ES Journal - 2012

[gmst]

Quote from trickshot:

We wouldnt be seeing boom and bust cycles and the Naz wouldn't have gone to 5000 if the market was rational or logical.

Yes agreed market always overreaches in both the directions. Remember doomsday call when ES was at 800 than 750 then 700 and then 666....people were calling for 400-.

And then the massive rally ensued.

 

[trickshot]

Quote from bigsnack:

I find it MUCH easier to trade with this thought in mind, even if deep down I don't believe it. I find it easier to a) Always assume that I am going to be WRONG when I enter a trade, and b) someone with more money than me can change what I'm seeing at any moment.

Yep, money moves the market, reason/logic does not.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from JoshDance:

Sorry, did not see volente's comments.

But isn't opex next week? Are you saying this is in preparation for next week then?

So, your premise is that it moves up to get longs to move stops up, then slams it down hard to take them all out, and now will build a base and move up higher yet again?

The rest will depends on the orderflow from this level as leg one is just created in front of you.

Normally people will be driven to go short or liquidate their longs so lower price levels is expected but not necessary.

 

[JoshDance]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

enough calls written with fat premium, time to create a selloff scenario to write some puts at lower price level.

still do not understand?

I REALLY (really) want to understand options and their role in the market more. Is there any kind of written reference (probably not) that will help me get into the kind of things you're talking about? Like, the whole expirations cycle and options process...? Including what motivates option sellers and how they might respond with manipulation of price, for example.

 

[bigsnack]

L82.75s

Edit:

1 or 2 ticks higher and I will put stop to b/e or -1. Target 85.50 / 85.75.

 

[Trvlwanderer]

Quote from bigsnack:

L82.75s

Edit:

1 or 2 ticks higher and I will put stop to b/e or -1. Target 85.50 / 85.75.

looking at the short vic. 84.75-85.75

 

[JoshDance]

short 84.50

 

[Trvlwanderer]

longs at this level looking both hungry and patient. think I'll have a sammich.

 

[gmst]

short 1285 - my hope is I will be able to keep this short the whole day and have a good 10 point + end of day exit in my favor

Stop 1292 btw.

 

[JoshDance]

Quote from Trvlwanderer:

longs at this level looking both hungry and patient. think I'll have a sammich.

So you and the longs are hungry, maybe they'll go get a sammich too so my short will work out here!