ES Journal - 2012

[JoshDance]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

ammo,

first support at 77-80

Thanks LC --

 

[Trvlwanderer]

Quote from trickshot:

I don't think its wise to arb that. The correlation between the two has weakened considerably recently.

agreed. some folks do though. the flag is now gone and is supporting the es drop. the correlation shifts, but has more correlation over the longer term

 

[bigsnack]

Quote from JoshDance:

Depressing thought but viable -- why do you say so, logically?

I find it MUCH easier to trade with this thought in mind, even if deep down I don't believe it. I find it easier to a) Always assume that I am going to be WRONG when I enter a trade, and b) someone with more money than me can change what I'm seeing at any moment.

 

[trickshot]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

volente told you the answer already - op ex

It is important to clean house quickly (bringing it up way higher and then use sell program to slam it down fast).

first part will induce stops to move higher.

2nd part will create snowball stop run in 1 go.

simply enough?

I don't think its op ex day yet.

 

[gmst]

Quote from JoshDance:

This market entertains me... someone who's been in the game a long time please explain to me:

why did we struggle SO hard yesterday on pretty good RTH volume to break above 87/88s and into Tuesday's range, only to hold 85 easily and bang up to 97 overnight, on low globex volume-- and THEN, sell off super hard all the way back near yesterday's lows, in the span of about an hour?

Good observation. Maybe big guys are manipulating it, pushing it higher on low volume to get a better price to sell at.

Well, if i have a 10 mm account and I specialize in a single low volume stock and if I can control it given my buying/selling power, I will do the same - won't you ? Thats what the guys pumping and dumping pinksheets do.

Yes its definitely harder to do it at index level - even for a biggie 5 bn hf. But maybe the 'combined market' of big guys can do it - and this need not be an organized cartel - just how market tends to behave near extremes - maybe people have done this for decades and its nothing new for big guys.

 

[bigsnack]

Got down to the bottom of a pretty distinct value area from the past 4-5 days. I would assume a bounce / retracement back up from this point. Maybe one more flush lower and then a lunchtime move up.

 

[JoshDance]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

volente told you the answer already - op ex

It is important to clean house quickly (bringing it up way higher and then use sell program to slam it down fast).

first part will induce stops to move higher.

2nd part will create snowball stop run in 1 go.

simply enough?

Sorry, did not see volente's comments.

But isn't opex next week? Are you saying this is in preparation for next week then?

So, your premise is that it moves up to get longs to move stops up, then slams it down hard to take them all out, and now will build a base and move up higher yet again?

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from trickshot:

I don't think its op ex day yet.

enough calls written with fat premium, time to create a selloff scenario to write some puts at lower price level.

still do not understand?

 

[trickshot]

Quote from JoshDance:

Depressing thought but viable -- why do you say so, logically?

We wouldnt be seeing boom and bust cycles and the Naz wouldn't have gone to 5000 if the market was rational or logical.

 

[bigsnack]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

enough calls written with fat premium, time to create a selloff scenario to write some puts at lower price level.

still do not understand?

It's to create a scenario that fools will take the bait on, and then create some pain next week by Friday. Based off of the heaviness of certain call volume. Does that sound about right?