emini - choppy or trend determination

Originally posted by Runningbear
A chaotic system will exhibit trending behavior for periods and non trending behavior for periods. There is no set or predictable pattern to these two primary characteristics. We just know that both will occur at some time.

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We can never know if a trend is the result of a cause, or simply a series of random coincidences. All we can do is build a trading system that profits from that trend.

Everything else is just not worth thinking about.
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i'd like people's thoughts on runningbear's statements above. i believe runningbear is saying that you can't predict what is going to happen, you just know there is going to be movement.
 
I think you can predict the end of a trend.

Nitro is on to something when he brought up volume.

Volume steadily decreases.. the mkt begins to chop.

A good indicator would be moving avg volume..
although I cannot produce it with quote.com charts.
 
You can't predict the end of a trend - but you can see it.


What it boils down to is the simple fact that you guys lack confidence, thus you endlessly look for crutches to prop you up. consistent successful trading will elude you unless and until you begin to believe in yourselves and your own abilities.

If you stop trying to predict the market, and simply follow it you will do much better.
 
Originally posted by AllenZ
What we as traders must realize is that we dont trade in a box. I came to this conclusion quite sometime ago and it greatly helped me in trading. All this means is just because you may trade off a 1min or 5min you should at least be aware of the trend in other time frames, as well as, the daily of course. This will enable you to see the bigger picture and more easily aid in identifying targets for entry and exit.
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Originally posted by inandlong
Alan Farley of Hardrightedge.com refers to trading in two different time frames as time frame error.
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That's also my point of view. Different times frames are in complete harmony with each other in that we can have a better grasp of the whole market flow while we look at the bigger and the micro picture. The Dow Theory can help us to better grasp the dynamics between different times frames, in which each time frame is a microcosm within the whole macrocosm of the market flow.

However I came up with a fundamental question a few days ago at http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=8586 about the suitability of following different time frames at an applicational level, i.e., for execution purposes. In other words, its suitability for the "now moment" of trading.

And the answer to the question seems to be simpler than we could imagine: as far as the trend in a single time frame is tradeable, we don't have to concern ourselves about what's going on in the other frames. An important factor here is that, trading being about probabilities and not certainties, that small tradeable trend within a smaller time frame could well be the beginning of a move of major proportions in the longer ones. And if you were focused in the probabilities of the major frame you could just miss the boat. Then you would better have your risk and strategy based upon it too.

As the wise man said: the answer is always in the question itself.

cpo
 
Originally posted by esu2

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Is there a signal that will say: the mkt is going to chop
for the next 3 hrs... or be choppy today..

esu2
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That's one thing that TRIN (and variations) can be used for - in some circumstances anyway - and in conjunction/conformation with other indications
 
cpo, could be, but then again, you can get your head handed to you all day long and the market closes up one point. Next day, same thing, after a week, the daytrader is complaining about the endless chop while the week trader is sitting on a 5 point profit.

Interesting topic. Because it's all how you look at it. Poor esep is getting criticized for trying to trade the chop instead of the trend, but in the choppers world, the move that trenders call the chop is the choppers trend.

You take all those little moves from the upper band to the lower band and put them together and you can have a pretty good trend going on right inside your own little futures account.

I know I fell in love with daytrading because there is not a day that goes by that somewhere in that trading session was a very good trend if you can just catch it. And I suppose most position traders can look back and say the same thing about every year.

So anyway you look at it, if you are trading for more than one tick you need a trend. So if you are trying to buy the lower band and sell the upper band, it doesn't do you much good if you discover the perfect chop indicator if the market chops so bad you can't even trade the chop you are trying to trade.

So what you need is an indicator which tells you when the market will trend, but not trend too much. Just stop trending when I fade, then start trending in my direction until I can get out, and then chop the other way right after I fade again. Is that too much to ask?
 
The market chops 90% of the time. This isn't even debatable. I have read it in many books and on this site many times and especially heard it by trendtader system salesman. The only thing that is debabtable is some say it only chops 85% of the time.

So now that we know one thing for absolutely sure, it ought to be very easy just to trade the chop instead of sitting around for 85 to 90 percent of the time twiddling our thumbs counting money.

Best way would be to fade 8 tags then go with 2.

(and you know darn well somebody is going to go back and look at a chart and see if this would work!)
 
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