ES Journal - 2012

[JoshDance]

Quote from tortoise:

ok, thnx.

my guess--and this is a guess of the sticking-one's-tongue-in-a-canker-sore variety--is that it's a fake-out overshoot, and we'll end the day at new highs.

after all, the economic data was worse-than-expected.

Anything's possible, but in my newfound 100% objective perspective (cough cough), I see no logical basis for that. I do like the support at 83 here, but so far this premise holds no water IMO.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from JoshDance:

This market entertains me... someone who's been in the game a long time please explain to me:

why did we struggle SO hard yesterday on pretty good RTH volume to break above 87/88s and into Tuesday's range, only to hold 85 easily and bang up to 97 overnight, on low globex volume-- and THEN, sell off super hard all the way back near yesterday's lows, in the span of about an hour?

volente told you the answer already - op ex

It is important to clean house quickly (bringing it up way higher and then use sell program to slam it down fast).

first part will induce stops to move higher.

2nd part will create snowball stop run in 1 go.

simply enough?

 

[JoshDance]

Quote from trickshot:

The market is random?

Depressing thought but viable -- why do you say so, logically?

 

[Lawrence Chan]

ammo,

first support at 77-80

 

[gmst]

Quote from Trvlwanderer:

divergence of es and eur/usd has me watching the bull flag on the eur. anyone arbing or trading on that divergence?

Seems like there will be some followthrough on Eur here.

Going long Euro is a better trade imo for taking an outright position. For getting purer alpha, long euro short ES with 1-2 day horizon.

Whole of last month, long ES and short Euro was the trade to be in. much smoother than either outright long ES or outright short Euro. So, it seems the spread is just going through a little pullback and today/tomorrow/day after will be a good opportunity to make money by inverting the last month's spread.

 

[JoshDance]

long 82.75 stop 81.50

 

[tortoise]

Quote from JoshDance:

long 82.75 stop 81.50

really? why?

 

[JoshDance]

Quote from JoshDance:

long 82.75 stop 81.50

out 82.25 for -2 ticks

 

[JoshDance]

Quote from tortoise:

really? why?

base of support at 82.50, one tick to last week's high 82.25, and then a little bounce. But no follow through, hence I got out for a 2 tick loss instead of full.

 

[EON Kid]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

ammo,

first support at 77-80

I like it, looking for a reversal around 80, if not, it may be a down trend day