end of day swing trading(ES)

[eyedy]

Anyone who enters a swing trade with a trending market will come into profitability given enough time. Your entries will just determine how much DD you will have to entertain before reaching the magical profit point.


Where you get screwed is when the long term trend changes.

You are correct. the whole point of this strategy is identifying trend changes.

and I switch my position from long to short and vice versa accordingly.

hope you enjoy the journal! ^^

 

[eyedy]

Anyone who enters a swing trade with a trending market will come into profitability given enough time. Your entries will just determine how much DD you will have to entertain before reaching the magical profit point.


Where you get screwed is when the long term trend changes.

one more thing,

past couple of years, one can say it was not a trending market at least in SPX.
but still this strategy managed to generate good returns in those years.

I believe this strategy can be profitable in both trending and non trending market environment and it identifies trend changes.

 

[Scataphagos]

I don't use TA and I don't use stops.

You will eventually... if you survive.

You probably already use more TA than you realize. Just not calling it that.

 

[eyedy]

I survived because I don't use TA and hard stops.

I expected a kind of fun experience posting here, but your comments make me rethink about this online trading journal.

 

[wintergasp]

In my experience, a good target for Max DD is a typical good month, not your target year's returns.

Good luck....Bob

@eyedy

His targets are actually very standard in the hedge fund industry. If over 10 or 20 years of simulations you have an *average* annualized return of 10% and a *maximum* peak-to-valley drawdown of 10%, including open equity trades etc., you actually have something quite robust.

Something that delivers 100% a year with 10% max peak-to-valley drawdown doesn't exist outside of ponzis and over-fitted models

My humble opinion

 

[Scataphagos]

I survived because I don't use TA and hard stops.

I expected a kind of fun experience posting here, but your comments make me rethink about this online trading journal.

Thin skin? You've got 20 posts. Where did you come from? Selling something?

A word of advice. EVERYONE I've ever heard about who claims to not use stops eventually gets eaten by the market. Just because you are ahead today doesn't mean you're a winner. You are NOT a "winner" until you quit and have the market's money.

"You never count your money while you're sittin' at the table. There's time enough for counting when the dealin's done." --The Gambler

 

[wintergasp]

Thin skin? You've got 20 posts. Where did you come from? Selling something?

A word of advice. EVERYONE I've ever heard about who claims to not use stops eventually gets eaten by the market. Just because you are ahead today doesn't mean you're a winner. You are NOT a "winner" until you quit and have the market's money.

"There's time enough for counting when the dealin's done." --The Gambler

In trend following it's a bit different, you don't have a "stop" per say, you just close your position and revert your exposure if the trend is inverted. So you're often either +1 or -1

 

[Scataphagos]

In trend following it's a bit different, you don't have a "stop" per say, you just close your position and revert your exposure if the trend is inverted. So you're often either +1 or -1

Hardly that black and white, is it?

 

[wintergasp]

Hardly that black and white, is it?

Yes, you usually have a portfolio of 30 markets and you're either long/short or, long/short/flat, most trend following is a derivative of a moving average that you transform into a z-score through whatever process you have.

That, as opposed to most trading style where you're long and have a stop loss. It's more about keeping a portfolio of well balanced risk-adjusted assets

 

[Scataphagos]

Yes, you usually have a portfolio of 30 markets and you're either long/short or, long/short/flat, most trend following is a derivative of a moving average that you transform into a z-score through whatever process you have.

That, as opposed to most trading style where you're long and have a stop loss. It's more about keeping a portfolio of well balanced risk-adjusted assets

What's that? Diversified "buy and hold"? Sort of like a mutual fund or an index ETF? Pfffffft!