Elite Trader's Gambler's Anonymous ETGA

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Today's Trades (Tuesday)

Oanda was late because of an interest rate change today.

Two limit orders filled on EUR/HUF today, averaging in more positions, average trade price is 249.67 now with 18,432 units being held ...

AUD/JPY 20,165 units at an average of 82.62
GBP/CHF 8,969 units at an average of 2.2743
 

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It seems that there could be a combination of many concepts that can be used in the next forward test:

  • [*]faure time increments (17:00est, with minimum targets to take, based on the instruments volatility)
    [*]halves and singles "weighted grid" (halv-trade unit size or full trade size, based on a rolling 1Y or 5Y trend, at the Oanda histories site the average price is given along with the O/H/L/C).
    [*]spreadsheet fully integrating cash, carry and volatility grabbing (System#1, System#2, and 3:1 cash ratio).
    [*]martingale effect not developed yet besides the halves and singles above...still needs an increase based on the drawdown that unrealized simulates
    [*]8 currency trading (not necessarily 15 pair) AUD, JPY,CHF, EUR, GBP, USD, NZD, CAD


What do you think? Anybody?

Michael B.
 
Today's Trades (Wednesday)

This system made 2% in 17 days and trades 365 day's. (thats 50% per year, for 36.5 hours of labor)

Since this is not gambling, perhaps a cash 4:1 ratio should be the goal, as the "gambling meter" could be "dialed down" still giving a reasonable yield...

It current level is unacceptable.
 

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Todays spreadsheet in about 3.5 hours from now will reflect some rare trading in system #2 (cash & carry) I was able to get rid of a GBP/CHF loss that was weighting the average price down. I used mostly AUD/JPY profitable positions to take out those losses and was able to net a small $2.53 net. I sacraficed the long weekend hold to do this, but I wanted to take off that GBP/CHF loser.

I did add 2000 units of GBP/CHF at 2.2447 and 2.2452 to get the position value back up to the 49k range (53 or 54k is the target, but this is not an exact science). Lets see how much that will yield in interest tomorrow...


Michael B.

And for you observant ones, you will notice an extra tab with a trend analysis for the EUR/USD. This is in preperation for System #1 resumption in forward testing, coming soon. Have a fantastic memorial day weekend! And good trading to the rest of the Global readers, checking in on this Journal :)

 
I like slices. I learned about "slices" from a Japanese trader, whom I respect greatly, several years ago. But the traditional time increments that I am using will be changed to factors of 4...The week, month, 3 month, 6 month, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, 5Y will be changed.

I don't want to talk about this much ...ok..

but traditional parameters should NOT be what is analysed...for "grid balance". I believe "Slices" and "Grid Width" if matched correctly can become quite efficient.

so the spreadsheet will be changed...Stay Tuned.

Michael B.

BEFORE YOU GO AND SAY ELECTRIC HAS FLIPPED, PLEASE TRY TO UNDERSTAND THAT THIS WHOLE CONCEPT IS NON-TRADITIONAL TRADING AND IF YOU ARE READING THIS FAR, THEN YOU ARE INTERESTED IN NON-TRADITIONAL TRADING. I HAVE NEVER BEEN MUCH OF A USER OF FIBONNACCI OR WAVES, BUT FRACTALS SEEM INTERESTING. I LISTENED TO SOME GUYS TECHNIQUE SEVERAL WEEKS AGO AND PULLED SOMETHING OUT OF IT ABOUT USING 4'S AS INCREMENTS...THATS ALL.
 
I was thinking of something like this to analyse trend (see attached).

The increments on the graph will match the "dw increments"eventually.

Remember the thought is to use double "dw unit size" in the direction of the trend when compared to the other side of the grid, which will use half "dw unit size".

Diversifying across many pairs is paramount to the success of this. It still bothers me about choosing pairs that move together though.

Michael B.
 

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Interesting....

Are you thinking about using this trend analysis to determine the initial start as well? So if you started now you would have twice the number of short positions as you would long?
 
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