Agreed, but the 50% level in the range is often significant.
ES Has Bottomed
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Agreed, but the 50% level in the range is often significant.
Fibonacci theory is a self-fulfilling simply because so many people use it. 50% area is the most common. The problem is most people either over complicate it, or are simply unsure of where to start and stop the ratio analysis.
The 50% entry 2388.50 that i mentioned gave a perfect entry short for 3.5 points profit. And 663 contract traded at that number so you could have been fillied if you wanted it.
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I just use it in confluence with other zones. Orderflow imbalances, S/R, Market profile. And to measure the 50% level on a big daily candle. Which is often the best entry like the one 2.hrs 30 mins ago.
I really enjoy your constructive comments. And am also amused at your ability to put down almost every other poster on this really useless thread. Perhaps it should be renamed. The Really Useless Thread. Especially when you use your crystal ball method in calling the ES higher. "Can't claim victory yet, but looking good here." What an EGO. Get points for that. It was the french elections that gave the markets that huge move higher. Not your sceptical analysis. Did you trade it higher?? Perhaps you can post your trades? Then again if you are just learning to trade I guess you didn't. I did.
Fibs could be self-fulfilling if used by enough people but is there any evidence to support your belief that enough people use Fibs to make them self-fulfilling? I suspect the answer is NO. False beliefs and a complete absence of critical thinking seem to permeate these threads when any form of indicators get discussed.
Mr Mysteron, what one sees is what one wants to see!
A real trader does not look to see things that have happened, or that might happen, but does look to see what is actually happening!
It's all about trade location and how you arrive at that location is a personal choice. Like many different rivers lead to the same ocean. It's not worth debating whether Fibs and Elliot wave actually work because sometimes everything works but they may not give your system the expectancy needed to be profitable.
Expectancy is calculated by combining the accuracy and reward-to-risk of any given strategy. The formula is: (% winners x $ per winner) - (% losers x $ per loser).
Last night the ES had a 9 point range. I'm very happy to get 3.5 points from such chop..
It's all about trade location and how you arrive at that location is a personal choice. Like many different rivers lead to the same ocean. It's not worth debating whether Fibs and Elliot wave actually work because sometimes everything works but they may not give your system the expectancy needed to be profitable.
Expectancy is calculated by combining the accuracy and reward-to-risk of any given strategy. The formula is: (% winners x $ per winner) - (% losers x $ per loser).
The other thing 2388.50 was also an s/r level and had an orderflow imbalance, plus with a 50% retrace of the daily bar made it a high probable trade. That's why I took it.
Last night the ES had a 9 point range. I'm very happy to get 3.5 points from such chop..