Epiphany Trading Daily Blog

WED. JUL. 14- Party in Santiago

On February 27, the nation of Chile suffered one of the worst disasters in modern history with an 8.8 magnitude earthquake slamming the nation. The only good news to take from this is that the earthquake’s epicenter was about 200 miles southwest of Chile’s capital (Santiago). Few people realized that the Santiago airport resumed operating on the Monday after the Saturday quake and the Santiago stock market reopened that day without so much as a delay. Even more amazing to most people is the fact that as the world focuses on the myriad of problems in Europe, the Santiago stock market actually closed at a record high on Tuesday! Not a crash recovery high…an all-time high. Chile introduced dramatic free market reforms ironically enough during the Pinochet days of the 1970’s. The first democratic government (run by Patricio Aylwin) took over from the military in 1990 and continued to develop and implement the economic reforms along with all governments since then. Furthermore, unlike Greece or Spain, Chile has stuck to its reforms and made every effort to avoid debt. For instance, President Bachelet came under much pressure after being elected in 2006 to spend Chile’s windfall monies from sky-high copper prices. Thus, when the worldwide crisis came in 2008, the Chilean government was able to implement one of the world’s largest stimulus programs. While it is true that copper is as important to Chile’s economy as oil is to many other economies, it is also a truism that Chile held its own when copper prices came in whereas economies like Venezuela encountered many problems when oil prices cracked. Without going into the ins and outs of the Chilean economy, it is important for all traders to note that there are spots of success in the world which have not been crippled by debt. It is true that most eyes tend to be focused onto the euro and the streets of Athens and Madrid. But the truth of the matters is that these nations do not make up the whole worldwide picture when in fact countries like Chile are in South America rather than Europe. So, while there does not seem to be an immediate-term day trade here, one should be aware of the whole worldwide picture rather than just the problems of Europe and nations like North Korea when watching things that can affect the domestic American stock market such as commodity prices and/or the tug of the influence of a world basket of stocks…which of course has to include some Chilean equities.

Markets in Asia were higher overnight with Tokyo up a robust 2.7% and Hong Kong ahead 0.6%. In Europe, the trend has shifted with Frankfurt off 0.2% and London declining by 0.6%. Oil is down ½%, gold declining 0.3%, and the dollar is slightly weaker across the board. Futures are mixed with the S&P’s down slightly but the NASDAQ up a bit based on INTC’s good earnings. It’s a bit of a warning sign that the broader tape is not rallying with the techs, but we’ve had a huge six-day rally. For today, look for a very choppy day with an attempt to rally early. The veracity of that short covering attempt will set the tone for the balance of the day with some light profit taking likely. Focus on the earnings plays and their derivatives (i.e. INTC and the other semis for instance), the drillers, and relative weakness plays in particular early in the session.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

INTC- great earnings

EXPD- great earnings guidance

GS- closed near a high

AMZN- closed near a high

AIG- closed near a high after announcing investor Bruce Berkowitz built his stake in the company

ADS- closed near a high

LTBR- closed near a high

OREX- closed near a high

OREX- closed near a high

CTFO- closed near a high

EBS- closed near a high and announced HHS contract

BRK/B, JBL, NVDA- mentioned on “Mad Money” last night

ADTN- decent earnings

ASML- decent earnings

SNDK- signed joint venture agreement with Toshiba

ASYS- preannounced positive 3rd quarter earnings guidance



Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

YUM- poor earnings

NLY- share offering

WTNY- announced higher than expected loan-loss provision for 2nd quarter

FAST- closed near a low after warning on earnings

MOS- closed near a low

CERN- closed near a low after announcing earnings guidance

RIG- closed near a low

GTIV, LHCG- announced SEC is probing Medicare payments

Earnings:

WED JUL 14 BEFORE

JTX

WED JUL 14 AFTER

LSTR MAR

Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
 
THURS. JUL. 15- Bonds vs Stocks

Over the years, at varying times, there are different correlations between bonds and equities. Most of the time, lower interest rates mean good things for stocks. There is no desire for runaway inflation (ala the 1970’s). However, there are other times such as the immediate-term era we are in the midst of in which the correlation does not follow normal circumstances. There are two main reasons. First, what if inflation is not a worry but rather deflationary pressures are upon us? With job growth anemic and demand for most products down, many companies have been selling their wares at discounted prices. It is plausible that the bond market could be telling us that these pressures are only intensifying particularly with the recent sell-off in the precious metals. But my point for day traders is the 2nd reason: fear of risk. For the past several sessions, there has been an almost perfect inverse correlation between the direction of bond and equity prices (with yesterday the first time the correlation broke definitively in awhile). Basically, as people sell stocks, they’ve been buying bonds and vice versa. Ergo, a key to tracking stock prices as we enter earnings season will be to track bonds to see if entities sell bonds to put money back into riskier asset classes such as equities. Thus keep your eye on the 10-year much less 30-year bond yields as they have tended to lead the stock market over the last few weeks for a clue of any major intra-day move to come.

Markets in Asia were weak overall with Tokyo off 1.1% and Hong Kong 1.5% after some negative economic news out of China. In Europe, prices are definitively mixed with London down 0.3% and Frankfurt up 0.1%. Gold and oil are both modestly higher with the dollar a bit weaker. Bonds are also quiet. Futures are generally higher. This morning, JPM is notably holding up well with AAPL negative albeit off of its lows, GS up on rumors of imminent settlement with the SEC, and AMZN well lower. A mixed bag. But gotta go with the odds and trend as the winning streak looks set to continue. Look for a modest upside session pending anything coming out of JPM’s conference call. Focus on all the stocks just noted, the financials, the other big cap techs, the small caps in the news such as VRNM, and the myriad of earnings plays.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

TSLA- closed near a high

MON- closed near a high

ADTN- closed near a high after posting good earnings

DCTH- closed near a high

FUQI- closed near a high

ARNA- “New England Journal of Medicine” published results of two-year BLOOM trial showing Lorcaserin caused significant weight loss in working much better than the placebo

IGTE- closed near a high after announcing good earnings

SMT- coming public in IPO of 38 million shares at 17

CPBY- decent revenue guidance

NTY- acquired by Carlisle Group for 55 in cash

NYM- acquired by Prosight Insurance for 25.75 in cash

GS- rumored to be in talks to settle with SEC

FCS- decent earnings

VRNM- announced an agreement to sell its cellulosic biofuels business for almost $100 million

GWW- decent earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

LSTR- lukewarm earnings

OPNT- earnings warning

WTNY- closed near a low after warning of large write-offs

BMTI- closed near a low after announcing a share offering (which will take place at 8.50/share)

AAPL- to discuss iPhone 4 issues in conference call tomorrow morning

AMZN- downgraded by Bank of America to neutral’ from ‘buy’


Earnings:

THURS JUL 15 BEFORE

FCS GWW JPM

NVS NXY

PPG TCB

THURS JUL 15 AFTER

AMD CBST GOOG

JBHT PBCT PLCM

Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
 
FRI. JUL. 16- "Wait? Goldman's Up?!"

Several people noted orally and in writing yesterday (at least within earshot and eyeshot of me) that they didn’t understand why Goldman Sachs (GS) was rallying if a financial reform bill was on the verge of passing much less a settlement of several issues with the SEC. Rather than going into the minutia of the financial reform package or the discourse of what has lead to its present state as those answers can be ascertained by a Google search, let’s focus on the exact question at hand- why didn’t GS sell off yesterday? There are three main reasons. First, no matter a trader’s style, he/she must do at least a little homework before commencing their trading on any given day. The fact of the matter is that the concepts of financial reform and the SEC issues did not just come about yesterday nor was it decided suddenly yesterday to vote on cloture and then a bill to present to the president. Thus, with the news out there for some time, this was clearly not a new worry. Second, whenever a major worry is taken off the table, it always sets the stage for relief whether in trading or in life. No matter how bad this financial regulation reform was going to be, there was certainty as to what it’d be as of yesterday- officially. Ditto for the SEC settlement which was announced yesterday afternoon. Finally, many analysts firmly believe that the regulatory reform and an SEC settlement could have been much more Draconian in nature. With a somewhat watered down package on the verge of passing along with GS’s past sins wiped out for lack of better verbiage, the nervousness that something new and sinister could occur for GS’s business was alleviated. I mean, Elin Woods supposedly got more from Tiger than the government/damaged investors got from GS! Therefore, when all was said and done, it was the shorts who were hoping for something worse who got nervous and covered rather than scared longs selling shares of GS yesterday.

Markets overnight were mixed but notably moved in some cases. Hong Kong was flat, but the Nikkei fell almost 3% in Tokyo. In Europe, averages are well off of their highs with the DAX flat and London down slightly despite the bourses trading up almost 1% earlier. Gold is selling off hard with oil down slightly, bonds up slightly, but for a 2nd day in a row, the dollar is getting pummeled with the euro having regained 1.30 and the 87 yen benchmark gone. For today, it’s not so much the bulls vs bears as it is past vs future. Stocks like GS are up on the settlement and AAPL on rumors that there will not be an iPad 4 recall. But the dollar as noted is very weak which indicates the market is suddenly worried about growth prospects for the U.S. economy. In what has been an extremely busy morning (I started placing trade orders around 6:30AM ET when GE first came out), it looks to be a very busy day particularly on an options expiration Friday. The core CPI came in slightly above expectations which provides some comfort, but the dollar is not acting well. Look for a down day today with the focus on the banks (especially pre-open), small cap biotechs (particularly the ‘weight loss’ stocks), big cap tech in the news (AAPL and GOOG), drillers on the BP news of the last day, fertilizers on their strength yesterday, and any relative strength play particularly on the open.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

AMD- decent earnings

JBHT- decent earnings

GS- closed near a high on rumors of an SEC settlement and financial reform passage; both occurred after the bell

BP- closed near a high after the company noted it had capped the well at least temporarily

RIG, APC- closed near high

POT, MOS, MON- closed near their highs

ID- closed near a high on rumors of a takeover

RIMM- closed near a high

SINA- closed near a high after being upgraded by Susquehanna

SD, ABT- mentioned on “Mad Money” last night

ANGO- decent earnings

IR- decent earnings guidance

GE- decent earnings

RLD- IPO of 12.5 million shares at 16 above expected 10.75 million shares priced between 13-15

AVII- received U.S. government contract with potential funding up to $291 million

SCHW- decent earnings

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

GOOG- terrible earnings

PLCM- poor earnings

ARNA, OREX- closed near lows after VVUS’s drug was rumored to have been rejected

VVUS- sure enough, VVUS’s weight obesity drug was rejected by the FDA after the close

ONP- closed near a low

KLIC- closed near a low for a 2nd day after making comments on Wednesday about delayed orders for the quarter

BAC- poor earnings

COL- poor earnings

Earnings:

FRI JUL 16 BEFORE

BAC C COL

FHN GCI GE

GPC MAT WBS


Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
 
MON. JUL. 19- The Value Of An Education

For those of us who went to college, we may have well worried about the amount of money being spent to go there, but few of us questioned the money’s (educational) purpose- not only to learn about the world but obviously about whatever academic lessons we could garner. For anyone who has taken diving classes, flight lessons, music lessons, acting lessons, or attempted to take karate long-term, the money spent toward learning whatever skill we are trying to acquire is rarely if ever questioned. Whether it be the ability to play the flute, go diving in the Great Barrier Reef area (an amazing experience I got to enjoy), or attempt to better oneself by acquiring a black belt, currency used to acquire such lessons is very unimportant in the big picture. Trading is slightly different in that the end goal is actually to acquire money rather than to become the next Big Music Star. But over time I’ve learned the following: every trading mistake I make has 10,000 cousin mistakes with 99.5% of the mistakes I make of the variety I’d not define as “stupid.” Let me delve into this a bit more. A “stupid” mistake to me is doing something I know I should not be doing. For instance, if the market is rallying hard with Apple (AAPL) having rallied 1 ½ points in two minutes and I short a small 500 shares in thinking the rally has had it only to watch my account decline by $250 in 15 seconds…and then $500 in 45 seconds, that is stupid because there was no definitive reason to enter the trade followed by a major lack of discipline in exiting. With that in mind, every time I take a loss in a trade and don’t understand why (even if it is 33 times in a row), I view it at the end of the day as a tuition payment because I learn from it. I study the previous day’s trades every single day in immense detail and focus equally on what I did right with what I did wrong. Day trading in the end is an odds game- it is just that one has to stack the odds in one’s favor to succeed. Thus, as the market environment continues to get seemingly stranger with each passing day and the amount of mistakes I for one make continues to be, well, steady, I take solace in realizing that I am learning as I go much less rectifying the mistakes to maintain my status as a profitable trader. It is my firm belief, therefore, that for any trader to succeed, he/she must recognize the value of his/her mistakes rather than grumbling about how expensive they are else the mistakes will likely keep occurring with increasing frequency- and cost.

Markets overseas were mixed overnight with Tokyo closed and Hong Kong down 0.8% but the European markets are generally in the green with London and Frankfurt both up 0.6%. The euro is notably stronger against the dollar with oil and bonds steady but gold down 0.5%. The newsflow has been quite interesting with Irish debt being downgraded by Moody’s and the Hungarians having IMF financing cancelled. But this has been counterbalanced by a positive “Barron’s” article about Google and no major news out of BP or any other bombshells leading futures to a slight early gain. Look for a much quieter session than Friday’s trading day with a likely pside bias. Focus on the stocks in the news such as BIDU, the earnings plays such as HAL, and relative strength plays in any rally.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

MOS- closed near a high

QUAD- closed on a high

EBI- announced plan to liquidate Evergreen International Balanced Income Fund with shareholders receiving a liquidating distribution equal to the NAV on Aug. 16

PPG, AKS- featured on “Mad Money” Friday night

GOOG- highlighted positively in the “Barron’s” cover story over the weekend

HAL- decent earnings

MOT- announced it is selling its gear business to Nokia for $1.2 billion

BA- announced order for 30 Boeing 777’s from Emirate Airlines and that their overall view of the market is becoming more positive

ATAC- to be acquired by Genco for $25/share in cash

KWK- rumored to be out by India’s Reliance Industries

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

GS- island reversal in closing near a low despite the SEC settlement

RIMM- closed near a low on worries that AAPL may have fixed its problems

FCX- closed near a low

ADS- closed on a low

BIDU- closed near a low

DNDN- closed near a low

MA, V- closed near a low on worries about how the financial reform package will impact credit card payment rates

GOOG- closed near a low after posting terrible earnings

AMZN- closed near a low

BP, RIG, DO- closed near a low

X- closed near a low

APA- closed near a low

SLB, DVN- closed near a low

IBM- closed near a low

WLP- closed near a low

CERN- closed near a low

GILD- closed near a low after brokerage Jeffries warned on the company’s HIV-drud pipeline

BIDU- China’s main state-run television station accused the company of directing users to websites which sell counterfeit drugs






Earnings:

MON. JUL. 19 BEFORE

DAL EDU HAL

HAS MMR

MON. JUL. 19 AFTER

ATHR CCK IBM

LNCR NE PKG

STLD TXN TUP

ZION

Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
 
TUES. JUL. 20- Deflation In The Air?

If you were looking to pay a technological device with the thought its cost may come down (such as an iPad 4 or a big screen TV), would you wait to buy it or do it today if you really wanted it? If you were looking to buy a car and you’ve properly done your research with money being the only issue, would you wait to buy it or do it now? If you wanted to buy a house, would you do it now or wait? If you’re a manufacturer, and you need to purchase supply of goods, would you do it now or wait? If you are a home builder, would you build more homes now or wait? Now, I ask all of these questions with the assumption that, say, you don’t need to buy a car because yours broke down but simply because you need to do some point in the next 6-12 months. The fact of the matter is that if many many many people answer that they would wait for prices to come down, it is a major self-spiraling problem. If many many many manufacturers hold off on the purchase of product due to low demand, it’s a major self-spiraling problem. What is the problem from the consumer side? It’s a little bugaboo called deflation. Any central bank has a host of things it can do to combat strong growth such has hiking interest rates or sucking money out of the economy by things such as increasing margin requirements of markets. But there is no known tool to fight a deflationary spiral- ask the citizens of Japan who bought a SPY-like Nikkei instrument on New Year’s Eve 1989 and are down 78% on their money as of today. Inflation to some extent is normal. How would you feel if you were a teacher and was told you wouldn’t be getting a pay raise (or worse yet, getting a pay cut)? Another example: my Mom and numerous other retirees I know were furious when their cost of living adjustment for 2010 barely budged. Rampant inflation of course is bad as it takes away the value of things- the people of Germany in the 1930’s who had to use a box to carry enough paper currency to buy a loaf of bread can attest to that. But deflation? That can be even worse because the issue is almost entirely psychological and self-perpetuating. Everybody waits for everyone else and this creates an extended period of slightly stagnant or even declining prices- not just for TV’s but for the price of your house. The fact that the government has thrown everything it can at the economy and it has had no impact on prices shows of a masking of a problem- not inflation (at this point anyway) but potentially deflation. For day traders, it is important to watch things such as the consumer price index, producer price index, and housing prices for a gauge as to prices. Furthermore, the performance of the dollar will give a clue as well. The most important tell in the immediate-term is as I described in this space a couple of weeks ago in detail- the necessary return to revenue growth by companies. The fact that entities like IBM and GS missed their revenue estimates is a glaring deflationary warning sign. Whether deflation comes to pass (or has already started) is certainly not something I am qualified to hazard a guess at, but it is a word we’ll be hearing about increasingly in coming weeks and months as the effects of the stimulus (with a jobless and loanless) recovery lessen with each passing day.

The Nikkei fell 1% overnight in a catch-up effort after being closed yesterday but the rest of the Asian markets bounced with Sydney up 1% and Hong Kong about 0.9%. The picture is different in Europe with Frankfurt down 1.1% and London off 0.7%. Currencies are quiet with bonds slightly stronger and oil and gold down 0.5% or so each. The futures are down very sharply in the early going as IBM posted terrible earnings. Things only worsened when GS piled on when they missed their revenue estimates. There seems to be no major reason for the market to rally much so look for a downside day all day but more of a day for individual stock moves than the overall market. Focus on the myriad of earnings out there such as IBM, GS, UNH, and WHR, the financials with a number of companies in the industry having reported such as STT, and some relative strength plays should there be any short covering early on particularly in things like AMZN which indicated growing revenue growth last night.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

AMZN- noted its sales of Kindles was increasing each month of the 2nd quarter

ICUI- decent earnings

ZIOP- announced initiation of Palifosfamide phase III study

LDSH- decent earnings

RIMM- closed near a high

APA- closed near a high as it began to appear that the likelihood was declining of a BP-APA hook-up for an APA acquisition of some of BP’s businesses

FSLR- closed near a high

PII- decent earnings

WHR- great earnings

WFT- decent earnings

STT- decent earnings

UNH- decent earnings

WFT- decent earnings

MTG- good earnings

UAUA- decent earnings



Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

IBM- terrible earnings

TXN- poor earnings

STLD- poor earnings

NE- bad earnings

ATHR- bad earnings

ZION- poor earnings

TUP- awful earnings

BK- poor earnings

PEP- poor earnings

JNJ- terrible earnings

RSH- rumored Blackstone/TPG for RSH deal is off according to Reuters

CRUS- terrible earnings

BTU- poor earnings

GS- poor earnings

Earnings:

TUES. JUL. 20 BEFORE

AMTD BIIB BK

BTU CRUS FRX

GS HOG ITW

JNJ MI MTG

OMC PEP PII

STT UAUA UNH

WFT WHR



TUES. JUL. 20 AFTER

AAPL ALTR AMX

BSX CYT FIS

GILD JNPR LLTC

MDRX SLM STX

SYK TPX URI

VMW WCN YHOO

Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
 
a compelling case that deflation is bad was not presented. repeating mainstream economist opinion that deflation is bad is not proof. if there is one please present it..
 
Just saw this on my Blackberry...will not respond in detail right now as I need to focus. But one glaring example is the Great Depression. Things were so bad in the mid-1930's that the government taxed cash that banks were hoarding 9which caused the crash of 1937).

Quote from zdreg:

a compelling case that deflation is bad was not presented. repeating mainstream economist opin that deflation is bad is not proof. if there is one please present it..
More...
 
WED. JUL. 21- The True Open And Close

Particularly as earnings season is underway, it’s time to focus on a question I am frequently asked: at what time do you start looking at charts during the trading day? The trading day technically starts at 4AM ET when the ARCA ECN opens for business. However, most traders are sleeping at 4AM so there usually isn’t a lot of action until 7AM when the NASDAQ ECN opens. During earnings season, I am typically in the office until 7PM ET and then by 6AM ET the next morning to monitor the reaction of stocks to their earnings in actively trading said reactions late in the afternoon and early in the morning. By yesterday morning, for instance, I had a decent portion of my day earned in two trades by 8AM ET. However, most traders don’t actually begin trading actively until the open of the NYSE at 9:30AM ET. Because most traders don’t actively begin looking at stocks until 9:15AM ET, to me, it makes a lot of what already happening pictogram-wise somewhat irrelevant but certainly worth remembering. As the volume doesn’t come in until 9:30AM along with many of the algorithms from the trading computer programs, I tend to go with the crowd in relying upon graphs post 9:30AM ET to do any technical analysis. The major corollary to this decree is that I am ever-mindful of what happened in the hours leading up to the open. For instance, if a stock beat its earnings, but traded down 3 points at 6:30AM and then rallied to open up 25 cents in a market that opens up 200 Dow points, it’ll be a short thru the unchanged marker simply because of where it was earlier as it’d clearly display relative weakness to the market. Furthermore, with the move unexpected by many who simply started tracking the stock at the market open at 9:30AM ET in buying on ‘good news,’ it’ll make it that much smoother because a number of those people would begin sweating once the stock traded lower on the session. The bottom line is to track a stock’s progress post-NYSE open simply because everyone else is, but be aware of how the stock has already performed in the extended-hours because it can give you a guidepost as to its future direction.

Markets were mixed in Asia overnight with Tokyo down 0.2%, but Hong Kong up just over 1%. The picture in Europe was one of strength though after Wall Street’s rally yesterday with the bourses up 1% to 1.5% across the board. The yen is the strongest currency this morning with the dollar trading up against the yen but down against the yen. Oil and gold are both up modestly with bonds little changed. Futures are a bit stronger in building upon yesterday’s turnaround on the heels of AAPL’s great numbers. Good earnings from WFC and MS are helping as well. I never saw a total reversal yesterday and was wrong wrong wrong, but I don’t see how this one reverses either today. That said, as noted on the video last night, I focus on minute-to-minute so when so wrong, I try to quickly reverse myself in trading what I see rather than what I guess early on. Focus on the many companies out with earnings, the banks, and relative weakness plays just after the open should there be any profit taking into the opening rally.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

AAPL- great earnings

VMW- great earnings

CYT- great earnings

TPX- good earnings

ETH- great earnings

URI- good earnings

BP- announced $7 billion asset sale to APA

SLM- good earnings

GS- closed near a high after posting earnings

WYNN/LVS- closed near a high

TUP- near island reversal after posting poor earnings

FSLR- closed near a high

CLF- closed near a high

X- closed near a high

FCX- closed near a high

ANR- closed near a high

IBM- near island reversal after posting poor earnings

JOYG, BUCY- closed near a high

TXI- closed near a high after posting earnings

SCHN- closed near a high

RIMM- closed near a high

V, MA- closed near a high

GOOG- closed near a high

JCG, JCP- closed near a high

SLB- closed near a high

POT- closed near a high

STT- closed near a high after posting good earnings

CMA- decent earnings

ETN- good earnings

MAN- decent earnings

SWK- decent earnings

TXT- good earnings

USB- decent earnings

KO- decent earnings

CEPH- good earnings guidance

APH- good earnings

FCX- good earnings

MS- decent earnings

WFC- good earnings

LCC- decent earnings


Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

YHOO- terrible earnings

GILD- poor earnings

JNPR- decent earnings, but filed a shelf offering

STX- poor earnings

SYK- poor earnings

APA- announced acquisition of some BP assets, good earnings, but doing share offering

DEAR- terrible earnings

DGX- poor earnings

GNK- closed near a high, but announced share offering

TDW- terrible earnings guidance

GENZ- poor earnings

WYNN- poor preliminary guidance for Wynn Las Vegas

GS- earnings estimates taken down at Wells Fargo


Earnings:

WED. JUL. 21 BEFORE

ABFS ABT APH

BLK CHKP CMA

DGX ECA EMC

ETN FCX GENZ

HST KO LCC

MAN MO MTB

MS NTRS SWK

TXT USB UTX

WFC


WED. JUL. 21 AFTER

ADS AFFX AMLN

BIDU CA DOX

EBAY EW FFIV

FNF ISIL ISRG

KMP NFLX NTGR

QCOM RHI SBUX

SWI TEX TSCO

WDC XLNX

Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top