Elite Trader's Gambler's Anonymous ETGA

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Here is the proposed working model for System#1. There will be many changes, but this is what it looks like so far.... (see attached)

Introducing, "Increment Finder" (working on unit size calculator).

Don't forget to scroll (this is made on a 21" screen).

Michael B.
 

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No, but that could be done. I have limited funds, so I will start from scratch.

Dw, your comments are welcome as always...any thoughts?

Michael B.


Quote from Davidwillis:

Interesting....

Are you thinking about using this trend analysis to determine the initial start as well? So if you started now you would have twice the number of short positions as you would long?
More...
 
Most investment, speculation and trading for me follows a pattern.

I loathe gambling (that was a part of a lifestyle that all of us have experienced, some more than others). When I finish my book, you can read the autobiography section then. I will not bore you with my earlier years of gambling in Las Vegas.

I have several spreadsheets and streams. I do not want to brag. But I am sharing a "way to think" that has worked for me and many others.

Some say, Electric why do you do this and write all this stuff in ET. Again, I am not scared and I enjoy giving. I get it all back plus more, believe me. But if I didn't, I don't care, because in my heart, I get a release of positive feelings, that nobody can take away from me.

This Journal has been fun. I will continue as long as people are following it. I notice a few open up the "cash & carry" spreadsheet. I do not know if they are following it, or waiting for me to blow up! he he...But according to some PM's, blowing up is not the case.

I have blown up in Forex earlier. Look at the balance section of the spreadsheet...I still need around $500.00 to come back to breakeven after a system that traded using Bollinger Bands blew up. The climb back has taken over a year. I have learned that "slow and steady", beats the market!

Each market I trade has one of these spreadsheets. They are vastly different styles and methods of trading across Futures, Options and Forex. I have traded Commodities and equities too, but not just now. They are all connected to my Master Portfolio exposures and summaries spreadsheet. I will say that you only need 10% per year compounding to build your retirement account. Traders avoid that roller coaster ride...go the slow and steady way. Don't worry, I can keep you busy across several markets. Just check in on this Journal from Time to Time...We have just begun.

Now, I ask you to Join the roundtable at ETGA and share your autobiography of Trading.

Your stories are a great enjoyment for me, while we take this break in Trading and Development. I am reading some books in between your posts here in this Journal. I want to thank ET and ALL traders for your support, PM's and posts. I don't think there is one trader I do not like and identify with. View ETGA as your place to come and read about common sense and to overcome and remove the gambling out of your trading. Turn your gambling meter down. Now this Journal is not for you superstars that visit ET, that can and do make millions a year from trading. Yes there are a few of you genetically, talented ones, I know. This Journal is not for you.

Michael B.

P.S. Hold your PM's to a minimum...go ahead, post here in the Journal...don't be shy.
 
Today's Trades (Saturday)

New APR column

New APR column for Cash

On Tuesday I will need to add some units to increase yield, maybe 500 units of EUR/HUF and 500 units of GBP/CHF (these pair are trading the farthest away from the current trade price).
 

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dw,

After thinking about this, I cannot use the "Quick Start" method of initial entry, because of the half, normal and double trade size that 'would have" been a factor in the build up.

but....

For those traders that prefer fixed unit size entry and maintenece, I have left the cells intact on the spreadsheet. (tip: You can later switch to optimized trend entry at "mid or median-grid" as the EUR/USD demonstrates currently).

So....

I can use the "dw Quick Start" on the EUR/USD..but the other pairs must be evaluated..

also....

Support and Resistance is not null and void and after all, Support and Resistance is based on previous prices and works well. So yes, I think previous range is valid and this new concept of trade size will capitalize on Trend Direction and Support and Resistance, because of the way to evaluate "Longer Trend" and "Fast Trend" (stay tuned)

Being that the broker I use, allows "one-unit size increments" the capitalization does not matter. Since I am a "yield trader", size would not matter other than the fixed labor costs expended. I will be using the "faure time interval" entry method, so intraday labor has been eliminated. When the trend is choppy, normal trade size will be used (not half and not double). Early exits that are near the current "increment finder" target will be taken at the "faure time interval" which for me is around 17:00 est. after interest is posted on the platform.

(More work completed along with the introduction of normal trade size, See attached spreadsheet)

Michael B.

The martingale will be based with realized yield on balance and step up with a formula that I do not know yet. But being that a fixed unit size is used that is half, normal or double, the calculation will be a traditional method, such as a percent of equity.


Quote from Davidwillis:

Interesting....

Are you thinking about using this trend analysis to determine the initial start as well? So if you started now you would have twice the number of short positions as you would long?
More...
 

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Electric,

So let me see if I have this right.
  • You are going to update that spreadsheet manuelly every day for each pair! How many pairs will you be trading?
  • After you get done updating your spreadsheet (about 10 minutes a pair) You will take a once a day snapshot at around 17:00 or 17:30est and look at your position(s). If you have an open order you will change/amend/update it. If you have an executed order you will adjust it's TP...you have no stops..

I suggest that you consult Mr. Tripack about this...

Wifey

Is this system going to produce more profit than System #2 with one pair? Because it better, as it has two times more labor, if you count the time to update your trend analysis and spreadsheet. I suppose you do not count the HOURS you waste here in ET.
 
Teaching a "way to think" about Labor and Diversification in trading takes time and I am always learning.

The concept of "The Gambling Meter" must be taught step by step. With this concept, time is actually on your side, in an environment where time in the market is NOT on your side. Any market can use this concept, it's just not currency carry trading and volatility grabbing. Money Management plays a larger role then the current beliefs have migrated to. Earlier, in the bubble days, there were Money Management liberals who preached it.

If it takes hours everyday here in ET, then so be it.

If I can ever finish my Book...Wifey will get her Hummer, as I believe there are perhaps hundreds of thousands of people who want to trade and do not....(and I expect eveyone of you ET guests to buy it :))

All the money I make from trading goes right back into the "Business of Trading" for our Retirement.

There are not many traders sharing what I share. This is a business and how many spreadsheet's list the time expended as a field? (exclude option traders, please) Time and efficiency are MAJOR factors in trading and rarely discussed. System #1 is a wasteful system of hedging in a illusionary exchange of Currency in a "made up" Retail Spot Forex market. To make sense of this is quite troubling....

Michael B.

I once worked for a Doctor as a Businee Consultant. He was a General Practicioner and practiced for over 40 years. He had race horses and was rather eccentric in his later years. Recently, he said to me...Michael I have been a Doctor for 40 years, do you think that over the years I have not ammassed a great amount of wealth? I answered Doctor, I have been a trader for 29 years, what do you think about me? The difference is that I know your financial condition....

The point here is to bring everything you do in trading back to reality. Do not let anything intimidate you. If you feel anxious...don't trade. There is plenty of time to trade and I am not talking to you scalpers or genetically, talented ones!

 
Today's Trades (Monday-Memorial Day)

Aligned scale of fast trend chart under the EUR/USD "Volatility Grabber" Tab and put today's prices in. (Not much change, still double on the short side, even though we have dropped up to 74 pips in the EUR/USD in the last 17.5 hours)

Updated Rules for C & C System.
 

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Today's Trades (Tuesday)

Added 1000 units AUD/JPY @ 81.88 and 1000 units of EUR/HUF @ 253.30 (I needed to increase a litte as discussed a few days ago, to make the yield go up, as I draw out 190.82/mo. I did exactly as discussed). Everthing done in your trading is thought out and if needed put it in your trade log. There are no quick decisions and there are little tiny adjustments, never big ones. If you feel anxious...well you know what to do...

Updated EUR/USD tab with latest prices (I need to do this daily to see how long it takes, so it will be a part of the daily posting, even though I am not trading it. This is a part of trading and the work that must be done to evaluate your plan).

In the EUR/USD we would still be doubling up on the short side, until the longer trend resumes...if there is indecision on the fast trend, we would switch to double on the long side, as the longer trend indicates that.

Please excuse the commentary. I just hope you folks are getting the idea on how we will build our grid/pool/grab...etc. and "how to think" in the Carry stategyy that is being traded live (for two months, here in ET since 03/30/05).

Michael B.
 

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