Epiphany Trading Daily Blog

Quote from erikrkolodny:

It's semantics, but the one point we'll have to agree to disagree on is the offering. Even if as you say mangement was guiding investors toward those numbers re the test, it should not have sold off 30% plus. But again, it's all philosophical because that is what happened (although the stock has only recently ticked back above 6). I know the test is not close to being approved (wasn't this the first study of an SDNA test which showed promising results?) but it just hammers home my point: the company saw an opportunity to raise capital and did it at a price they thought they could do it successfully.
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I still disagree with you on how the "news" of the Validation Study was received given the 11.5 million share offering.

The comparison with InterMune wasn't even close. These Companies are in two entirely different phases of their business plan. Again, I'm puzzled as to how you could ignore such an important distinction.

At the end of the day, the most important aspect is that the Company has nearly $100 million in cash to get Cologuard approved and to the market place. The FDA clinical trial will only be costing $15-$20 million. All of this is public information and can be found via presentations at various Wall Street investor conferences that are archived in the Investor Relations section of the Exact Sciences corporate website.


Quote from erikrkolodny:

Two GI's and two general practitioners.

I meant studies that are independent of EXAS media mentions. I can say anything I want and cite any study I want about day trading, but there are tons of other studies/facts out there. I was seeking something/anything on the specific topic that EXAS has not highlighted. I was hoping since you knew a lot more about it that you'd know where to guide me/anyone else interested.
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In my previous post I cited a 10,000 patient study done in Ontario, Canada in 2008. I believe that I was QUITE CLEAR on that and that the study has nothing to do with a media "reference" (as you claim) to Exact Sciences. Not sure why that fact went over your head. The Canadian study appears in the Annals of Internal Medicine. I'm sure that you can easily find it if you are not lazy.

http://www.annals.org/search?fulltext=colonoscopy&submit=yes&x=23&y=11

As for your GI doc friends...

Are you really surprised that someone that does Colos for a living is going to be skeptical (or non-supportive) of an alternative screening test that provides extremely high sensitivity for detecting colorectal cancer, not too mention pre-cancers?

Interestingly enough, Exact's Cologuard will actually lead to more Colos being done, because more of the population will finally get screened. This is a significant point that much of the medical profession misses.

By the way, the Validation Study for Exact's stool DNA test was not conducted "in-house". It was conducted externally by the Mayo Lab.

I would also suggest that you do some due-diligence on the likes of CEO Kevin Conroy and what he was able to achieve at his previous company, Third Wave Technologies. Conroy has quite the resume and this isn't his first time developing a cancer screening test and getting it to the market place.

:)
 
I noted ITMN was not EXAS. I noted the circumstances were different. My point stands, however re the share offering; like I said we’ll have to agree to disagree as to whether pricing a share offering 30% under where the stock was three days previous is a good or bad thing.

I am well aware the Canadian study was an independent study. All I asked for (kindly- for my own education as well as for the education of others) was for other independent studies out there if there were any as you’d probably be able to procure them easier than I would as you theoretically know more about it than I since you seem to know more about EXAS than I do; there is no need nor reason to talk down to me.


Quote from Landis82:

I still disagree with you on how the "news" of the Validation Study was received given the 11.5 million share offering.

The comparison with InterMune wasn't even close. These Companies are in two entirely different phases of their business plan. Again, I'm puzzled as to how you could ignore such an important distinction.

At the end of the day, the most important aspect is that the Company has nearly $100 million in cash to get Cologuard approved and to the market place. The FDA clinical trial will only be costing $15-$20 million. All of this is public information and can be found via presentations at various Wall Street investor conferences that are archived in the Investor Relations section of the Exact Sciences corporate website.




In my previous post I cited a 10,000 patient study done in Ontario, Canada in 2008. I believe that I was QUITE CLEAR on that and that the study has nothing to do with a media "reference" (as you claim) to Exact Sciences. Not sure why that fact went over your head. The Canadian study appears in the Annals of Internal Medicine. I'm sure that you can easily find it if you are not lazy.

http://www.annals.org/search?fulltext=colonoscopy&submit=yes&x=23&y=11

As for your GI doc friends...

Are you really surprised that someone that does Colos for a living is going to be skeptical (or non-supportive) of an alternative screening test that provides extremely high sensitivity for detecting colorectal cancer, not too mention pre-cancers?

Interestingly enough, Exact's Cologuard will actually lead to more Colos being done, because more of the population will finally get screened. This is a significant point that much of the medical profession misses.

By the way, the Validation Study for Exact's stool DNA test was not conducted "in-house". It was conducted externally by the Mayo Lab.

I would also suggest that you do some due-diligence on the likes of CEO Kevin Conroy and what he was able to achieve at his previous company, Third Wave Technologies. Conroy has quite the resume and this isn't his first time developing a cancer screening test and getting it to the market place.

:)
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THURS. DEC. 23- The Eve Of Christmas Eve
The oldest philosophical question in the history of the world is “Why?” And of course the answer to that question as any student of philosophy knows is “Why Not?” The 2nd oldest is “What’s Up?” And the answer can range from “Not much” to what I often say which is “Anything and everything,” because that can spur actual conversation! Along the same vein, I am often asked two questions about today. The first one is “Why is the stock market opened today?” I always say “Why Not.” But there actually is an answer. With the exception of stretches like the period following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks when lower Manhattan was burning, the stock market does not close for more than four days in a row due to a potential for build-up of orders particularly if a major news event occurs. Movements can often become even more exaggerated on Mondays if an event occurs on a Friday or over the weekend. There is time to digest the news but if it is major and the implications for the news become clear, the volatility and deltas tend to increase. The second question is “What can I expect today?” That goes back to “Anything and everything.” There are days in which there is some movement in the morning and it dries up much like the type of day we had on Tuesday in which the S&P 500 traded in a range of around 2 ½ points for several hours. However, movements can also become exaggerated particularly in the presence of news on days before holidays. A good example occurred on Thanksgiving night in 2000 when the results of the presidential election were finally released. The day after Thanksgiving the next day, the markets had gigantic net moves. So, just be grateful that we get to have a three day weekend and hopefully use today as a springboard for a little extra cash for all those presents that have been purchased these last few weeks.

Markets in Asia were mixed overnight with Hong Kong down 0.6% and Sydney ahead 0.4%. In Europe, prices are every bit as mixed with London up 0.2%, Paris ahead 0.1%, but Paris down 0.4%. Oil and gold are down a tinge. The dollar is down slightly against the yen but up slightly against the euro. Futures are hovering near unchanged. Personal income (0.2%), personal spending (0.5%, PCE prices- core (0.1%), Durable orders (-1.0%), durable orders ex transports (1%), and initial claims (424K) are due out at 8:30AM with Michigan sentiment (75.0) out at 9:55AM, new home sales (303K) at 10AM, and “Wait ‘Til The Sun Shines Nellie” just after 2PM. All of this economic data will obviously move prices today but not much. It is as quiet as can be right now and will likely remain so overall today. Volume will likely be light with almost all activity done in the first 1 ½ hours of the day and maybe a little at the tail end. Whatever focus there is will be on the limited earnings flow, the merger stocks such as VRGY, and small cap biotechs which have moved in recent days

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

ITMN- closed near a high

OXM- closed near a high after announcing acquisition of Lilly Pulitzer

BBBY- good earnings

HDY- closed near a high

INHX- closed near a high

CNET- closed near a high

REDF- closed near a high

ANW- closed near a high after announcing it will commence operations in Cape Verde

BXS, PACW- closed near a high in a strong regional bank sector

VRGY- received $15/share in cash from Advantest

SNIC- received $14.17/ share bid from ROVI in which SNIC holders can received $14/share in cash or.2489 shares of ROVI in 55% and 45% shares

JAS- received takeover bid for $61/share in cash from Leonard Green & Partners, LP

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

NKE- closed near a low after posting bad earnings

LNN- closed near a low after posting bad earnings

CPY- closed near a low in a continuation move after posting poor earnings on Tuesday morning

GILD- terminated phase III clinical trial of Ambrisentan in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

MU- poor earnings

CROX- CFO resigned to pursue another opportunity at another company

AIB- Ireland recapitalized the bank by 3.7 billion euros to meet the regulator’s year-end capital requirements in effectively nationalizing the bank

Earnings:

None today

Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
 
Quote from erikrkolodny:

All I asked for (kindly- for my own education as well as for the education of others) was for other independent studies out there if there were any as you’d probably be able to procure them easier than I would as you theoretically know more about it than I since you seem to know more about EXAS than I do; there is no need nor reason to talk down to me.
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And as I have posted on several occasions, you need to do some due-diligence if you are genuinely interested in a Company who is looking at a multi-billion dollar market place opportunity in medical diagnostics for the #2 killer of Americans over the age of 50.

Each year, nearly 50,000 Americans die of colorectal cancer.
You have to ask yourself why that is, given that this type of cancer is relatively slow moving.

http://www.preventcancer.org/colorectal2c.aspx?id=1054

EXAS has exclusive patents on the extraction of DNA from stool. They also have patents on their DNA marker assay. They also have exclusive rights to a quantitative chemistry platform that detects specific nucleic acid sequences, called Invader which was developed by the current management team at their previous company, Third Wave Technologies.

http://www.invaderchemistry.com/

In other words, barriers to entry in this market are extremely high.EXAS has no realistic competition.

Moreover, there will be opportunities to diagnose other cancers from lower GI tract organs such as the pancreas, via stool DNA. Current management is proven, given that they developed an HPV screening test at their previous company, which then was approved by the FDA and bought out by Hologic.

Again, if you sit down and spend five minutes looking at the numbers . . . they are downright mind-boggling. A company that had a parallel path to EXAS was CYTC - - - which was bought out by Hologic for over $6 BILLION dollars a few years ago and at a rather hefty 7.2 times sales.

Given your day-trading time frame, I'm sure that EXAS is simply just another symbol pn your screen and (at times) "mo-mo" play to you. As you are just now understanding, it is much much more than that.

There are times to be a Trader, but this isn't one of them my friend.
EXAS is an INVESTMENT.

That having been said, Good Luck to All who do their homework, have a plan, and trade their plan!

:cool:
 
Quite honestly, in the absolute immediate-term, I am much more interested in the science than the actual stock which is why I asked for more information. I appreciate the extra links and wish you happy holidays (and hope- genuinely- EXAS works out for you monetarily and that the company's products save lives in time).

Quote from Landis82:

And as I have posted on several occasions, you need to do some due-diligence if you are genuinely interested in a Company who is looking at a multi-billion dollar market place opportunity in medical diagnostics for the #2 killer of Americans over the age of 50.

Each year, nearly 50,000 Americans die of colorectal cancer.
You have to ask yourself why that is, given that this type of cancer is relatively slow moving.

http://www.preventcancer.org/colorectal2c.aspx?id=1054

EXAS has exclusive patents on the extraction of DNA from stool. They also have patents on their DNA marker assay. They also have exclusive rights to a quantitative chemistry platform that detects specific nucleic acid sequences, called Invader which was developed by the current management team at their previous company, Third Wave Technologies.

http://www.invaderchemistry.com/

In other words, barriers to entry in this market are extremely high.EXAS has no realistic competition.

Moreover, there will be opportunities to diagnose other cancers from lower GI tract organs such as the pancreas, via stool DNA. Current management is proven, given that they developed an HPV screening test at their previous company, which then was approved by the FDA and bought out by Hologic.

Again, if you sit down and spend five minutes looking at the numbers . . . they are downright mind-boggling. A company that had a parallel path to EXAS was CYTC - - - which was bought out by Hologic for over $6 BILLION dollars a few years ago and at a rather hefty 7.2 times sales.

Given your day-trading time frame, I'm sure that EXAS is simply just another symbol pn your screen and (at times) "mo-mo" play to you. As you are just now understanding, it is much much more than that.

There are times to be a Trader, but this isn't one of them my friend.
EXAS is an INVESTMENT.

That having been said, Good Luck to All who do their homework, have a plan, and trade their plan!

:cool:
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MON. DEC. 27- The Week Before New Year's

OK…so now we’ve here after a nice three day weekend and into New Year’s Eve Week. So now what? Well, typically the week before New Year’s actually has a different ‘feel’ than does the week before Christmas. There are several main differences. First, volume until the last day of the year itself is typically even lower than it is during Christmas Week. This is because this week is the most common vacation week of the year as kids are off from school and people are quite frankly tired from the stresses of the year. Second, there is a push and pull among the people left. Many fund managers who have a comfortable lead over the averages for the year leave but many of the ones behind do remain. Furthermore most offices with people out are represented by the 2nd tier group/skeletal crews as after all there are five business days here so there are trades to be made. Third, moves in individual stocks can become rapidly exacerbated; we got a whiff of that on Friday when XOMA moved from 5.90 to 6.90 in less than 10 minutes after a recurring seller left. Typically many microcaps can really really go. Finally, there tends to be a lot more movement overall. The ‘good/happy’ feel with all the Christmas music on the radio is over and those of us who are here are really thinking about trading rather than the kids opening presents. So, as the week goes on in particular after today’s snow day, there are going to be some pockets of major inactivity but overall expect a busier week than last week with many more opportunities.

Markets overnight were generally higher in Asia with Tokyo up ¾% but lower through Europe as both Frankfurt and Paris are trading down over 1%. Oil is slightly weaker, gold slightly stronger, and the dollar flat with bonds a tinge weaker as well. The two big topics today are the Chinese interest rate hike over the weekend with the blizzard in the Northeast being the other major topic of conversation. Trading desks will be sparse with many people not in. Expect a bit of a downdraft early on followed by consolidation the rest of the day on anemic volume. The focus- what focus there is- will likely be on small cap biotech momentum play such as XOMA, financials, and relative strength plays.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

XOMA- closed near a high on continued momentum from a mention in a newsletter on Wednesday

RPRX- closed near a high after submitting new data on a testosterone replacement drug

SBAY- closed near a high after releasing earnings

CF- closed near a high

FCX- closed near a high

AGU, POT- closed near a high

OPHC- closed near a high

NOA- closed near a high

VRML- closed near a high

APWR- announced EPC contract with Inner Mongolia Huolinhe Coal Trade Group

OPEN- mentioned on “Mad Money” on Friday

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

MSB- closed near a low

TSLA- closed near a low after it was started as a ‘sell’ at Capstone

ALIM, PSDV- FDA issued negative complete response letter to ALIM regarding its application for Iluvien

HRB- HSBC ended refund anticipation loan agreement with HRB

NFLX- mentioned negatively in “WSJ” over the weekend


Earnings:

MON DEC 27 BEFORE

CALM


Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
 
TUES. DEC. 28- Taking Time To Learn

I once was a relatively young kid a long long time ago. And although I was a young kid, I still had the same zest for trying to "do it all" that I have now. Much of it- both work and play- occurred relatively late at night. And let me tell you something you most assuredly already know- nothing good happens when one has way too much time on their hands particularly late at night! Well, I found over the years that this is the case in the trading room as well. I came to realize that on days when there was precious little to do trading-wise and I had nothing to keep me busy, I'd do things like banter a great deal and miss the rare opportunity. Worse yet, I'd often try to create something out of nothing and wind up with less than zero monetarily. Thus, I started using the slower stretches to keep busy mentally and physically. I take longer and more frequent walks and do things like write blogs about keeping one's mind active while staying busy yet near should an opportunity arise. It's why oftentimes I won't do a trade in the middle of the day but get a lot of work and research done much less using the time to study past trades. So, yeah, let's talk a little about the Jets and Giants...but not enough to ruin a trading day or miss out on a shot to truly improve oneself mentally by utilizing the time to study trading as well as world politics, economics, news, and science. Extra education- particularly when having a little extra time- is never a bad thing.

Markets were generally lower in Asia overnight with Tokyo down 0.6%, Hong Kong 0.9%, and Shanghai 1.7% (in closing below its 200 day moving average). The tone was a bit better in Europe with Frankfurt up 0.1% and Paris 0.4%. The external markets are moving this morning though with the dollar down a yen and a euro, gold is up 1%, and oil up ½%. Futures are higher. Case-Shiller (0.1%) is due out at 9AM and Consumer Confidence (56.1) at 10AM. Look for a continual drift upward in prices today off-hand as many of the big caps show strength in the early going and the shake-off of the Chinese problems yesterday was notable in the immediate-term from a technical basis. The focus will likely be on the microcaps, the rare earths, the momentum plays (AIG for instance), and A-B-A2s to the upside in the big caps.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

DARA- closed near a high following a report of positive cancer pain drug results in Medicalnewser.com

AVL, REE, MCP- closed near a high in a strong rare earths sector

AIG- closed near a high after receiving a $3 billion credit facility

GU- closed near a high after China exempted pure biodiesel fuel from consumption tax


GS- closed near a high

YOKU, DANG- closed near a high

VRML- closed near a high

STSA- closed near a high

STU- closed near a high after agreeing to settle on shareholder class lawsuits over the Discover deal

GM- initiated with a “buy” rating at numerous brokerage houses

MNKD- FDA told company it’ll need for more weeks to complete its review of the new drug application of Afrezza

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

TSLA- closed near a low as its IPO lock-up expired

XOMA- closed near a low in reversing recent gains

LAS- closed near a low amid updates on new Beijing traffic control measures

Earnings:

None today

Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
 
WED. DEC. 29- The Rare Earth Play

Yesterday, I spoke of the importance of educating oneself perpetually but particularly taking an opportunity to do so when it is a bit slower. During our morning conference call, I made reference to the fact that I took quite some time to learn about the rare earth sector in the last couple of days. I am thrilled to no end that I did because the basis of my trading income yesterday came from trading ‘rare earth’ stocks. In any case, I’ve made reference in this space to the ‘rare earth’ sector many times, but needed a primer for myself as to exactly what the ‘rare earths’ are as I for one wanted to know more about it which is why I took the time to learn a lot more in detail. The most common rare earth metals are yttrium, neodymium, cerium, and lanthanum. As it turns out, many of these metals are actually more common in the Earth’s crust than silver or lead! So why exactly are they referred to as the “rare earth” metals? Getting all scientific, the answer stems from the fact that these metals come from uncommon oxide-type minerals (aka ‘earths’) from which they were originally extracted. However, the discovered minable concentrations to-date tend to be far rarer than most other ores found in the Earth’s continental crust. Rare earth materials are used in such things such as ceramics, glasses, nuclear applications, optical fibers, and lasers. About 2/3 of the rare earth’s end uses are found in automotive catalytic converters, petroleum refining catalysts, and as metallurgical additives and alloys used in such things as smartphones. As it turns out, the Mountain Pass mine in the Mojave Desert is a place where rare earth metals have been mine yet the U.S. amazingly has been but a bit player in the mining of any rare earth metals for over 25 years! The biggest producer is China which accounts for more than 90% of world supplies. Well, the whole sector has exhibited breathtaking gains in recent months with stocks like Molycorp (MCP) and Rare Element Resources (REE) quadrupling in the last few months. Demand is certainly a factor as there has been an increased desire for usage of these minerals along of course with a rise in the value of other metals as well. But the main factor has been China. As they are the main producer, they have a lot of control and officially cut export quotas yesterday by 11% in the 1st round of permits for 2011 which can extend a global shortage of the rare earth minerals. The Chinese government slashed export quotas by a staggering 72% in the second half of this year. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce noted also that this latest cut may not reflect what will happen all year and that it’d raise the export taxes for many rare earth elements as well. The other thing that moves many of these stocks is announcements of deals as well as timetables for the manufacture of said metals. MCP is the only rare earth oxide producer in the Western Hemisphere. For perspective, their revenues last quarter were $8.4 million with a $4 billion market cap. They have deals in place with the likes of Hitachi Metals to jointly manufacture rare earth alloys in the U.S….but the actual manufacturing…well who knows? On Monday, it was reported that MCP had begun mining for rare earths metals at Mountain Pass which accelerated the upward move. Then yesterday a report came out contradicting that faulty news; the stock fell almost 15% from its intra-day high! So, like so many other trading vehicles, the rare earths will remain in play for some time to come and can be great for day traders…particularly if one has a degree of understanding- not to an expert level but just a degree of understanding- as to what is moving the stocks.

Markets in Asia were strong overnight with Tokyo up 0.5% and Hong Kong up an even stronger 1.5%. Markets are also generally ahead in Europe with Frankfurt up 0.5%. Gold is flat, oil slightly lower, dollar slightly weaker, and bonds up a touch. Crude Inventories are due out at 10:30AM. All is generally quiet with no major news nor earnings overnight. Thus, the slight drift upward in stock prices on low volume is likely to continue today although volumes and movements may be a bit higher than those of the previous couple of days as people are able to get back to work and the end of the year approaches. The focus will like be on the rare earths, stocks in potential merger play (e.g. BJ), and A-B-A2’s on small caps.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

SBAY- closed near a high after launching an online 3D mall

VVTV- closed near a high after it received a new ‘Buy’ rating from Piper Jaffray

NFLX- closed near a high amid reports it is talking about advertising overseas according to “Adweek”

AEN- closed near a high

AG- closed near a high

BRNC- closed near a high

SEED- closed near a high as China reportedly mulled proposed legislation on management of genetically-modified food

IM- mentioned on “Fast Money” last night

BJ- “NY Post” article reports that the stock is still in play to be bought out

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

FSLR- closed near a low

MSB- closed near a low

RLD- closed near a low

XOMA- closed near a low

SODA- closed near a low

MCP- closed near a low


Earnings:

None today

Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
 
THURS. DEC. 30 - Man Vs Machine

Over and above the classics like “All In The Family” and “Cheers,” my favorite television show of all-time is “Jeopardy.” I cannot speak to the reality TV craze as I (fortunately or unfortunately depending on how you look at it) tend not to watch much television these days, but I do love ‘intelligent’ programs and there’s no game show more challenging than “Jeopardy.” On February 14-16, the show is going to have special episodes featuring two of the game’s most notable champions (Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter) playing against “Watson.” “Watson” is a computer program developed by the artificial intelligence folks over at IBM. This is similar to the “Garry Kasparov versus IBM chess computer” in 1997, but “Jeopardy” is a wildly unique challenge for IBM’s computers due to the intricacies of many of the clues which involves things like puns and riddles. It will be quite interesting to see how it turns out. More interesting (and relevant) for day traders is the impact the storm had on stock trading on Monday. I wrote a blog post on February 10 about a history of snow days at the NYSE:
http://epiphanytrading.blogspot.com/search?q=Snow+Day+(But+Not+For+Us)+
However, this most recent storm was different. It occurred on the Sunday/Monday morning of a holiday weekend, was the biggest December snow (in Central Park) in 62 years, and the blowing and drifting was incredible. Yet, the exchanges did not close. Despite the fact that it was a logistical nightmare to get to work, the thinking was that it’d be embarrassing if a tech-based exchange such as NASDAQ could operate yet the NYSE could not open. That said, with many NYSE-floor brokers unable to get into their offices due to the suspension of train service much less subway service, volume for the NYSE (much less all of the exchanges) was the lowest for a full-day session (by a large margin) this year. It makes one wonder whether the exchanges would have remained closed if it weren’t for all of the on-line trading (and ECN’s) much less the fact one renegade exchange (say EDGX) could have opened in making the ‘big boys’ look bad or at least made noise about wanting to open (which would have had the same effect). And that leads to my point. Ostensibly, the only true traders and brokers who were working on Monday were those who had access to electronic means (whether in the NYC metro area or elsewhere). This would not have been the case a generation ago. Furthermore, the attempt to blend humans and technology on Monday led to some consternation as it still takes humans to power the machines- yes- that is true. I mean, how could someone execute orders with a floor broker if the floor broker couldn’t get into the office? Yet, in order to render orders to the technological means the floor brokers use, they people had to be there. The ultimate paradox. It’s not for me to say whether the markets should have opened on Monday- particularly after a three-day weekend. But what occurred on Monday did make one thing crystal clear- machines are pivotal for a modern Wall Street. Yet without people around to operate said machines much less benefit from said technology, it leads to a very dull lowly-populated low-volume trading session- but one that was able to take place whereas 30 years ago that may not have been the case.


Markets were mixed overnight throughout the world. Tokyo fell 1.1% but Hong Kong was up 0.1%. London is flat yet Frankfurt is down 1%. Metals, currencies, oil, and bonds are relatively stable with the most interesting note being that silver is challenging the $31 barrier. Jobless claims data came in much better than expected (388K vs 416K expected), PMI is due out at 9:45AM (61.5%) and Pending Home Sales (-3.0%) are due out at 10AM. Futures are fractionally lower. The tone will likely remain muted with a bit more volume and movement in relative terms as we approach year-end. The focus will likely be almost solely on the microcaps that have been moving from the Chinese plays to the rare earths with an eye on fertilizers as well.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

URZ- closed near a high after completing a $20 million financing

XING- closed near a high

PULS- closed near a high after receiving interest of a prospective merger by Bel Fuse

SHZ, MCP, REE- closed near their highs

POT, MOS, MON, AGU- closed near their highs

WLT- closed near a high

CHGS- closed near a high

TWER- closed near a high

GCFB- closed near a high after getting new financing and investment from a new ownership group

QXM- closed near a high

ENDP- received FDA approval for Fortesta

MBI- closed near a high

BJ- closed near a high amid takeover speculation

VTG- announced the commencement of operations for the Platinum Explorer

APC- rumored buyout by BHP according to UK’s “Daily Mail”


Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

AIG- closed near a low

DANG, YOKU- closed near lows

NFLX- closed near a low

CPWM- closed near a low




Earnings:

None today

Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
 
FRI. DEC. 31- New Year's Eve- And The Markets Are Open

There are three notable New Year's Eve trading sessions that I can recall. In one year, I had a very large position in a stock named Omnipoint (50,000 shares) which I gradually sold off over the course of the day to take a capital loss to offset some other gains I had. It was one of the stupidest things I ever did, but that's a story for another time. On another New Year's session, AOL was trading around 142 at 3:55PM. It was to be added to the S&P 500 at the close of business. I placed an order to short the stock at 147. I got filled...on the short side...at 160! The third notable session was December 31, 1999. It was a half-day trading session ahead of the Y2K debacle that never materialized (thankfully). All three parables are important to note when wondering aloud as I did as to why in the world the NYSE is open at all today (with a full day due on Monday as well meaning we traders don't get a day off for the holiday this go-round). It turns out the answer is in Rule 51 of the NYSE by-laws:

“The Board has determined that the Exchange will not be open for business on New Year's Day, Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, Washington's Birthday, Good Friday, Memorial Day, Independence Day, Labor Day, Thanksgiving Day and Christmas Day. Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, Washington's Birthday and Memorial Day will be celebrated on the third Monday in January, the third Monday in February and the last Monday in May, respectively. The Exchange Board has also determined that, when any holiday observed by the Exchange falls on a Saturday, the Exchange will not be open for business on the preceding Friday and when any holiday observed by the Exchange falls on a Sunday, the Exchange will not be open for business on the succeeding Monday, unless unusual business conditions exist, such as the ending of a monthly or the yearly accounting period.”

As it turns out, today is the end of an accounting period. Well, many traders and institutions apparently need the extra time to smooth out positions. Whether that logic is true, it is the position of the exchanges. It clearly is worth showing up- particularly on a Friday when few people are around as moves in things like the Omnipoints and AOL's of yesteryear can become quite exaggerated. Also, the exchanges stay open for the full day for those accounting reasons cited in the rules, i.e. giving everyone as much time as possible to do whatever it is they need to do. So while it'd have been nice to have a full (or at least a half-day off), definitely view today as the opportunity it has so often been in the past...and have fun tonight!

Markets overnight were quiet in Asia with Tokyo closed and Hong Kong up 0.2%. In Europe, prices are generally lower with London and Paris both off about 0.75% but Frankfurt closed. The dollar is notably weaker with it approaching six week lows against the yen and down a full euro. Gold is up $7/ounce. State-side, it remains startlingly quiet with futures down a touch. There’s no economic data today nor any major news/earnings. It’ll likely remain fairly quiet today but there’s always the possibility of a late afternoon move with conditions so illiquid. The bias should remain flat to slightly weaker due to the downdraft in Europe. The focus will mainly be on the microcaps once again but as the afternoon progresses, certainly keep an eye on any relative strength/weakness plays into the end of the year should there be any market movement whatsoever.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

DARA- closed on a high

MCP, REE- closed near a high

MBI- closed near a high after JPM and Barclays withdrew from a lawsuit over MBI’s decision to split its insurance unit in two

PUDA- closed near a high after it completed acquisition of four coal mines under phase II of the Pinglu Project

VHC- closed near a high

IMMR- closed near a high

IMAX- “Daily Mail” reports SNE may bid north of 40 for IMAX

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

CHGS- near island reversal in closing near a low

SHZ- reversed in closing near a low



Earnings:

None today

Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
 
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