L1370.00
ES Journal - 2012
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Quote from JoshDance:
Tortoise my friend, thanks for the chart and good to read your posts as usual.
If you walk through a developing profile from Jan 1, you will see value build at 1308, and then after Feb's NFP, you will see value build from 30 to 53, and then almost identically from 53 to 75.
My point is: it's not like this is a nice balanced gaussian with progressively dwindling volume as we reach "unfair highs." Look at the profile from Jan 1 -- peak volume at 05-11, but after Feb NFPs there is a very bulky distribution from 35 to 53, and again a pretty nice filled out distribution from 53 to 75s, with a little gap around 60. In other words, the market seems to have been accepting these higher prices since Feb NFP.
The market could come crashing down tomorrow for all I know, but it's really just a guess, and when someone finally guesses it right, it will probably be because that person guessed already wrong the last 5 times or so and finally got it!
Unless there is a serious gap down and nontrending activity, we will again close the week with a higher accepted value than the prior week.
I am seeing 1330 as the absolute lowest this could go before serious, serious buying steps back in to support it, if it were to do a serious correction. Perhaps March NFPs will bring the market back to reality, but who knows.
http://screencast.com/t/Wlf7Rkj6L1
once again, lovely chart and lucid analysis. yes, i agree. having said that, this is a hard market to figure as so much about it is odd.
the spx chart i posted (yes, with tpo distributions, but still...). each individual profile represents one opex period. note the "p" distributions on the way up that have become a bit less clearly define last month and this month.
also, note the price activity max price at about 1314 or so...which coincides, roughly with that declining tl off the 2007 high.
again, i agree, it's hard to see this thing dropping below 1330. in fact, my heart isn't in the contemplation of any shorts at all these days.
but, under "normal" circumstances, that spx chart would have my attention.
Quote from Laissez Faire:
Nice chart, tortoise.
I`ve been looking at some measured moves myself and depending on where you project and measure from, I get the minimum target around 1400. Next around 1430. Maybe I`m doing it wrong?
Tough to call a top here with Israel buying stocks for $1.5 billion, no?
We are still dicking around in this 60-70 zone though and meeting resistance, with a H&S formation painted the last three trading days. Regardless, I`m simply starting to lose confidence in the big short short from here.
Thank God for day trading.
right, yes, i can't stomach a short now, either. and the israeli news was really striking. no idea what comes next.
i'm just trying to keep my nose to the charts, come what may.
Well, to be fair, buying the dips in a clear uptrend is technical analysis 101, so maybe it is working after all. Just because 1370 have been resistance earlier does not mean it willl last this time.
Not pointing fingers, as I tried to pick the top in this zone more than twice, but now I think I`ll wait for a trend reversal and then enter short on the pullback that always comes.
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