Elite Trader's Gambler's Anonymous ETGA

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I just can't get "System #1", purged from my mind.

System #2 does nicely and I should be satisfied with labor and 25% per year. But I only get the 25% and that is not after labor. As I stated my goal in Retail Spot Forex Trading is to pay myself for labor and also yield 25% APR.

Labor in System #2 is 6 minutes*365 days/60 minutes= 36.5 hours for one year.

In two weeks System #2 has made 1% which is about 26% per year at that rate. There is not any compounding because the profits from the System gets transferred over to cash to bring it to its target-ratio of 3:1, then I also deplete it monthly with $190.86. The target ratio is sadly lacking (currently around 1:1) and the low amount of cash means that the "gambling meter" is set too high.

There are times System #2 trades. But it only trades when a two-fold purpose is being executed and fullfilled. This two-fold purpose is to pull out profit faster than 26% APR and at the same time pulls in the average trade price closer to the current price.

So this brings the portfolio back full circle to the goals expressed in this Journal. A low labor version of System #1 is needed to diversify and to increase yield after total portfolio labor.

Michael B.
 
The only way that I can trade System #1 is :
  • Time increments once a day (maybe twice-there is a fast time and a slow time), without targets or replacement trades.
  • Dwstart.
  • All 14 pairs.
  • Strict mechanical rules that turn or mimic discretionary techniques into consistant and non emotional, system like, behaviour.

I want to start buying inventory and filling my store up, to later sell at a profit (this fascinates me).

Michael B.
 
faure,

There must be more to it. If you pull up some of these 10Y histories, this would scare you to see the 5 year trends IN ONE DIRECTION. You say electric, why do you care about those ten year trends? I say, this is a carry strategy and YOU MUST.

All the baggagge carried of the open trades regardless of today's profits must be mind boggling...all I can think of is how much would I have needed to use discretionary techniques and money mangement to increase the accelerations necessary to keep up with that long pool widening trend. Then I am so thankful for the dwstart. But he says only use 1Y ranges, I just don't get it.

Michael B.



Quote from faure:

if the market goes up i sell. if it is up more the next day i sell again and so it continues, all the while taking profits on earlier longs, until the market drops. i then take profits on the short while simultaneously buying on the way down. then when it goes up again the cycle repeats itself.

that's the basis of it all but like i've said there more to it.

faure
More...
 
There are words being used here:
  • NAV
  • Balance
  • Unrealized P/L
  • Realized P/L
  • Margin Call
  • Leverage
  • Margin Used
  • Margin Available
  • Margin Percent
  • Position Value.

What the heck is the trade ticket percent setting calculating?...it does not match with ANYTHING and Oanda Customer service does not know!

Michael B.

P.S. Perhaps it is better to use the traditional stuff of money mangement. I just liked putting it on automatic from trade to trade...but until I can have this explained to me in "plain speak", I just don't know.





Quote from TriPack:

Here is something I've been puzzling over, that hopefully someone here will be able to help me with. I'm demoing a 5% position size on 6 different currency pairs. I thought using a fixed % on each currency pair would keep the position sizes in relative parity with each other for hedging and overall account balancing (same amount risked / gained on each pair for an equal pip move) but I'm not so sure anymore.

Here is what is happening on a recent demo trade with a 5% default position size:

Buy GBP/USD: 875 units
Buy USD/CHF: 1610 units

In this case if both pairs have a 100 pip move, the GBP pair will achieve roughly half the gain or loss achieved with the CHF pair. whereas if I had used a standard like 1200 units and each pair had a 100 pip move, the gain or loss by each would be in better parity.

I guess using a standard % for default order size assumes that currencies that trade at a premium to the USD (in this case GBP) will tend to be symmetrically more volatile than currencies that trade at a discount to the USD (like CHF). Perhaps this is true but I'm not sure.
More...
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

There are words being used here:
  • NAV
  • Balance
  • Unrealized P/L
  • Realized P/L
  • Margin Call
  • Leverage
  • Margin Used
  • Margin Available
  • Margin Percent
  • Position Value.

What the heck is the trade ticket percent setting calculating?...it does not match with ANYTHING and Oanda Customer service does not know!

Michael B.

P.S. Perhaps it is better to use the traditional stuff of money management. I just liked putting it on automatic from trade to trade...but until I can have this explained to me in "plain speak", I just don't know.
More...

I'm pretty sure it is % of "Balance". In that respect it works for the slight martingale that was originally envisioned.
 
If you set your preference to set your default order size in percent and use 50:1 leverage it calculates this:

Margin Available (from platform, constantly floating around) * leverage (50) * percent * .20

I verifed this by looking in FXmath and using the margin calculator and plugged in the units calculated FOR THAT PAIR, and it matched. You get different units for each pair because each unit has a different value for different pairs, but the dollar amount is observed and remains constant.

So at the time you click the buy/sell button your margin available could be temporarily inflated or deflated. But in theory your Balance should be growing causing your margin available to grow also, which causes the percent ticket to give a higher # of units.

Michael B.


P.S. What puzzles me, is how to avoid the "pockets of good times and bad times, nested within the grid.
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

faure,

There must be more to it. If you pull up some of these 10Y histories, this would scare you to see the 5 year trends IN ONE DIRECTION. You say electric, why do you care about those ten year trends? I say, this is a carry strategy and YOU MUST.

All the baggagge carried of the open trades regardless of today's profits must be mind boggling...all I can think of is how much would I have needed to use discretionary techniques and money mangement to increase the accelerations necessary to keep up with that long pool widening trend. Then I am so thankful for the dwstart. But he says only use 1Y ranges, I just don't get it.

Michael B.
More...

I never said to only use 1Y ranges. I am not really sure what the best way to use it is. I just had a thought and shared it with everyone. I really have not had the time to do much testing with it, but it seems like it could be useful. It might be a good idea to set the high and low an equal distance from your starting point. That way you would actually be fully hedged, until you start taking profits.
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

faure,

There must be more to it. If you pull up some of these 10Y histories, this would scare you to see the 5 year trends IN ONE DIRECTION. You say electric, why do you care about those ten year trends? I say, this is a carry strategy and YOU MUST.

All the baggage carried of the open trades regardless of today's profits must be mind boggling...all I can think of is how much would I have needed to use discretionary techniques and money management to increase the accelerations necessary to keep up with that long pool widening trend. Then I am so thankful for the dwstart. But he says only use 1Y ranges, I just don't get it.

Michael B.
More...

those trends actually appeal to me believe it or not since they often have more volatility.

the baggage on those open trades will be huge in terms of the number of pips BUT as your account balance (realised) and trade size on new trades keeps growing that baggage is significantly less in terms of account equity.

i use my discretion to a) make sure i'm always in the market on both sides and b) that my profit targets conform to market conditions.
 
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