ES Journal - 2012

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Quote from tortoise:

I can't believe I'm typing this (or, more precisely, falling for this) but you may be right when you say "the top is near."

In fact, that "top"--short-lived though it no doubt will be--may be here.

FWIW...
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Just when you think it is in it will run more. I will wait. No sense trying to pick a top.
 
Quote from mastacoli71:

Just when you think it is in it will run more. I will wait. No sense trying to pick a top.
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Oh, believe me, I'm not. It just caught my eye.

No doubt it will be irrelevant by Monday. Or, for that matter, at tomorrow's open.
 
Quote from mastacoli71:

not worth fighting the feds any longer. i am out as well. the last 2 months have worn me down to a nub. i am throwing in the towel as much as i don't like to give up. the market has the feel that it will never correct. probably mean the top is near but i will wait until there is actually a real correction.

good luck to you ammo.
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sit on your hands and wait for a setup there is usually 2 or 3 a day,if you took one each day thats a pretty good week
 
Quote from ammo:

still watching this all time line
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i've been out with shingles, and have missed a lot (and, in a way, not much). would you kindly explain (i'm sure, for the nth time), what this "all-time" line is? many thanks...
 
Quote from ammo:

sit on your hands and wait for a setup there is usually 2 or 3 a day,if you took one each day thats a pretty good week
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Indeed. Cherry pick as needed. Forcing trades under these moves is counterproductive.
 
Quote from tortoise:

i've been out with shingles, and have missed a lot (and, in a way, not much). would you kindly explain (i'm sure, for the nth time), what this "all-time" line is? many thanks...
More...
looks like you swab em for a day or 2 with apple cider and they go away,and i've always heard those herpes breakouts on peoples lips were suffering from no zinc// http://www.earthclinic.com/CURES/shingles.html
 
Quote from tortoise:

I can't believe I'm typing this (or, more precisely, falling for this) but you may be right when you say "the top is near."

In fact, that "top"--short-lived though it no doubt will be--may be here.

FWIW...
More...

Tortoise my friend, thanks for the chart and good to read your posts as usual.

If you walk through a developing profile from Jan 1, you will see value build at 1308, and then after Feb's NFP, you will see value build from 30 to 53, and then almost identically from 53 to 75.

My point is: it's not like this is a nice balanced gaussian with progressively dwindling volume as we reach "unfair highs." Look at the profile from Jan 1 -- peak volume at 05-11, but after Feb NFPs there is a very bulky distribution from 35 to 53, and again a pretty nice filled out distribution from 53 to 75s, with a little gap around 60. In other words, the market seems to have been accepting these higher prices since Feb NFP.

The market could come crashing down tomorrow for all I know, but it's really just a guess, and when someone finally guesses it right, it will probably be because that person guessed already wrong the last 5 times or so and finally got it! :)

Unless there is a serious gap down and nontrending activity, we will again close the week with a higher accepted value than the prior week.

I am seeing 1330 as the absolute lowest this could go before serious, serious buying steps back in to support it, if it were to do a serious correction. Perhaps March NFPs will bring the market back to reality, but who knows.

http://screencast.com/t/Wlf7Rkj6L1
 
Nice chart, tortoise. :)

I`ve been looking at some measured moves myself and depending on where you project and measure from, I get the minimum target around 1400. Next around 1430. Maybe I`m doing it wrong?

Tough to call a top here with Israel buying stocks for $1.5 billion, no?

We are still dicking around in this 60-70 zone though and meeting resistance, with a H&S formation painted the last three trading days. Regardless, I`m simply starting to lose confidence in the big short short from here.

Thank God for day trading. :)
 
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