Epiphany Trading Daily Blog

WED. NOV. 3- How Big Will QE2 Be?

On May 2, 1969, the maiden voyage of a grand ship commenced from Southampton (United Kingdom) to New York City. It took almost five days to sail across the Atlantic with Prince Charles the first civilian passenger aboard the great ship. The ship was heavily utilized in the 1982 Falklands War. In later years, the ship was given a multimillion dollar refurbishment with it eventually going on almost 1,200 miles, having carried over two million people, and having sailed over five million miles. There’s actually a tremendous amount of fascinating history involving this ship- named the Queen Elizabeth 2 aka QE2. Well, over the last few weeks, the moniker “QE2” has taken on an entirely new meaning. For those who don’t know, quantitative easing is a monetary policy utilized by central banks when they want to raise the money supply by increasing the ‘overage’ of the other banks, i.e. piling more paper (or electronic) fiat into the banks. The idea is discussed when all of the traditional vehicles to influence the money supply such as lowering interest rates have failed. It works by ostensibly creating money out of nothing and then does thing like purchase government bonds from banks which infuses the system with fiat currency. No matter what anyone thinks of the policy, it is highly likely to be implemented today at the conclusion of the two day Federal Reserve meeting. TARP was QE1 for anyone who doesn’t remember. In any case, the markets have built in a big program (think a $500-$700 billion plus bond repurchase based on the chatter in papers such as the “Wall Street Journal,” “The New York Times,” “Washington Post,” and so forth). Thus, the size, stature, and composition of said QE2 package will potentially have a dramatic impact on trading for sometime to come with the most immediate-term impact coming just after 2:15PM ET.

In Asia, markets were higher overnight with Hong Kong up 2%. The trend was the same in Europe with Frankfurt and London both up 0.2%. The dollar is marginally mixed with gold and oil both ahead nicely. ADP came in stronger than expected at 8:15AM ET (43K vs 23K expected), ISM Services (53.4) and Factory Orders (1.7%) are due out at 10AM, Crude Inventories at 10:30AM, and Auto and Truck Sales at 2PM. The biggie of course is the FOMC Rate Decision due out at 2:15PM. Futures are a bit higher. The election results came in about as expected. The QE2 talk is beginning to settle in now with a widespread expectation of a minimum $500 billion program with some language about more buying if need be. Look for a fairly slow trading session for the bulk of the day with prices hovering in positive territory. Pay rapt attention to the numbers at 2:15PM with particular attention to the language…seek phrases like “$500 billion bond purchase” and “we stand by monitoring the situation closer ready to buy more.” The focus through 2:15PM will be on the casinos, the earnings plays, PDE and all of the stocks in its sector based on the potential for a buyout, and big cap tech. After 2:15, look for very fast and illiquid conditions on momentum with a focus on relative strength and weakness with a time horizon of seconds for a trade. Up until 2:15, pick spots and be comfortable trading with size with need be; after 2:15, no matter what, cut down on size if trading for immediate-term moves due to the likely increased volatility.
.



Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

DIN- closed near a high after posting good earnings

MHS- closed near a high after posting good earnings

CGNX- closed near a high after posting good earnings

AMSC- closed near a high after posting good earnings

IVAC- closed near a high after posting good earnings

WTI- closed near a high after posting good earnings

NTRI- closed near a high after posting good earnings

APC- closed near a high after posting good earnings

BORN- closed near a high

BIDU- closed near a high

AAPL- closed near a high

LVS- closed near a high

MCP- closed near a high

HIG- good earnings

STEC- decent earnings

OPEN- phenomenal earnings

OKE- decent earnings

PBI- decent earnings

TRMB- decent earnings

RADS- decent earnings

SNCR- decent earnings

AMZN, FFIV- featured on “Mad Money” last night

PDE- reviewing strategic options following new Seadrill (of Norway) approach

SNCR- decent earnings

WWWW- decent earnings

TAL- closed near a high after SAC capital reported a 8.7% stake in company

TORM- closed near a high

ESRX- closed near a high

WBSN- closed near a high

OSG- closed near a high after posting good earnings

AET- decent earnings


Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

RTI- closed near a low after posting bad earnings

OEH- closed near a low after posting bad earnings

EOG- bad earnings

CTRP- bad earnings

ERTS- poor earnings

LEAP- poor earnings

LNC- poor earnings

SONS- poor earnings

CQB- poor earnings

DISCA- poor earnings

PLT- poor earnings

NANO- poor earnings

HCP- share offering

CIM- share offering

BIO- uncovered accounting irregularities

CVS- poor earnings

GRMN- bad earnings

JRCC- poor earnings

PWR- poor earnings

TGB- Canadian regulator rejected a mine plan of the company





Earnings:

WED NOV 3 BEFORE

AET AGU ANR

AOL ARE CTL

CVS DVN EP

GRMN JRCC MGM

PHM PWR Q

RRD SPW TDW

TRW TWX WLP

XEC

WED NOV 3 AFTER

AMLN BGC CAR

CNW CVD DOX

FRPT FRT GNK

HCN IPI IT

JCOM LBTYA MELI

MPWR MUR ONXX

PL PRE PRU

QCOM RIG THQI

VCLK WFMI


Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
 
THURS. NOV. 4- Old School Vs New School

In early August, on my beloved younger daughter’s 2nd birthday, I wrote this piece about a ‘new’ type of trade I have begun to do a little more in attempting to adapt to the changing markets:

http://www.capitalmarketforum.org/entry.php?119-FRI.-AUG.-6-The-Fakeout-Leading-To-Two-Trades

Upon speaking with a friend who has a good 30 IQ points on me but was a bit confused about how to differentiate between ‘old school’ and ‘new school’ breakouts, I want to address the difference a bit before I begin to discuss other nuances that have begun to occur somewhat frequently over the last few weeks as I continue the ‘change’ theme as has been noted here often since the changing over of Direct Edge to a stock exchange. I described in the Aug. 6 piece an example of a stock that breached a high, failed, and then got slammed. Today, I want to give two definitive examples to try to differentiate situations.

Example 1: On Friday July 30, AIG (AIG) came out with good earnings and the stock marched higher in the early going. It rallied from 40.50 to 42 over the first 30 minutes of the post-NYSE open. At 10AM, the stock burst through the 42 resistance level in popping rapidly after a huge offer was present at 42. It touched 42.19 (although on a couple of ticks) as most of the volume took place between 42 and 42.10. When it breached 42 to the downside, it flopped in declining 30 cents in the next minute. This compares to the move in AIG on Thursday August 5 that started just after 10:45AM ET. The stock had traded in a relatively narrow 50 cent band between 40.50 and 41 on no new news. When AIG took out its low, it went to 40.47 and failed. But instead of exploding higher, it only bounced to 40.55. It then tested the 40.47 spot a couple more times, each time bouncing to a lower high. When the stock breached 40.47 after a long stretch of consolidation, it rapidly fell 25 cents in continuing the trend over the next few minutes.

Example 2: Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) came out with some positive drug data yesterday morning. The stock rallied to almost 39 in the fertile pre-opening trading hours. As 9:30AM ET approached, the stock slowly began coming back in as it opened exactly unchanged at 37. It popped to 37.20, but came in slightly. It breached 37 in ticking to 36.97 on big volume. Shortly thereafter, the stock went to a refreshing 37 bid/buyer and then blasted off in flashing to 37.55. Compare that to what happened a few minutes later. The stock came right back down and consolidated around 37 anew for a few minutes. This time, it cracked to 36.56 in two minutes.

So, what was the difference in these trades? In the first trade in each example, the stock had moved on significant news. When the stock tried to keep going in the trend, it came right back to the major entry point (long in AIG, short in VRTX respectively). Using the AIG example, in the first trade, the stock tried to rally and fail thus the trade was to short it just below the neckline of the 42 at 41.98/41.97 with an out just above 42. In the second trade, the trend was much gentler and there was no real bounce. Ergo, when it failed to truly uptick as the market was declining at the time, AIG was a short in that example as well in the 2nd scenario. In the VRTX example, the stock refreshed on the 36.97 bid thus the trade here was to short it thru 37; when wrong, exit just above 37 and then go long immediately as there was a refreshing buyer at 37 with the aim of buying more thru the high in the first scenario. In the second example, it was a case of try try again as after more consolidation, one should try to short the stock through the new low of 36.97. Thus the career question in the immediate-term: how does one know exactly what to do…and when to do it? The truest answer should be prefaced as follows: there is no certainty to anything- particularly nowadays- but one can definitively play odds. In both examples, there was a lot more consolidation in the 2nd scenario than the first. In both examples, the market was trending correctly in the direction wanted for the trade in the 2nd scenario as compared to the first. In both examples, the trade went opposite as one would think it would- and quick in the first scenario but took its time and eventually worked in the 2nd scenario. Thus, the way I am playing these things is to try and play the opposite of the traditional play which I’ve utilized for 15 years if I don’t have the market with me strongly along with consolidation yet I will do the ‘normal’ play with the consolidation and the market. When doing the ‘new’ play off of the algorithms, the goal is to wait until the breakout/breakdown fails and going with it with an exit just below/above breakdown. When doing the old school play, the rules remain the same except that the set-up takes even longer to form and may not work absolutely positively immediately. As I’ve been saying for weeks now, one has to adapt when necessary- this is one of those times.

Markets rallied strongly throughout the world overnight with markets up 1.5%-2% both in Asia and in Europe. Commodities are sharply ahead with gold up 2% and oil up 1.5% as it is now notably above $85/barrel. The dollar is little changed against the yen but down significantly by ¾% against the euro. Jobless claims (445,000) are due out at 8:30AM along with productivity (0.9%). Futures are indicating a resumption of the massive dollar-depreciation fueled rally this morning. For the day, as long as the dollar stays weak, look for the rally to build on itself a bit before the market consolidates and quiets later ahead of the jobs report tomorrow. Focus on the earnings plays (many notable companies such as QCOM are moving a lot this morning), big cap momentum plays should the speed of the market pick up as it did yesterday afternoon, relative weakness plays particularly this morning, and the fertilizers on POT’s overnight news.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

PRU- decent earnings

QCOM- good earnings

WFMI- good earnings

VCLK- decent earnings

IPI- decent earnings

ZUMZ- good earnings

HCN- decent earnings

MTZ- good earnings

BGC- decent earnings

FFIV- closed near a high

CCME- closed near a high

DPW- closed near a high after posting earnings

PRX- closed near a high after posting earnings

MOTR- closed near a high after posting earnings

RLD- closed near a high after posting earnings

SNCR- closed near a high after posting earnings

MGM- closed near a high after posting earnings

CATM- closed near a high after posting earnings

LINC- closed near a high after posting earnings

WNC- closed near a high after posting earnings


AMZN- closed near a high

AAPL- closed near a high

GGAL- closed near a high

CCCL- closed near a high

CBEH- closed near a high

BTU, SODA, LINE- featured on “Mad Money” last night

PUDA- closed near a high after announcing an agreement to buy additional coal mines under Pinglu Project Phase II

TDC- decent earnings

TWC- decent earnings

SU- decent earnings

APA- decent earnings

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

MELI- bad earnings

MUR- bad earnings

DOX- bad earnings

MPWR- bad earnings

CVD- poor earnings

FRPT- poor earnings

JCOM- poor earnings

CHK- poor earnings

QLIK- poor earnings

POT- Canadian government did not give BHP deal its approval

ESI- closed near a low

CTRP- closed near a low after posting earnings

HSNI- closed near a low after posting earnings

LAMR- poor earnings

KSS- poor same-store sales


Earnings:

THURS NOV 4 BEFORE

APA ATPG AUXL

BDX CBOE CNQ

CVC DLR DNR

DTV HNT HOC

HUN LIZ MAC

PCG PCS PDE

SIRI SU TDC

TWC UPL VRX

WCG WPI

THURS NOV 4 AFTER

ALKS ATVI BID

CBS CEDC CF

CLWR CROX DLB

DVA FLR HANS

IRF JAZZ KFT

MCHP MGA MHK

NFG PSA RSG

SBUX SD SWKS

TSO


Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
 
FRI. NOV. 5- Being There When You Need To Be There

My wife went into labor in the middle of the night for both of my kids. I had not one, but two late night dashes to the hospital with my younger one (Samara) actually arriving at 5:25AM. It’s funny what one remembers about those times, but something that the obstetrician told me came right back to me. I was joking around with him to ease the tension a bit about 45 minutes before my Samara was born. I commented how we should really keep doing this in the middle of the night. He laughed a little. But I quickly noticed how tired he was and asked him if being on call ever weighed on him. He said “It comes with the territory and it’s what I gotta do if I want to deliver babies.” Basically what he said was so simple…so obvious…but so important. Other than the mommies planning C-sections, it is of course impossible to predict exactly when a woman will give birth so arriving at the hospital at 4AM is something one just has to do if one wants to be in the baby delivering game. It’s the same with trading. We all have our routines as far as how much time we need. But it is of paramount importance to adjust upwards and downwards the time we need to be in the office based on the markets. I was incredulous yesterday when someone commented in our chat room that he’d left his desk for lunch. Yesterday was one of the more frenetic days in recent memory. The concept of leaving my desk yesterday for more than a couple of minutes to take a much needed walk to rest eyes and clear my head was beyond my comprehension. I know that as the holidays come closer, it’s going to slow down in all likelihood so the long lunch breaks can be taken then- not yesterday- for those inclined to get a sandwich rather than try to earn a few extra hundred dollars. I am also always stupefied beyond belief when someone walks out of the door before 15 minutes after the close. Forget the fact of being woefully unprepared for the next day. How can one have time to properly review one’s trades for the day when it is freshest in one’s mind? But on point, on a day like yesterday when prices moved dramatically, it is imperative that people understand what is going on and what their own trading meant to them. I don’t expect people to begin studying the overnight markets at 4:45AM ET (rather than my normal 5:30AMish) as I did on a day like yesterday when I knew it’d be busy. Furthermore, as a day trader, I in no way feel that my work is as important as that of an obstetrician. But like any good obstetrician, I know when I have to be at work and adjust accordingly to pointedly be there when need be.

Markets overnight in Asia continued to rally with Hong Kong up 1.4% and Tokyo up an impressive 2.9%. Markets are up slightly throughout Europe though on the heels of the jobs report. Gold is down almost 1% but oil is up ½%. Bonds are down notably with the dollar stronger across the board. The jobs report came in much stronger than expected (151K jobs created vs 91K expected). Pending home sales (2.5%) are out at 10AM and Consumer Credit is out at 3PM (-$3.5B). The reaction this morning was muted, but not surprising. There was a flurry of action to the upside, but as the dollar strengthened, the rally dissipated. For the day, everything should be much more muted. With the dollar so strong, some profit taking should be expected but if it doesn’t happen almost immediately, the markets will likely have a mini-short covering rally. Regardless, the deltas of the move should be less than yesterday. Focus on the many earnings plays out, the momentum plays from yesterday if the markets get fast (particularly the smaller caps closing at or near their highs), and the relative strength plays.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

JAZZ- good earnings

MGA- good earnings

RBCN- decent earnings

SBUX- decent earnings

BID- decent earnings

NILE- decent earnings

FLR- decent earnings

EZPW- decent earnings

WRLS- decent earnings

TTMI- decent earnings

TEVA, HAIN- featured on “Mad Money” last night

GS- closed near a high

SHS- closed near a high after posting good earnings

FCX- closed near a high

BUCY- closed near a high

JOYG- closed near a high

MAC- closed near a high after posting good earnings

TBL- closed near a high after posting good earnings

SNCR- closed near a high

HURN- closed near a high after posting good earnings

LPS- closed near a high after posting good earnings

CXO- closed near a high after posting good earnings

CIR- closed near a high after posting good earnings

MTZ- closed near a high after posting good earnings

VOLC- closed near a high after posting good earnings

CHSI- closed near a high after posting good earnings

SMSI- closed near a high after posting good earnings

GTS- closed near a high

JPM- closed near a high

LVS- closed near a high

IBM- closed near a high

NEWN- closed near a high

MXC- closed near a high

SCCO- closed near a high

JWN- closed near a high

VMC- closed near a high

TLEO- closed near a high

AWI- decent earnings

CVH- decent earnings

SOL- decent earnings

RSTI- decent earnings



Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

SWKS- poor earnings

CF- bad earnings

CROX- bad earnings

RRGB- terrible earnings

MCHP- poor earnings

MHK- poor earnings

MED- poor earnings

AMKR- poor earnings

JDSU- poor earnings

DLB- poor earnings

MRX- poor earnings

DXCM- poor earnings

CCIX- poor earnings

INSP- poor earnings

CLWR- poor earnings

RSG- poor earnings

SD- poor earnings

IOC- convertible notes offering

DNDN- closed near a low after posting poor earnings

LIOX- closed near a low after posting poor earnings

VRTX- closed near a low

FFIV- closed near a low

KFT- poor earnings

GCA- closed near a low after posting poor earnings

APOL- closed near a low after a probe into its business by the Federal government widened

AIG- poor earnings

CEDC- poor earnings

FCN- poor earnings

JKS- follow-on offering at 36

Earnings:

FRI NOV 5 BEFORE

AMT AWI BZH

CVH DISH FCN

FIG FWLT MIR

PXP RSTI SOL

VTR YRCW

Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
 
MON. NOV. 8- The End Of A Relationship?

We’ve all had a subject in high school and/or college we could not conquer. Mine was 1991 era CADD (computer aided drawing and design). I was good at algebra, calculus, typing, and held my own in physics. But no matter how many hours I spent pouring over the computer and studying what it was I need to do, I could not grasp the concepts –basic 11th grade concepts. I stayed after school, I’d come before school hours, I’d miss lunch, my teacher would try to explain the stuff to me…next to nothing. Now, every so often, I’d have what I thought was a breakthrough and do something right…only to slip right back into the fog. The bigger force of not understanding in general could not make up for the mini-bursts of understanding tiny points. This is sort of what happened Friday in the stock market and may be signaling a change through, say, the end of the year. It started relatively early when the jobs report came out much stronger than expected at every level. In turn, this sparked a rally in the dollar- almost a full yen and about 1.5 euros. The ‘dollar’ trade has been used in almost inverse correlation with every major asset out there. Yet financial stocks were strong Friday, gold traded higher, bonds were marginally weaker, and stocks barely budged with the S&P 500 closing ahead 0.4%. So, what gives? There are four main forces at work. First, we are beginning to get the pile-on effect of money managers chasing performance after trailing benchmark indexes for most of three years. Second, earnings growth is exceeding expectations as has been evidenced by the 90% or so of the S&P 500 companies which have reported earnings. Third, if most people are getting a low rate of interest on their cash accounts, they are almost forced to seek out higher risk returns. Finally, the fact that there will supposedly be $600 billion in new currency created out of thin air (with other nations threatening to do the same) is only inflationary. Thus it causes prices of all assets to rise. The fact that the dollar had a slight contra-move cannot shake the titanic forces of money managers, earnings growth and particularly the Fed stepping on the gas full throttle in Equity Land. So, as we move forward, the relationship between the dollar and stock performance is likely to fray on a day-to-day basis with the market largely buffeted by the depreciation of fiat currency overall and the mountain of money being put to work by money managers and the Feds.

Markets in Asia were higher overnight with Toyo up 1.1% and Hong Kong ahead 0.4%. Prices turned a bit lower in Europe with Frankfurt down 0.2% and London down 0.4%. Gold and oil are down slightly, bonds are weaker by a touch as well, and the dollar is nicely ahead once again against the euro. On a cold sleet-filled morning in Metropolis, the dollar is seemingly the lead cog this morning in leading futures down slightly but not dramatically (in-line with the theme of the blog today). News flow is relatively low and there is no economic news this morning. Look for a quiet day overall with a focus on the casinos, small caps which had momentum on Friday, and BA on its news along with the stocks relevant to the story (PCP, et al).

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

AERL- closed near a high after issuing good preliminary 2011 guidance

KS- closed near a high

IOC- closed near a high after pricing its share offering

GS- closed near a high

UEIC- closed near a high after posting good earnings

DLB- closed near a high after posting good earnings

TTMI- closed near a high after posting good earnings

IRF- closed near a high after posting good earnings

GXDX- closed near a high after posting good earnings

ROSE- closed near a high after posting good earnings

SOLR- raised earnings guidance

DECK- closed near a high

CTV- rumored to be about to receive a 2nd takeover bid

LULU- closed near a high

FWLT- closed near a high for the 2nd day in a row since posting earnings Thursday morning

TGA- closed near a high

GPRE, MGM- featured on “Mad Money” on Friday

ATHX- received FDA OK for Phase II trial of Multistem





Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

JKS- closed near a low after announcing their 3.5 million share offering would be priced at 36

DNDN- closed near a low on continued downward momentum from last week’s earnings report

PODD- closed near a low after competitor DXCM indicated a delay in the expected approval timing of the CGM enabled OmniPod pump

BA- deliveries of 787s could be delayed up to 10 months

MDVN- poor earnings

CO- closed near a low after pricing a follow-on underwritten public offering of 8.05 million shares at 4.50

RBCN- closed near a low in a major reversal after posting earnings

Earnings:

MON NOV 8 BEFORE

FTR KWK LPX

WCRX

MON NOV 8 AFTER

CLNE HOLX LDK

MDR MR PCLN

RAX SLXP UDR

VVUS



Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
 
TUES. NOV. 9- Trading When It's Time To Trade

Part of me simply wants to re-post a blog from a few weeks ago and leave things be. I won’t do that although the link is here: http://epiphanytrading.blogspot.com/search?q=the+charlie+brown+torture

In the piece, I desperately tried to hammer home the notion of not doing every single trade you see because particularly when the overall market is stagnant, many of the trades you do during the quiet periods will result in losses. The more trades you do, the more you lose. It sounds to me like a recipe for rocketing oneself to the poorhouse, paraphrasing one of TV’s renowned philosophers, Al Bundy of “Married…With Children.” Yet despite my repeated pleas that this was one of the more important blogs I’d written, I don’t know if I quite grasped the attention of all that many people. All day in the chatroom and orally, I heard of many set-ups which were simply momentum plays during times in which the S&P 500 was trading in a two hour range of two points. I heard/read comments like “I’m bored.” Or “I’m just trying to find something.” Or worse yet, people calling out (and doing) plays in which I noted three or four times that movement was likely not to be exaggerated (and I was exonerated more often than not). It’d be so easy for me to day-in, day-out comment how great stuff looks or how one should “load up” on hyperliquid stocks. But I cannot do that because I have to look myself in the mirror. Things are gradually slowing down and will only get less intense barring some piece of unforeseen circumstance as we approach Thanksgiving. So, please, take advantage of the still plentiful opportunities out there and do them in size –but only at the right time- and do not trap yourself in oh so many plays that look oh so tempting, but just, frankly, result in losses net-net. It’s OK to trade things small when things aren’t moving dramatically just to test out the waters, but it is financial suicide to treat a play that one would do at, say, 9:36AM ET with the market moving with a trade at 12:11PM when the market is barely budging.

Markets were down in Asia overnight after Chinese government officials against issued bombastic comments about QE2 stoking fears of protectionism. Tokyo closed down 0.4% and Hong Kong was off 1%. However, the opposite occurred in Europe as a weaker dollar and continued ascent in dollar-denominated assets sparked a rally with bourses up either side of 0.5%. Gold is up just shy of 1% with oil up ½%. The dollar is slightly weaker against the euro but more so against the yen with the dollar-yen around 80.60 now. Futures state-side are up marginally. The only economic data of the day is Wholesale Inventories (0.6%) at 10AM ET. Look for another quiet day overall with stocks likely to maintain a slight upside bias. Keep an eye on the dollar and gold if moves there get exacerbated. The focus stock-wise will likely be on the earnings plays, the solars with a bevy of the smaller ones having reported earnings, select play in the news such has DF with its CEO having resigned, and relative weakness and strength plays in what will likely be a generally neutral tape.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

PCLN- great earnings

SLXP- decent earnings

MDR- decent earnings

LDK- great earnings

HOLX- decent earnings

UDR- decent earnings

APEI- great earnings

ANR- closed near a high

SCOK- closed near a high

IDT- closed near a high after announcing a spin-off of its energy division

CGA- closed near a high

JOBS- closed near a high

BORN- closed near a high

CCJ- closed near a high

INS- closed near a high

UEC- closed near a high

ASH- closed near a high after announcing the sale of its distribution business

FOSL- great earnings

JASO- good earnings

TYC- decent earnings

COV- decent earnings

YHOO- takeover speculation that Alibaba’s founder was approached to see if he was interested in taking part in a bid to buy the company

ATLS- to be bought out for 43.34 by CVX- 38.25 in cash and 5.09 in pro-rata APL shares

EBIX- decent earnings

NCT- decent earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

RAX- poor earnings

CLNE- poor earnings

MFN- poor earnings

SNTS- poor earnings

MR- poor earnings

WCRX- closed near a low after announcing poor earnings

GS- closed near a low

BTN- closed near a low

BLK- share offering of about 51 million @ 163/share

DF- poor earnings and CFO resigned

SOLF- poor earnings

AKAM- Seeking Alpha reports that company will likely lose business to LVLT and LLNW

Earnings:

TUES NOV 9 BEFORE

CHD COV CRME

CRZO DF EBIX

ENER FOSL HOGS

JASO MMC ROK

SOLF TNDM TYC

TUES NOV 9 AFTER

AONE HRBN IGT

LOPE MBI RAH

TSLA URS



Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
 
WED. NOV. 10- Focusing On The Big Picture

On May 14, following several discussions the previous day, I wrote a piece about a topic that seems to be very cut and dry from a pure logical standpoint. I literally pleaded for anybody who disagreed to comment and never heard any feedback- negative or positive. We had a 10 minute discourse on it in our morning call that particularly Friday. I asked orally if anybody disagreed from a logical standpoint with my main point to please comment. Silence. And yet, on a nearly daily basis, the main thrust of the piece is thrown into focus by what I consider to be some really inane comments. This was the piece:

http://epiphanytrading.blogspot.com/search?q=push+it+real+good

I am going to try to tackle this from another angle. I should first note that I’ve written many ‘getting back on the horse’ pieces if one finds themselves down money on a given day. But precious little is written about ‘winning’ thus I am going to give this another more forceful “go.” I’ve been fortunate enough to have had a career which has provided me with a means to put food on the table and a roof over the heads of my children. I’ve had some great years of trading whereby I’ve done significantly better than covering the bills so to speak. But as I’ve maintained for many years, the happiest day of my professional life will be the day I am able to walk out of my office and ever come back. Don’t get me wrong. Please don’t get me wrong. I am blessed with more friends than anyone I know and consider myself fortunate to know every single person in my office right now much less ostensibly everyone who walked in the door and/or chatted me up. I do not take lightly the fact that I’ve been fortunate enough to play a computer game for many years for income rather than a much harder vocation such as, say, washing the 32nd floor of the Empire State Building on a 14 degree day. But this isn’t about friendships or counting my (many) blessings. This is about having a goal and working toward it. For me, I yearn for the day when I don’t awaken at 5:15AM on a Wednesday morning and feel like I slept in much less a period where I am able to ‘give back’ much more than I do at present. Anybody reading this, I am sure, has different things they want in this world whether they be material, intangible, or significantly life-changing. Thus, in the scheme of things, does it make a difference whether one is ahead $1,000 or down $1,000 at 9:35AM? From both a macro *and* a micro vantage point, the answer is “no.” Nobody should change what it is they are doing except to change in accordance with the markets…but not their mindsets. By that, I mean if the market is presenting itself with multiple opportunities, take advantage of the opportunities without holding yourself back just because you happen to be slightly richer than you were a few minutes ago. So, why, why, why, why, why , why is it that people who are ahead, say, a very small $300-$400 at 9:45AM talk of leaving for the day and are not only admonished, but they are encouraged to do so?! Isn’t the ‘best’ trader the one who makes the most money? Isn’t a goal or an end to all of this (again, with mine doing the best I can now so I can eventually move on to what will hopefully be an early and fulfilling requirement)? How can I, for instance, settle for a good few minutes of action when the goal is not the day, but the career? So, really, if you are fortunate enough to get off to a good start to a trading day, think of it as a baby step to your ultimate goals…not a day ender.


Markets in Asia were mixed overnight. Tokyo rallied 1.4% on the weaker yen. But Hong Kong fell about 1% after China once again raised their reserve requirements in an attempt to stem surging capital inflows. Prices are moderately down in Europe with London down 0.4% and Frankfurt off 0.3%. The dollar is slightly stronger across the board with commodities slightly weaker across the board. Bonds had an aggressive sell-off yesterday and are extending those losses this morning as well with the 10-year yield back over 2.70%. Jobless claims came in generally as expected, the trade balance slightly better, and import prices in-line. Crude Inventories are out at 10:30AM with the Treasury Budget (-$140 billion) out at 2AM. The German-Irish debt spread has widened significantly to a new record level but that seems to be shaken off. Futures are ahead modestly as the market is shaking everything off in focusing on strength in selected retailers. For the day, look for it to be quite choppy with metals leading the way; when silver’s margin requirements were raised yesterday, it sold off in leading to a sell-off in other commodities as well and it fed on itself. The focus will likely be on the earnings plays, the casinos, components makers such as AKAM and LLNW, the metals/rare earths such as MCP, REE, and SLW, and the myriad of small-cap momentum stories from this morning and yesterday.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

URS- decent earnings

WX- decent earnings

BSFT- closed near a high after posting great earnings

APEI- closed near a high after posting great earnings

BNVI- approved clinical development plan for Menerba

RL- good earnings


Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

MBI- poor earnings

TSLA- poor earnings

AONE- bad earnings

JOBS- bad earnings

IGT- poor earnings

LOPE- poor earnings

MDMD- closed near a low after posting poor earnings

ENOC- closed near a low after posting poor earnings

TNL- closed near a low after posting poor earnings


GSS- closed near a low after posting poor earnings

DF- closed near a low after posting poor earnings

CAAS- closed near a low after posting poor earnings

WG- closed near a low after posting poor earnings

ADY- closed near a low

TIVO- closed near a low after the US Appeals Court announced it’d again consider the TIVO-Dish DVR case

SLW, EXK- closed near a low as silver reversed yesterday

BLK- closed near a low after announcing a share offering

FSLR- closed near a low

VHC- closed near a low

FEED- terrible earnings

SMT- terrible earnings

CAGC- poor earnings

CPB- poor earnings

Earnings:

WED NOV 10 BEFORE

CSC M MFB

RL

WED NOV 10 AFTER

AAP BRKS CSCO

HMIN ZAGG



Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
 
THURS. NOV. 11- Style Points Don't Count...But Know Your Style

Sorry for being New York-centric here in the start to this, but I’ll do my best to broaden out my main point. A few days ago, I was in midtown Manhattan after having taken my kids to the Big Apple Circus. We’d eaten before-hand and the kids were tired so after having awakened very early, we decided to go home (both kids fell asleep within five minutes of getting into the car). We were at Lincoln Center on the day before the New York marathon- a day in which the Long Island Railroad was running at about 10% capacity. There were two obvious ways to go. First, take the Queensboro Bridge (about 2 ½ miles away), but there was an accident on the upper level of the bridge with ‘extensive delays.’ Alternative #2 was to drive towards downtown and take the Midtown Tunnel (about 4 miles from where we were) but there were two accidents on the way there and an ‘extensive delay’ at the entrance of the tunnel. Well, my wife didn’t care if we took the Queensboro because the kids could sleep. My mother-in-law wanted to go toward the tunnel because she thought I could worm my way around the traffic. Both may well have been right. But I chose a different alternative- drive away from everything, take the Triboro, and circumvent things by winding up on the Cross Island and then the LIE. In English for non-New Yorkers, I drove several miles out of my way in the opposite direction first…envision a check mark and a diagonal line; I took the check mark route. By doing this, I was able to avoid the traffic mess but it was still a slight gamble because that route could have rapidly clogged up. I think I was right to do it as they eventually discussed delays on the radio of upwards of 1 ½ hours at the bridge and tunnel and I actually got home in 1 ½ hours but there is of course no definitive answer. This leads to my two points…one a singular and one a plural. First, I am definitely one of the most risk-averse day traders that could ever be. When I enter a trade, I know where I am wrong immediately and for the most part, when wrong, I am able to stick to those exits. With that in mind, when presented with facts, I go with what I see and make the best guess. If I know I am going to be stuck in traffic in route 1 and 2, I know there’s a 100% chance I’ll be stuck if I take those routes, but a much less chance if I take a route where’s no traffic with a great shot of getting home faster with the risk being that it’d 15 minutes more or so if I am wrong. So it is with trading. People ask me all the time why I trade the way I do using the methodology that I utilize. Why? Because I find it provides me with the best odds of making money consistently. And now the “we” point. There are different ways to get to the same place- garner a living at day trading. Different styles work for different people- at different times. The trick is to figure out exactly what works for you- while constantly tinkering- and giving everything you have- going “all in” to your choice. I know this whole piece sounds New Agey and obvious at that, but it’s not. At least 10 times a week, somebody will pitch an idea for a trade to me with logic that may work for an investment but if, say, LVS was downgraded yet is nearing unchanged on the day, I want to buy LVS for a two minute time horizon rather than worry about their revenues in Macau and how that may impact the business. If my goal is to make 1-2 cents in a trade on large size, I know to try to trade a stock with a narrow range rather than a stock like, say, Ford (F) yesterday which may be good for that style of trading some days but not when it’s moving 60-70 cents. So, please, pick what works for you and your personality but truly do your homework and thinking in understanding the risks (and rewards) of your particular choice.

Markets were actually relatively quiet overnight with Tokyo up 0.3%, Hong Kong ahead 0.8% with London and Frankfurt both trading within 0.1% of unchanged. Here’s the thing- everything else is really moving. The dollar is stronger against the euro, gold and silver are both up, but oil is down. Bonds are closed for Veteran’s Day. Futures are getting mauled after a warning by CSCO overnight. For the day, look for a fairly volatile low volume morning certainly on a stock-by-stock basis. There’s no guidance from bonds nor economic news so prices will be likely be contained in a narrow range but will be ragged until it slows mid-morning at which point everything likely gets very quiet. Focus on the networkers, the metals, the various earnings plays and share offerings, and relative strength plays.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

SOA- closed near a high after posting good earnings

TSLA- closed near a high after posting good earnings

PEGA- closed near a high after posting good earnings

SFUN- closed near a high after posting good earnings

RL- closed near a high after posting good earnings

ROA- closed near its high on the day of its IPO

RIMM- closed near a high amid rumors it will introduce a new device in competing against AAPL

BJ- closed near a high on takeover rumors

DNDN- positive report on Provenge

AERL- closed near a high

AAPL- closed near a high

AMZN- closed near a high

NFLX- closed near a high

BIDU- closed near a high

SLW, EXK- closed near their highs

BRKS- decent earnings

AAP- good earnings

GRRF- decent earnings

IR- being added to the S&P 500

KSS- decent earnings

PUDA- closed near a high

AFOP- closed near a high

CPC- closed near a high

SVN- closed near a high after posting earnings

TTM- closed near a high

GKNTD- closed near a high

HT, WFR- featured on “Mad Money” last night

VIA/B- decent earnings

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

RINO- closed near a low amid being mentioned negatively in a newsletter

KRO- closed near a low after an overallotment of a share offering was priced at 40- far below yesterday’s close

DF- closed on a low

AONE- closed on a low after posting poor earnings

SMT- closed on a low after posting poor earnings

CAGC- closed on a low after posting poor earnings

IDSA- closed on a low after posting poor earnings

GRNB- closed near a low after deferring TARP dividend and interest payments

CSCO- terrible earnings; JNPR, CAVM, ALTR, FFIV, and BRCM among others will likely move in sympathy

ASTI- share offering

SRDX- terrible earnings and share offering

HPJ- poor earnings

RST- poor earnings

KLIC- poor earnings

PRU- share offering

CLNE- share offering

ANW- terrible earnings

WPI- secondary offering of 10.5 million shares by selling stockholder

AKAM- competitor LVLT signed multi-year agreement with NFLX


Earnings:

THURS NOV 11 BEFORE

EJ SCR VIA/B

THURS NOV 11 AFTER

DIS GMCR MSCC

NVDA SPWRA YONG




Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
 
FRI. NOV. 12- Irish Eyes Are Not Smiling These Days

Imagine if after the market’s huge rally of the last 1 ½ years, Citicorp was trading around 2 while Bank of America (BAC) hovered just below 1. Not fathomable after the QE pumping? Such is the case in the Emerald Isle. My mother was just in Ireland and regaled me with descriptions of the beauty of the area, the niceness of the people, the geniality of restaurants…and the emptiness of many of the establishments of the merchants. As of yesterday, shares of Allied Irish Bank (AIB) were trading at 95 cents with Bank of Ireland (IRE) hovering at 2.20. In the interim, bond spreads between Irish debt and that of places like Germany have quietly widened to levels precariously higher than they were during the European debt crisis which took during the summer. The latest crisis seemed to coincide with a statement by Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen in mid-October in which he indicated that Ireland would need to increase its planned budget savings from 2011-14 which is fancy talk for budget cuts. Then, Germany proposed a sovereign debt restructuring schematic to take place after 2013, but Irish bond investors grew worried about pushing out problems. Later, the Irish government projected that it debt will actually be more than 100% of GDP in 2012! Thus, investors have already priced in debt downgrade ratings and it appears likely that Irish debt holders will face a restructuring of said debt. A lot of the losses will be absorbed by the real estate-loving AIB which may eventually be take non by the Irish government- a de facto nationalization of a bank that may never lend money again. With growth prospects worsening and the real estate market weakening as well, it appears to be a fairly glum situation for Ireland. I cannot begin to guess as to what will happen nor do I know if the debt woes of Ireland will be contained. But the story has been given very short shrift by the mainstream media and it is a situation that could have major implications for the euro much less the world’s stock markets over time.

Well, the focus is not on Ireland right now as there's a more imminent issue. Markets overnight were pummeled throughout Asia on some very obstinate wording from key Chinese politicians and members of their Central Bank indicating immediate-term changes coming to Chinese monetary policy. Taken in combination with the G-20 meeting in South Korea this weekend, it sent shivers throughout Asia with Tokyo down 1.4%, Hong Kong down 1.9%, and the Chinese stock market off more than 5%. In Europe, the movement is much more moderate with London and Frankfurt both down about 0.3%. Bonds are getting hit to the tune of about 5 basis points with the dollar weaker. But commodities are getting smacked with gold down 1% and oil 2%. Futures state-side are down as well. Look for more volatility than in recent times today with commodities prices and rumors of G-20 rumblings moving stock prices. The focus will likely be on the various biotechs in the news (such as HGSI), the earnings plays, the commodity plays, and any relative strength from recent small cap momentum plays (such as AUMN).

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

AREX- closed near a high after a successful common stock offering at 16.25

SLXP- closed near a high

MOS, CF- closed near a high

BIDU- closed near a high

NVDA- decent earnings

SPWRA- decent earnings

MSCC- decent earnings

FNSR- great earnings guidance

OINK- good earnings

AUMN- closed near a high

GOK- closed near a high

LNG- closed near a high after a subsidiary signed a deal with ENN Energy

BEXP- closed near a high

HGSI- closed near a high on vague takeover rumors

TTEK- closed near a high after issuing earnings

MMYT- closed near a high

NG, EGO, AUY, CTEL- featured on “Mad Money” last night

CPIX- good earnings

BSQR- decent earnings

A- decent earnings


Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

SRDX- closed near a low after issuing earnings

TORM- terrible earnings

DVOX- poor earnings

CELM- poor earnings

CMT- closed near a low after issuing earnings

MELA- closed near a low

WEN- poor earnings

HGSI- FDA posted review of Benlysta ahead of panel meeting


Earnings:

FRI NOV 12 BEFORE

A DHI JCP

STRI WEN




Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
 
MON. NOV. 15- Love That Lilliput

One of my favorite books out there is Gulliver’s Travels by Jonathan Swift. In the book, Gulliver loves to travel. How appropriate. He comes across two lands. The first is Lilliput. On this ill-fated voyage, Gulliver is washed up on shore somewhere after a shipwreck. Once he awakens, he finds he is now captive by a people who as a whole are about six inches high each. Eventually, he is set free and viewed as a giant in this land with requests to do things like subdue their equally vertically challenged neighbors (the Blefuscudians). Eventually after the Lillipuitians fault him for not fighting their enemy, he eventually escapes their punishment of attempting to blind him and sets sail on a new ship (“Adventure”…as opposed to the QE2 of course). As the story goes, the ship is blown off course by storms and is found by a farmer in the land of Brobdingnag. This farmer is about 70 feet tall. In this land, he is of course the smallest being and must adjust to this- particularly not easy to do after his last adventure. I mean, he’s too small to do things like use a knife and fork and has a special house/box built for him in which he is routinely carried around. Well, many traders tend to view themselves as guests in Lilliput. I hear calls of people making a small amount of money, discussing winning trades, and doing things like talking about share volume. Well, I have a lot of pride, but I don’t delude myself in the least- I am certainly at this point in my career a benevolent guest in the Day Trading version of Brobdingnag. I look up at TV and view traders who make in a day what I make in a year. I see and hear tales of people who have the ability to spend lavishly. I personally know of traders who traded multiples of the size I trade in a day. In the end, although I have thankfully done fairly well over time through nothing but the force of sheer will and discipline (and not in that order), I am reminded daily of how much more I have to go. Whenever I get the Lilliputian chip on my shoulder (particularly after a series of good days) and do things like deviate from my own trading rules, I tend to have a pretty poor day. So, as one plods through the wilds of the day trading environment, certainly speaking for me, it’s much easier to quietly reside in a land of giants in trying to maneuver among them than to view myself as something I am not. The humbleness keeps me from doing stupid things…plus it doesn’t hurt to remember that David, in fact, slew Goliath eventually…and that of course is my hope on a much smaller scale day after day.

The market snapshot this morning is relatively interesting particularly for a Monday morning in November. The Nikkei gained 1% in Tokyo but lost almost 1% in Hong Kong. European bourses are moderately higher by about 0.1% to 0.4% across the board. The dollar is sharply ahead against the yen and the euro. Gold is down slightly but oil is up almost 1%. Bonds are getting drubbed- largely attributed to some negative comments that former Fed Chairman Greenspan made over the weekend. The New York Fed Manufacturing Index came in sharply below expectations, but retail sales came in stronger than expected. Business Inventories (0.9%) are due out at 10AM. Merger mania is in full force this morning with a series of deals. Like I said, interesting. Look for a very choppy day with an eye on merger rumors, bonds, the dollar, and gold for any potential exacerbation of moves along with rumor flow about the Irish debt situation. The focus will be on the merger stocks and their sectors (BUCY, JOYG, CAT, ISLN, et al), the limited earnings flow, techs, the do-it-yourself home repair sector (LOW, HD), and the metals stocks (FCX, et al).

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

ST- closed near a high

MOT, F- featured on “Mad Money” on Friday night

CPA- closed near a high after posting decent earnings

MEI- received five year contract with GM

MEE- “WSJ” reports MT expressed an interest in acquiring MEE

ISLN- received $33.85/share cash deal from EMC

ASYS- good earnings

CSUN- decent earnings

BUCY- received $92/share cash takeover bid from CAT; JOYG may move with BUCY

MCCC- received $8.75/share buyout bid from private investor’s group led by CEO

TSTC- good earnings

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

ATRM- warned on earnings guidance

ASTM- filed mixed securities shelf

TORM- closed near a low after posting poor earnings

LVS- closed near a low

MOS- closed near a low

POT- BHP withdrew its takeover offer

PUDA- poor earnings

RINO- terrible earnings

MMYT- terrible earnings

Earnings:

MON NOV 15 BEFORE

CSUN DSX GYMB

LFT LOW MMYT


MOV NOV 15 AFTER

IOC JWN MCP

PWRD RINO URBN



Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
 
TUES. NOV. 16- Tackling Takeovers

On Monday mornings in bull markets like the one we’ve had for the last two years or so, there are oftentimes a number of deals announced. The mergers tend to take place more frequently on Monday than any other day of the week because companies and the entities providing the financing have time on the weekends to work on structuring the deals. As a day trader, I never know which deals which prove to be great and which ones won’t as I’m not an analyst in any one sector. There are a few key things to look at. First, is the deal cash or stock? This is important to me because a stock with a cash deal tends not to be as volatile as one with a stock component. Second, how much time is there until it closes? Usually, the lesser the time, the closer the price of the stock to the takeout price. The reason for this is the inflation/time value of money component in that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. By that, I mean that the cost of the “Wall Street Journal” is much higher today than it was, say, 50 years ago for the same newspaper. Thus today all else equal, a stock with a cash deal closing at 100 in a year would likely trade lower than a stock with a cash deal closing at 100 in three months. Third, I look for the sector. Utility stocks tend to trade in a less volatile manner than say technology stocks. Within these parameters, there are two distinct trades I like to do. The first one is the ‘buy thru takeout price.’ The hypothesis behind this one is that if a deal is priced at enough away from the prevailing market price before said deal was announced, the stock shouldn’t trade above the takeout price. For instance, yesterday, Isilon Systems (ISLN) received a $33.95/share cash takeover bid from EMC (EMC) which was about a 30% premium from Friday’s close. I did not know ISLN’s core business but I knew on a 30% sudden pop, it likely wouldn’t go higher. Thus, when it traded 33.95 refreshing bid around 8:09AM yesterday morning, I felt a few shorts may rush for cover in wondering if there was another bid coming. The stock rallied about 20 cents in three minutes. I am not looking to short the stock at 33.80 at 10AM if the high happens to be 33.90 with a 33.80 low because I have no idea how it should be priced yet this is when most traders tend to look at the situation for the first time without even knowing the parameters of the deal. The other type of play I look for is when the stock of an acquirer opens lower because of fear of things like dilution of earnings due to trying to seamlessly absorb a smaller entity. Well, yesterday, Caterpillar (CAT) announced a $7.6 billion takeover bid for BUCY (BUCY)- the biggest in CAT’s history. CAT initially opened lower on the NYSE, but once it got thru unchanged (81.04), the stock mushroomed higher over the next few minutes. It’s the same type of thinking- if investors/funds are worried about the prospects for an acquirer, the fear turns to greed as scared shorts panic if the acquirer’s stock got positive after opening down. All of this requires split second precision and some basic homework. One has to know the terms of the deal, the exits if wrong, the type of industry within which the deal is taking place, and the number of competitors in the sector of the stock being acquired as the fewer the better due to lack of available options. So, make the mini-merger mania work for you as a day trader- but on common sense terms rather than looking for mysterious patterns or trying to figure out the macro outlook for a sector rather than the immediate-term situation at hand.

Stocks were hit hard overnight following a rise in the seven-day repo rate in South Korea, concern in China regarding things like price controls due to inflationary pressures, and rumblings out of Ireland that they are weighing EU bank measures. Tokyo was down 0.3%, South Korea 0.8%, Hong Kong 1.4% and Shanghai over 4%. Markets are sharply lower in Europe as well with Frankfurt down 0.9% and London off 1.4%. The dollar is quiet, bonds are slightly higher, gold down ¾%, and oil down over 1%. Futures are down significantly as well as of this writing although off of their lows on WMT’s numbers. PPI (0.8% and core PPI (0.1%) are due out at 8:30AM, Industrial Production (0.3%) and Capacity Utilization (74.9%) at 9:15AM, and the NAHB Market Housing Index (15.0) at 10AM. The battle this morning is between the overseas pressures and falling commodities versus pretty good retail earnings this morning with the likes of WMT, DKS, and HD trading higher. This battle will likely continue all day with stocks very choppy. Focus on the aforementioned retailers and commodity plays, relative strength plays, selected small cap biotechs in the news (MELA for instance), and the fertilizer sector.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

YONG- good earnings

SKBI- good earnings

ZOOM- decent earnings

URBN- decent earnings

PWRD- decent earnings

BK- Warren Buffett raised his stake in the company

TSTC- closed near a high after issuing good earnings

HGSI- closed near a high

STS- closed near a high

HHC- closed near a high

BEZ, COH- featured on “Mad Money” last night

DKS- decent earnings


Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

MCP- poor earnings

JWN- poor earnings

EPB- share offering

PAA- share offering

LLNW- closed near a low and doing a share offering

PMI- share offering

AMZN- closed near a low

NFLX- closed near a low

RINO- closed near a low after disclosing terrible earnings

ONP- closed near a low

RIMM- closed near a low

TRIT- closed near a low after disclosing terrible earnings

WG- closed near a low

POT- closed near a low after BHP withdrew its takeover offer

MOS- closed near a low

MMYT- closed near a low after disclosing terrible earnings

THOR- closed near a low after HTWR debuted its own competing product

TORM- closed near a low

IDSA- closed near a low

LPH- bad earnings

JEC- poor earnings

MELA- FDA indicated that MELA’s skin device “may do more harm than good”


Earnings:

TUES NOV 16 BEFORE

ANF ARM DKS

HD JEC NM

SKS TJX WMT


TUES NOV 16 AFTER

SINA


Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
 
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