Energy Market Preview

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Energy Market Preview by Trade the News Staff

- The EIA releases its weekly natural gas inventory today. According to a widely followed wire survey, natural gas inventories are expected to have fallen 60 bcf. As of last week, natural gas inventories were 17.2% higher versus a year ago. Should the decline in natural gas storage match consensus expectations today, the yoy storage rate will fall to +15.9%.
- OPEC former President, Daukoru, said today that OPEC cuts are still to kick in and the producing group should wait until the impact of the cuts is assessed. Daukoru's comments follow a report by an oil tanker tracker, Oil Movements, yesterday, which said that OPEC exports are set to rise 1% or 250,000 b/d in the four weeks ending Jan. 20, contradicting OPEC's annonuced cut of 1.2M b/d in late Oct.
- Qatar's oil minister said today that OPEC members may have consultations next week, adding that there may be a meeting before the group's next scheduled meeting in March. A Libyan oil official made similar comments, saying that an OPEC meeting may be called in Feb.
- Norways oil output in 2007 is to be somewhat lower than in 2006, according to the Norwegian Directorate. Last year the country produced about 3M barrels per day. Norway ranks 7th among the world's top oil producing countries.
- At 8:15 a.m. crude futures are down $0.61 at $54.99, reformulated gas futures are falling 1.8 cents to 146.90 and natural gas is down $0.05 at $6.11.
 
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Energy Market Preview by Trade the News Staff

- The main pipeline operator in Belarus said today that the Druzhba pipeline will be up and running today. The pipeline supplies Germany, the Ukraine and Poland. Belarus blamed Russia earlier for reducing pressure in the pipeline. And just a few minutes ago French oil producer, Total, said that crude supply from the pipeline to Germany has been halted. This follows news last week that Belarus imposed a duty of $45 per ton on Russian crude transits.
- Saudi Arabia said today that OPEC is concerned with the decline in oil prices and is considering further action. Saudi Arabia will reduce output by 158,000 b/d from Feb, conforming to the OPEC accord. Saudi Arabia also said that it is premature to talk about meeting before OPEC scheduled March 15th meeting. Elsewhere, Iran's OPEC governor said today that Iran will implement its 74,000 b/d in Feb. He also said that that OPEC is monitoring the market and will decide on action if needed.
- On the weather front, Accuweather wrote today on its website that winter is making a comeback, as the arrival of colder air and a clipper system will continue to transition the entire East back to more typical early January weather by Wednesday.
- At 8:15 a.m. crude future are up $0.72 at $57.03, unleaded gasoline futures are rising 1.2 cents to 150.50 and natural gas futures are up $0.28 at $6.46.
 
Energy Market Preview by Trade the News Staff

- Tomorrow the EIA releases its weekly energy inventory data. According to a major wire survey, crude inventories are expected to have fallen 500K barrels last week, gasoline inventories to have risen 2.6M barrels and distillate inventories to have risen 2.0M barrels. Ther refinery utilization rate is seen remaining unchanged.
- British Petroleum said that productinon declined for a sixth straight quarter in Q4 on start-up delays in the Gulf of Mexico and reduced crude flow at Brudhoe Bay. Output fell to 3.82M b/d from 4.02M b/d in Q3.
- The Kuwaiti oil minister said overnight that OPEC may cancel plans to expand production capacity because of the decline in crude prices. Elsewhere, Russia's President, Putin, told his cabinet to consider reducing oil output.
- On the weather front, Accuweather wrote on its website that Winter is finally making a comeback as snow will fall from the Great Lakes to the Southern Appalachian Mountains today, then the entire Eastern Seaboard will have its coldest daytime high temperatures in several weeks on Wednesday. The arrival of colder air will not just be limited to the East; artic air will begin pressing into the Northwest tonight, allowing snow to fall in Seattle and Portland.
- Crude futures are down $2.00 at $54.08, unleaded gasoline futures are off 3.4 cents at 143.40 and natural gas futures are down $0.02 at $6.36.
 
Energy Market Preview by Trade the News Staff

- The EIA releases its weekly inventory data at 10:30 a.m. According to a widely followed wire survey, crude inventories are expected to have fallen 1.5M barrels last week, gasoline inventories to have increased 2.5M and distillate inventories to have climbed 2.0M barrels. The refinery utilization rate is seen remaining unchanged.
- The President of Belarus, Lukashenko, said today that Belarus and Russia have agreed on a compromise in their row over Russian crude transits through pipelines that cross Belarus territory. Moscow has denied there is a compromise but acknowledged that Lukashenko called Putin. Germany's Chancellor, Merkel, has denounced Russia's actions to halt crude supplies to Europe as unacceptable.
- Chevron said that Q4 output fell 2% to 2.629M b/d from 2.683M in Q4 of 2005.
- The Financial Times reports today, citing an analysts at ING, Charles Robertson and Mark Cliffe, that Israel is concened that Iran may acquire nuclear weapons capability by the time the Bush Administration leaves office at the end of 2008 and is determined to prevent this. Israel may take the opportunity to attack with the cover of two U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups due to be in place in the Persian Gulf within weeks.
- On the weather front, Accuweather wrote today on its website that Winter is back across the Eastern Seaboard today, where temperatures will be at their coldest readings in several weeks. While this shot of Canadian air will be brief, an even stronger push of arctic air will bring snow to Seattle and Portland today, freeze the northern Rockies and northern Plains on Thursday, then slowly overspread the remainder of the nation through early next week.
- At 8:15 crude futures are down $0.64 at $55.00, unleaded gasoline futures are down 1.4 centrs at 145.50 and natural gas futures are up $0.13 at $6.76.
 
Energy Market Preview by Trade the News

- The EIA releases its weekly natural gas storage data today at 10:30 a.m. The consensus estimate is –45 bcf. Yesterday, the EIA reported that crude inventories fell more than expected last week by 4.99M barrels due to lower imports, gasoline inventories rose more than expected by 3.763M and distillate inventories exceeded expectations by rising 5.402M.
- OPEC’s new President, Mohamed al-Hamli, called oil prices at $53 a barrel unacceptable and urged members to comply with pledged production cut. He added that it is very difficult to have 100% compliance from OPEC members. Finally, he said that no decision has been made to increase the output cuts that were agreed upon in December. Elsewhere, Venezuela’s oil minister said that oil will not fall below $50 a barrel.
- On the weather front, Accuweather wrote today that as arctic air encompasses the West Coast and leads to dangerously cold temperatures over the northern Plains and northern Rockies today and tonight, a snowstorm will spread through the Rockies, eventually impacting the Denver area. The storm will slowly emerge into the Plains, bringing a threat of plowable and blowing snow from the central Plains to northern New England Sunday and Monday.
 
Energy Market Preview by Trade the News Staff

- There was little in the way of energy news overnight following steep decline in major energy futures contracts yesterday after oil tanker tracker, Oil Movements, predicted in a report that OPEC exports will rise 350,000 b/d to 24.5M b/d in the four weeks ending Jan. 27 and following bearish EIA data yesterday and Wednesday, which showed a lower than expected drawdown in natural gas inventories and higher than expected builds in gasoline and distillate inventories.
- The North Sea Sullom Voe terminal, one of Europe's largest oil and gas facilities, resumed loading operations after shutting because of strong winds. The terminal handles oil from more than 20 fields in the North Sea.
- On the weather front, NOAA said yesterday that it expects warmer than normal weather in the Northern U.S. to continue through March.
- At 8:15 a.m. crude futures are up $0.12 at $52.00 and heating oil futures are rising .4 to 148.40.
 
Energy Market Preview by Trade the News Staff

- The Saudi Oil Minister, Al Naimi, said today that OPEC does not need an emergency meeting and that measures OPEC has taken are working well. He added that the market is closer to balance and that there is no need to panic over current prices. Elsewhere, the Nigerian oil minister, Daukuro, said today that the market is oversupplied by as much as 1M barrels b/d. Yesterday, officials from Kuwait and Qatar said OPEC should wait until Feb. before cutting production again, while oil minsters from Algeria and Venezuela disagreed.
- Yesterday, a fire was reported at a crude unit of Chevron’s Richmond refinery in California. The fire was brougt under control and the company said production was not affected.
- In Nigeria, Royal Durcth Shell evacuated staff from two oil installations in southern part of the country after community clashes left a dozen community chiefs dead. Production was not affected by the fighting. In response, the Nigerian military boosted troop levels in the votalite area.
- At 8:15 a.m. crude futures are down $1.00 at $52.00.
 
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