Elite Trader's Gambler's Anonymous ETGA

Status
Not open for further replies.
es, i see the time increment concept has caught your interest. when do i enter my trades? only once a day at the end of the day (end of the u.s. session) - how's that for low labour costs! because if the market is going to move up/down that's usually when the market takes a break.

sympatico had something when he talked about discretion - i use it all the time! with regards to targets i use my discretion most of the time, my only guideline being that the longer i hold a profitable position the more money i make.

i'll give you an example of how i use my discretion. let's say i've sold into a strong uptrend. i then get a nice pullback after selling against the trend for a few days. on the day of the high i sold and now have a relatively small profit compared to the huge profit targets of the long trades. will i take some profit? absolutely! if it turns out to be a major high i will always have out of the money shorts that will take profit everyday it falls. if it rises after the pullback i've managed to make some money and keep my unrealised lower.

regarding your "traders helping traders" comment. i you had the holy grail would you share it on et? would it still work after you had shared it? at the end of the day it's you versus me and anybody else who puts their money on the line. such is the case in a zero sum game.

faure
 
faure,

I have re-read your posts in this Journal more times than I have fingers and you know what? I can't find one thing that I disagree with you about.

You know, right before Oanda pays interest (17:00 est) have you seen the little volatility rush? This is when I post to this Journal and go to the gym. I could easily put on the trade. Which pairs do you trade? All 15?



Regarding your example:

i'll give you an example of how i use my discretion. let's say i've sold into a strong uptrend. i then get a nice pullback after selling against the trend for a few days. on the day of the high I sold and now have a relatively small profit compared to the huge profit targets of the long trades. will i take some profit? absolutely! if it turns out to be a major high i will always have out of the money shorts that will take profit everyday it falls. if it rises after the pullback i've managed to make some money and keep my unrealised lower.

I am trying to visualize this. I just don't get it. You are explaining the discretionary acceleration that I so badly lack.

Like right now the EUR/USD is falling. So the inverse side is rising. It 17:00 est and I put on my trades after exiting my profits that show up in the sorted trade tab. What are you talking about? I only put on one trade on each long and short in that pair without targets and it doesn't matter which trades I take off that had profits, as I simply place one more on the long and short pair, regardless of profits (those profits have "time targets" just as much as the entries have "time increments")

Are you suggesting that on the rising side, place a bigger size? because I believe there is clear air under the EUR/USD? or....instead of trying to forecast, just realize that todays action yielded little profit and go heavy on the long side, because that is the prevailing trend?

Simpy put, I could use the size of the profit at the end of each day to determine the size of the other side? I think I might be getting close to understanding, perhaps not. You will notice I endeavor to alway try to systemize....and explain a discretionary model into a "non thinking routine".

Gawd, I'm stupid, faure, please be patient with me. I get an high grade for persistence and I have the rest of my life (I think I will need it).

If any of you can put this into "plain speak" for this Savant, please do.

Michael B.

P.S. I am assuming there are no targets and replacement trades with your method, faure?

 
Electric,

There are many high level traders that are toying with you, Electric. Mr. Tripack seems like a sensible reasonable man. Did you read his post? Try reading it with as many toes that you have...

Quit kissing As* too...these guy's will not spoonfeed you...

Wifey.
 
faure,

It just occured to me, do you use the Sim speed model? selling above your start and buying below? then the opposite on the inverse.....buying above your start and selling below?

Michael B.


Quote from faure:

es, i see the time increment concept has caught your interest. when do i enter my trades? only once a day at the end of the day (end of the u.s. session) - how's that for low labour costs! because if the market is going to move up/down that's usually when the market takes a break.

sympatico had something when he talked about discretion - i use it all the time! with regards to targets i use my discretion most of the time, my only guideline being that the longer i hold a profitable position the more money i make.

i'll give you an example of how i use my discretion. let's say i've sold into a strong uptrend. i then get a nice pullback after selling against the trend for a few days. on the day of the high i sold and now have a relatively small profit compared to the huge profit targets of the long trades. will i take some profit? absolutely! if it turns out to be a major high i will always have out of the money shorts that will take profit everyday it falls. if it rises after the pullback i've managed to make some money and keep my unrealised lower.

regarding your "traders helping traders" comment. i you had the holy grail would you share it on et? would it still work after you had shared it? at the end of the day it's you versus me and anybody else who puts their money on the line. such is the case in a zero sum game.

faure
More...
 
if the market goes up i sell. if it is up more the next day i sell again and so it continues, all the while taking profits on earlier longs, until the market drops. i then take profits on the short while simultaneously buying on the way down. then when it goes up again the cycle repeats itself.

that's the basis of it all but like i've said there more to it.

faure
 
Folks,

You see, there are three grid technologies:
  • The one in MT that SimSpeed introduced....enter Short and if it goes up from there continue short increments and when it drop below your first short entry go long as it drops. Imagine a start price in the middle of your chart and shorts entered above and longs entered below. There of course is what SimSpeed calls an Inverse Grid reversing this for the "perfect" hedge.
  • The one in Oanda's Forum that Mark Introduced.
    Mark simply uses an "anti-correlated" pair in one account. No sub accounts. He currently is trading the EUR/USD and the USD/CHF. He goes long in both always.
  • Sympatico's System. sigh, 15 pairs long... and then short on the inverse. No split of the Grid like Simspeed has, but the USD/CHF is still not activated. Also he implores discretionary tweaks/accelerations

Michael B.

P.S. faures system uses time....I do not know which of the above "Grid Technologies" he uses...also he has discretionary tweaks...

P.S.S. ElectricSavant, does not have a system but tried Marks system with Pivot Points. He continues to post to this Journal the "quietly trading" System #2....and will continue posting, as long as there are traders following and/or as long as there is ongoing research in System #1. As far as re-activating System #1 this will take some time...

P.S.S.S. In my opinion the dwstart is a notable way to enter your first trade (Now, if we could just get him to do the other fourteen pair :)).

P.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S. THE END


 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

Folks,

You see, there are three grid technologies:
  • The one in MT that SimSpeed introduced....enter Short and if it goes up from there continue short increments and when it drop below your first short entry go long as it drops. Imagine a start price in the middle of your chart and shorts entered above and longs entered below. There of course is what SimSpeed calls an Inverse Grid reversing this for the "perfect" hedge.
  • The one in Oanda's Forum that Mark Introduced.
    Mark simply uses an "anti-correlated" pair in one account. No sub accounts. He currently is trading the EUR/USD and the USD/CHF. He goes long in both always.
  • Sympatico's System. sigh, 15 pairs long... and then short on the inverse. No split of the Grid like Simspeed has, but the USD/CHF is still not activated. Also he implores discretionary tweaks/accelerations

Michael B.

P.S. faures system uses time....I do not know which of the above "Grid Technologies" he uses...also he has discretionary tweaks...

P.S.S. ElectricSavant, does not have a system but tried Marks system with Pivot Points. He continues to post to this Journal the "quietly trading" System #2....and will continue posting, as long as there are traders following and/or as long as there is ongoing research in System #1. As far as re-activating System #1 this will take some time...

P.S.S.S. In my opinion the dwstart is a notable way to enter your first trade (Now, if we could just get him to do the other fourteen pair :)).

P.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S. THE END
More...

ElectricSavant,

All you had to do is ask.
 

Attachments

Quote from TriPack:

Here is something I've been puzzling over, that hopefully someone here will be able to help me with. I'm demoing a 5% position size on 6 different currency pairs. I thought using a fixed % on each currency pair would keep the position sizes in relative parity with each other for hedging and overall account balancing (same amount risked / gained on each pair for an equal pip move) but I'm not so sure anymore.

Here is what is happening on a recent demo trade with a 5% default position size:

Buy GBP/USD: 875 units
Buy USD/CHF: 1610 units

In this case if both pairs have a 100 pip move, the GBP pair will achieve roughly half the gain or loss achieved with the CHF pair. whereas if I had used a standard like 1200 units and each pair had a 100 pip move, the gain or loss by each would be in better parity.

I guess using a standard % for default order size assumes that currencies that trade at a premium to the USD (in this case GBP) will tend to be symmetrically more volatile than currencies that trade at a discount to the USD (like CHF). Perhaps this is true but I'm not sure.
More...



I've been thinking about this some more and ran into a thread that had some good insights from acrary here:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=159224

Essentially the crux is that a system that trades based on a % of account equity for position sizes or for money management (stop loss / profit targets) is subject to drag. This is the case because the profits add up arithmetically, while the losses add up geometrically. Now in thinking about this acrary says that there is no way to gain a positive edge from the money management scheme. I think this statement is within the context of a system that will take or realize both losses and profits.

In the case with these systems the losses are not realized but the gains are realized, causing a slight positive boost from compounding. This slight advantage would be undone by realizing losses on a regular basis. The interesting thing is that this positive effect is most pronounced when either a higher % of the account is put at risk, or more frequent compounding is employed. Of course the negative effect would be most pronounced when taking losses if a higher % of the account were put at risk, or the loss sizes were larger (one single large loss as opposed several smaller losses of equivalent size)

So in that respect the original design of the system had some positives going for it in the way of compounding of profits as a way to offset growing unrealized losses.
 
Quote from TriPack:

I've been thinking about this some more and ran into a thread that had some good insights from acrary here:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=159224

Essentially the crux is that a system that trades based on a % of account equity for position sizes or for money management (stop loss / profit targets) is subject to drag. This is the case because the profits add up arithmetically, while the losses add up geometrically. Now in thinking about this acrary says that there is no way to gain a positive edge from the money management scheme. I think this statement is within the context of a system that will take or realize both losses and profits.

In the case with these systems the losses are not realized but the gains are realized, causing a slight positive boost from compounding. This slight advantage would be undone by realizing losses on a regular basis. The interesting thing is that this positive effect is most pronounced when either a higher % of the account is put at risk, or more frequent compounding is employed. Of course the negative effect would be most pronounced when taking losses if a higher % of the account were put at risk, or the loss sizes were larger (one single large loss as opposed several smaller losses of equivalent size)

So in that respect the original design of the system had some positives going for it in the way of compounding of profits as a way to offset growing unrealized losses.
More...


That is very interesting. Acrary really knows his stuff. There should be a way to impliment that in this strategy. Even though we don't have a realized loss, it might be better to trade with a set amount until our nav increases a certain percent, then increase our lot size a set amount.

Thanks for the link, I will have to think on that some more.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top