Energy Market Preview

Overblown weather concerns:

"Eastern Snow and Cold
Posted: 31-JAN-2007 07:40am EST
The promise of snow still exists, though it may not be as widespread and/or heavy as once hoped for or despaired of depending on your point of view. Most weather geeks are probably a little disappointed that a larger storm is not expected. That being said, Accuweather.com will still keep an eye on this southern Plains storm as it moves out of the Rockies. It will lead to as much as 6 inches over parts of the Colorado Rockies into northern New Mexico, then interact with colder air in the Plains to bring snow to parts of northern Texas into Oklahoma and eastward through northern Read More"

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/index-winter-center.asp?
 
Another forecaster, Weather Derivatives, is looking for temps in the Northeast to be 13 degrees below normal over the next 6-10 days and 15 degrees below normal in the Northcentral.
 
I was under the impression that Weather Derivatives was a Weather forecast interpreter for the financial markets, not so much a forecaster.

It would seem to make sense, to those of us who feel we can read weather forecasts without help, to get it from weather forecasts.

maybe i'm wrong in my assertion here. in any case, we'll all see soon enough.
 
W.D. provides temperature forecasts for the country, regions and cities (relative to average temps) as well as quantitative estimates of the impact of temps on cooling and heating demand.
 
Energy Market Preview by Trade the News Staff

- The EIA reports its weekly natural gas inventory data today. According to a widely followed wire survey, natural gas inventories are seen falling 200 bcf. Last week inventories were 10.02% higher than a year ago, down from 13% in the previous week.
- OPEC is set to begin today its second round of output cuts of 500,000 b/d. Iran said that it implemented cuts of 150,000 b/d in Jan to 4.04M b/d.
- Shell's CEO said today that violence in Nigera meant the company was losing 80,000 b/d. The company reported Q4 production up 4.1% from a year ago to 3.65M b/d.
- On the weather front, Accuweather wrote today that a storm system moving through the South has created dangerous icy conditions across the Carolinas and northern Georgia and heavy thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast. By Friday, the storm will graze the Northeast coast, wile brutally cold air pours into the northern Plains.
- At 8:10 a.m. crude futures are down $.03 at $58.11 and natural gas futures are up $0.15 at $.7.82.

TTN's outlook for February is posted at: http://www.tradethenews.com/monthly-forecast.php
 
Energy Market Preview by Trade the News Staff

- According to a Barron's article, government economists say more attention should be paid to the futures markets. Futures indicate that crude prices are likely to rise a little past $60/bbl and then stay in that range for years to come.
- Russian crude output and exports rose in January from a year ago. Output climbed 4.5% to 41.65M tons from 39.89 last year, while exports rose 1.3% to 5.29M b/d.
- Diplomats said today that Iran has begun putting down piping and electric cables for its undergreound uranium enrichment plant. A diplomat accredited to the IAEA said hundreds of technicians and laboreres were working feverishly at the Natanz underground facility. Yesterday, Iran's President, Ahmadinejad, said that U.N. sanctions won't deter Iran from pursuing its nuclear program.
- On the weather front, Accuweather wrote today on its website that the storm that brought weather ranging from snow to severe thunderstorms across the Southeast on Thursday will only graze the Northeast coast with rain and snow today. Residents across central Florida will also have to watch for more severe thunderstorms this morning. Most places across the Northeast and the Midwest will see snow, not from this storm, but from a cold front that will open the door for a blast of brutally cold arctic air.
- At 8:10 a.m. crude future are up $0.37 at $57.67.

TTN's outlook for February is posted at: http://www.tradethenews.com/monthly-forecast.php
 
Quote from TradeTheNews:

Energy Market Preview by Trade the News Staff

- The EIA releases its weekly natural gas inventory today. According to a widely followed wire survey, natural gas inventories are expected to have fallen 60 bcf....
More...

That is blatantly incorrect. The market was looking for a withdrawal in the 200 Bcf area, with estimates ranging from 165-225 Bcf. The 186 number was not outside of the range, but was on the low end of the market's expectations, which when coupled with current inventory levels leaves us with a ton of gas in storage to meet the rest of the heating season's demand.
 
PJKIII,
you are reading the energy market preview from january 5th in which the expectations were for a draw of 60bcf. in our preview dated Feb. 1 you will note that the expectations for natural gas inventories for that report were for a draw of around 200bcf. hope this clears up any confusion that you might have had.
 
Quote from TradeTheNews:

PJKIII,
you are reading the energy market preview from january 5th in which the expectations were for a draw of 60bcf. in our preview dated Feb. 1 you will note that the expectations for natural gas inventories for that report were for a draw of around 200bcf. hope this clears up any confusion that you might have had.
More...

Oh....I stand corrected. Sorry about that, I will look at dates more closely next time!
 
Energy Market Preview by Trade the News Staff

- A strike in Nigeria by the the two main oil workers unions has been called off pending a meeting with Nigeria's President. Also in Nigeria, officials said yesterday that militants released nine Chinese oil workers.
- Accuweather wrote on its website today that an arctic air mass will continue to slide eastward, reaching the East Coast today with the coldest temperatures this winter season. Accompanying the cold air are strong gusty winds that will create dangerously low wind chills and produce copious amounts of snow off the Great Lakes.
- At 8:10 a.m crude futures are up $0.26 at $59.26
 
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