emini - choppy or trend determination

[cpo]

Originally posted by profitseer
cpo, could be, but then again, you can get your head handed to you all day long and the market closes up one point.

I see your point, profitseer, and that's what Dow Theory is all about. Nevertheless I am talking about a tradeable trend within your "tradeable frame". Now, how you are going to tell if the trend is tradeable or not is up to you, my friend.

cpo

 

[hardcash]

Originally posted by esu2
Is there a signal that will say: the mkt is going to chop
for the next 3 hrs... or be choppy today..

esu2

the market will hardly chop for 3 hrs on the 1min timeframe, even on 5min...

beside this you can use a pattern made public by linda raschke. it is called "3 pushes down/up" or "3 little indian", means, when you have had 3 up- or downlegs, the trendmode is done and 1) a deeper corrective move or 2) a range or 3) a consolidation in the form of a triangle or 4) a direct trendreversal can follow...but you still have to choose what you like to look for...

 

[esu2]

Hardcash:

The market chopped "perfectly" on the one
min chart for the first three trading hrs of 9/11
as I posted before:

(sorry for the blurriness..due to file size limitations)

 

[Pabst]

Originally posted by esu2
Hardcash:

The market chopped "perfectly" on the one
min chart for the first three trading hrs of 9/11

You don't really think 9/11, delayed opening and all, is in any way, a "typical' day, do you?

 

[hardcash]

@esu2

you are right, im trading NQ, therefore 3hrs on the 1min seemed a bit rare to me...

 

[profitseer]

Pabst, As long as you have been trading, I doubt you have ever seen a "typical" day in the market your whole life!

(maybe, "Hey, this kind of reminds of a day we had in the winter of '89.")

 

[Pabst]

Originally posted by profitseer
Pabst, As long as you have been trading, I doubt you have ever seen a "typical" day in the market your whole life!

(maybe, "Hey, this kind of reminds of a day we had in the winter of '89.")

Point well taken profitseer, but using 9/11 as an example of choppiness is like using Oct.29,1929 as an example of how shorting the market is always a sure thing.

 

[profitseer]

Yeah, but if I made 18 points one typical day trading es, and then I had 180 untypical days where I either made or lost a few points, I can still say, "On a typical day I make 18 points." Right?

 

[Pabst]

Originally posted by profitseer
Yeah, but if I made 18 points one typical day trading es, and then I had 180 untypical days where I either made or lost a few points, I can still say, "On a typical day I make 18 points." Right?

Maybe that would be Bill Clinton's definition of "typical."

 

[J_Commisso]

Originally posted by profitseer
The market chops 90% of the time. This isn't even debatable. I have read it in many books and on this site many times and especially heard it by trendtader system salesman. The only thing that is debabtable is some say it only chops 85% of the time.

So now that we know one thing for absolutely sure, it ought to be very easy just to trade the chop instead of sitting around for 85 to 90 percent of the time twiddling our thumbs counting money.

I guess it is all dependent on ones definition of "chop", BWTF are you talking about??? 85-90% I dont think so!

Acutualy I can state a case that markets trend 90% of the time on one TF or another! It is simply a matter of ones perception.

When is the last time the ES chopped in a range on the Daily TF???

In addition; Absolutely sure relates to the past, one thing you can be absolutely sure of in this game is that you can be absolutely sure of NOTHING!

PEACE and good trading,
Commisso