to S/R or notice any potential technical damages or even broken support/resistance fakes that could produce serious building of momentum.
Trends for daytrading is not very meaningful, price relation to key areas above and below is.
Good points, so how do you read today's market action. I saw it as a weak open compared to yday close but immediately price bounced up wards and went to almost yesterday high. That was a very strong up signal for me - and so I am biased up for the day, unless things change.
Quote from gmst:
Good points, so how do you read today's market action. I saw it as a weak open compared to yday close but immediately price bounced up wards and went to almost yesterday high. That was a very strong up signal for me - and so I am biased up for the day, unless things change.
For what it's worth, I saw the open as a strong open. Right into the opening bell we clawed our way to a higher high, and then we got the flush downward to 87.50's. Now based on a couple of things (mostly old, some new), here's what I was waiting for:
1. If we are below yesterday's close, the TICK will almost always close below -600 before the downtrend resumes.
2. Price will oftentimes make a lower low, and then pullback for a 50% entry short.
When the TICK failed to close below -600, and the 50% short did not hold, it was a buy. My entry was 90.25's at 6:43 PST. Because it wasn't one of my classic entries, I did not hold it for a full 3 points.
I have also been dabbling again with volume. I have paint bars that color volume spikes, and oftentimes you can use those spikes as lines in the sand. What does the market do after big money does something in the market? It doesn't really matter if the volume is a buy or a sell, what matters is how does the market react to the price point at which the volume did its thing. I hope that helps!
Quote from gmst:
Good points, so how do you read today's market action. I saw it as a weak open compared to yday close but immediately price bounced up wards and went to almost yesterday high. That was a very strong up signal for me - and so I am biased up for the day, unless things change.
Price opened around the support channel area, morning volatility took it outside the uptrend channel but it quickly snapped back up, signalling a fake breakdown.
There's no catalyst until the unemployment report, and we did take the previous day low, outside bars are rare, so it's now chopping up and down until that catalyst comes.
Morning momentum is where the money is at, the afternoon is where you give whatever you made in the morning back.
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Quote from RedTankEra:
Price opened around the support channel area, morning volatility took it outside the uptrend channel but it quickly snapped back up, signalling a fake breakdown.
There's no catalyst until the unemployment report, and we did take the previous day low, outside bars are rare, so it's now chopping up and down until that catalyst comes.
Morning momentum is where the money is at, the afternoon is where you give whatever you made in the morning back.
ran a quick number in last 2 yrs and 3 months, so a total of 27 months, number of outside days were 55, so roughly 2 days a month.
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