End of stock market...

[Fx-Game]

Hi,

in the following chart you will see the correlation between unemployment statistics (initial application) and base rate:

Each time when there was a change in the unemployment curve, the base rate either followed or was already increasing/declining.

Now there has not been a big change in unemployment direction or base rate for quite some time ...

And it seems like there is a range forming in the unempl. curve:

By the way it is being told that Bridgewater Associates, a Hedge Fund that manages 150k billion dollars, has obtained 100k billion dollar on put positions on S&P500 and EuroStoxx50...

 

[wiesman02]

Market can't fall if fed keeps propping it up. Just buy the dips........seriously. Its that easy.

As long as we all can foresee a reason for the market to fall, its not gonna fall. Something has to catch us all off guard, then a steady stream of bad news has to follow. perfect storm. Look at 2008, nobody saw that coming. Look at 2000 tech, nobody saw that coming. '87....

 

[Nobert]

Bridgewater Associates, a Hedge Fund that manages 150k billion dollars, has obtained 100k billion dollar on put positions on S&P500 and EuroStoxx50...

Hey Fx,

are those numbers correct ?

Isn't the additional ,,k'' next to 150 representing extra ,,000'', so it would be 150 000 Billions ?

To answer original question, i leave that only only to pure technicals from now on ;

sometimes i think, wasn't their pre-early prediction - a bluff like in poker, maybe this time as well, since they know that everyone is watching.

 

[tomorton]

We're traders. What do we care?

 

[SteveM]

One thing that's troubling me about this rally, is that we've got new all-time high's in the S&P500 (orange line), yet only 66% of S&P 500 stocks are currently above their 50DMA (blue line).

You'll notice that during the parabolic blow-off top in January 2018, we had 85% of S&P 500 stocks above their 50DMA.

A part of me wants to say that the parabola in Jan 2018 was the true top, and the start-stop rally we have seen since them has been a combination of Fed speakers jaw-boning, rate cuts, and White House jaw-boning regarding a trade deal.

 

[Fx-Game]

Hey Fx,

are those numbers correct ?

Isn't the additional ,,k'' next to 150 representing extra ,,000'', so it would be 150 000 Billions ?

To answer original question, i leave that only only to pure technicals from now on ;

sometimes i think, wasn't their pre-early prediction - a bluff like in poker, maybe this time as well, since they know that everyone is watching.

Yes, that's a mistake... just got used to write 'k' too often;

I personally think, and this is what Bridgewater Associates put investments approve, that there are already many players that are getting ready for a decline in December or beginning of '20; at least securing their profits [hedging stock portfolio].

Like SteveM correctly mentioned, the jaw-boning regarding a trade deal may avoid it to happen too fast/early, if a deal is being closed.

I could imagine a big positive spike after deal confirmation, for some days or weeks, then after some time we would see the real outcome.

But what happens if a deal close takes longer?!
There must be some solution within the next week's.

Reaching all time highs again and having a close look on how market will react - break the support or not - will give us some clue on how nervous / strong the market is.

China's economy already has some damage; but many western countries are exporting high end products/ cars there.
So if the closing of the deal will take much longer, Chinese consumers or companies will stop making investments which will affect many export oriented companies in EU and US.

That could lead to a domino effect.

 

[maxinger]

That's the problem if you only do investing.
You keep on worrying when the world is going to end.
You keep on having sleepless night worrying what's going to happen tomorrow.
You keep on predicting when market is going to collapse.


That's why better day trade.
Because everyday, bull or bear, sunny day or rainy day, is a great trading day.
And end of day, you close your position, and have good night sleep every night.

 

[Fx-Game]

Yes, but daytrading has its own dangers ; )
Overtrading, high leveraging... boringness...

 

[dozu888]

That's the problem if you only do investing.
You keep on worrying when the world is going to end.
You keep on having sleepless night worrying what's going to happen tomorrow.
You keep on predicting when market is going to collapse.


That's why better day trade.
Because everyday, bull or bear, sunny day or rainy day, is a great trading day.
And end of day, you close your position, and have good night sleep every night.

speak for yourself about the sleepless night lol...

Fidelity just reported 168000 '401k millionaires', how many 'elite' day traders here have made $1m, the bare minimum to be called successful... raise your hand?

time frame should be based on situation, not on fear.... 'never hold overnight' is a fear based decision.

have made many posts regarding this, during a long bull phase you want stay in position as greed is a slow motivation... can't count how many times I wake up I am already up $30k because of the overnight drift up.

 

[dozu888]

Notice the overwhelming pessimism out there....

nobody knows where the 'end' is... but by my estimation it's around $1000 AAPL... I posted a few days ago why the $1000.

there is a long way to go.