End of stock market...

[Fx-Game]

Notice the overwhelming pessimism out there....

nobody knows where the 'end' is... but by my estimation it's around $1000 AAPL... I posted a few days ago why the $1000.

there is a long way to go.

Viewing your profile is limited; maybe you could post a link here?!

 

[dozu888]

Viewing your profile is limited; maybe you could post a link here?!

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/where-are-the-bears.337436/page-3

post#22.... all real math, not pie in the sky fantasy..

 

[Fx-Game]

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/where-are-the-bears.337436/page-3

post#22.... all real math, not pie in the sky fantasy..

Thanks,
but one stock solely - apple, which is quite successful by default - is not representative for the whole macro economics.

 

[vanzandt]

time frame should be based on situation,

 

[dozu888]

Thanks,
but one stock solely - apple, which is quite successful by default - is not representative for the whole macro economics.

2 things.

- the yield gap is there for everything... LQD is at 3% and SPY is forward yielding 5.3%... buy back will not stop until the gap closes.

- so many analysts in the market trying to gain the slightest edge by picking stocks, they are all priced 'fairly'... so AAPL at 20 p/e is priced fair just as AMZN is at 70 p/e.... I just happened to use aapl for the round number 1000.

 

[smallfil]

Notice the overwhelming pessimism out there....

nobody knows where the 'end' is... but by my estimation it's around $1000 AAPL... I posted a few days ago why the $1000.

there is a long way to go.

What did Warren Buffett say? Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful. We have more lemmings being afraid now because the hacks on cable TV continue to promote doom and gloom and recession fears. That is a very strong buy signal. Lots of monies on the sidelines waiting to be invested. What do you think will happen to the stockmarket when those monies all go in the stockmarket?

 

[Real Money]

during a long bull phase you want stay in position

dozu888, do you want to reaffirm your Dow 40,000 call? Any time frame on that?

How does the LQD forward yield spread factor into that?

 

[Edmond]

speak for yourself about the sleepless night lol...

Fidelity just reported 168000 '401k millionaires', how many 'elite' day traders here have made $1m, the bare minimum to be called successful... raise your hand?

time frame should be based on situation, not on fear.... 'never hold overnight' is a fear based decision.

have made many posts regarding this, during a long bull phase you want stay in position as greed is a slow motivation... can't count how many times I wake up I am already up $30k because of the overnight drift up.

I'm raising my hand dozu, up $2.7m

 

[Edmond]

Market can't fall if fed keeps propping it up. Just buy the dips........seriously. Its that easy.

As long as we all can foresee a reason for the market to fall, its not gonna fall. Something has to catch us all off guard, then a steady stream of bad news has to follow. perfect storm. Look at 2008, nobody saw that coming. Look at 2000 tech, nobody saw that coming. '87....

The perfect storm was the week of Halloween and the bear didn't materialise...

 

[dozu888]

dozu888, do you want to reaffirm your Dow 40,000 call? Any time frame on that?

How does the LQD forward yield spread factor into that?

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/valuationfed.pdf

SP fair value 5000-9000, depending on if you use corporate bond or 10-year as reference.