Elite Trader's Gambler's Anonymous ETGA

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I have not quit :)

The simple two ideas that :
  • To know the direction is not needed
  • The wider the pool gets the better the drawdown is contained.
Drives me and keeps me passionately interested. I just find that taking pauses sometimes helps. Anxious feelings and trading do not mix, unless your gambling and searching for that adrenalin rush.

Show me a low labor idea and I will run with it. I am still looking. I have the rest of my life.

The dwstart was simple, but a brilliant time saving's example.

I think the key is to enter using "time increments" and using static times of day on a manageable schedule without using targets or replacement trades other than the timestamp.

Michael B.

P.S. I am still willing to post hourly's of the fifteen instruments to discover the zones. I would need to coordinate the Forex calendar of reports and economic releases into it. You can understand this is a manual operation for me, and to commit to the project and post and update the spreadsheet here would need to be taken seriously. That dude faure, is a wise trader indeed, there is no way he will just post the times, we would have to discover this for ourselves. One way is to just get E-Signal and track the tick or do it my way...the hard way....by putting up the hourly's in a spreadsheet the old fashioned way.

Someone told me that this system in the other forums is purposely being downplayed to protect it. Someone even told me that I will not receive any help, as long as I have such a big mouth and post all that I know on ET. This is what I mean by Sad. Traders helping Traders is BullCrap! all those cliche's you read about trend breakouts and noise...you know all those old axioms....all bullcrap!
Quote from wdscott:

Oh my G-d, I can't believe you quit on system#1.
:confused: :confused: :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :
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Electric,

You are posting in this Journal System #2, which you claim you only spend 6 minutes a day on.

You draw out $191.00 a month for my Hummer you say (I have not seen my Hummer yet).

Why do you search for a high labor method to trade Forex when you are already diversified across three pairs in System #2?

I just don't get it. I follow the options side of our portfolio in the spreads on the QQQQ's. Why do you feel you need to diversify more?

Why don't you increase the capital in the Forex side of our portfolio on something you KNOW works? Like $200.00 a month. This monthly injection together with the daily injections should be enough to grow your portfolio and to "chase the current price around" with your average trade price injections.

Here is a pyramiding idea you once taught me (you have so many schemes, you have forgotten)...get a 5k revolving line of credit at Washington Mutual, and max it out, by putting the money into your Forex Cash and Carry account. Then draw out the 2% monthly payment from Cash and Carry and make a payment then max it out again to put it back in the Forex. Your Forex account would pyramid while you are making your monthly payment to WAMU, without even using our own money with a cost of 16 or 17% APR.

Wifey.

P.S. You would not believe the legal way Electric once did check kiting...until the banks figured it out 20 years ago. He did not do anything illegal though, as he had the money in the accounts, he just exploited their float. I will tell you that Electric has circulated millions, but he will never be a millionaire, as he jumps over hundred dollar bills, to pick up pennies.
 
firehorse, your calculations were very similar to mine

you see that huge drawdown you got in 2003?

it was worse in 2002

and what you didnt do is carry the drawdown into the following years, you reset everything to 0 at beginning of each year

recalculate your system from 2002 right through to 2004, you will see the unrealized just becomes vicious!!!

Not sure what conclusion you reached, but without a directional filter (which defeats the purpose of this system) I think this system is a slow motion train wreck - it could work great for 2 or 3 years before seriously damaging the account
 
jasonjm,

If your at the bottom of the pool or the top of the pool, one illustration (from the master) was to use tighter increments on one side. Look at the recent posts over at Oanda...

Now, without knowing direction would this be an example of Support & Resistance anticipation?

Michael B.

P.S. I think firehorse wants a reset to avoid the 10 year trends. He wants to create a 1 year system to make income from and after getting flat each year nets him plus after all accounting.




Quote from jasonjm:

firehorse, your calculations were very similar to mine

you see that huge drawdown you got in 2003?

it was worse in 2002

and what you didnt do is carry the drawdown into the following years, you reset everything to 0 at beginning of each year

recalculate your system from 2002 right through to 2004, you will see the unrealized just becomes vicious!!!

Not sure what conclusion you reached, but without a directional filter (which defeats the purpose of this system) I think this system is a slow motion train wreck - it could work great for 2 or 3 years before seriously damaging the account
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Hi,
Quote from jasonjm:
firehorse, your calculations were very similar to mine
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I think that's pretty cool :cool:
Two sets of data, two different ways of modelling the same principle and we get a similar answer :D

Quote from jasonjm:

you see that huge drawdown you got in 2003?

it was worse in 2002
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Thanks for that. I'll be checking it out :)

Quote from jasonjm:

and what you didnt do is carry the drawdown into the following years, you reset everything to 0 at beginning of each year

recalculate your system from 2002 right through to 2004, you will see the unrealized just becomes vicious!!!
More...
Will do :)

Quote from jasonjm:

Not sure what conclusion you reached, but without a directional filter (which defeats the purpose of this system) I think this system is a slow motion train wreck - it could work great for 2 or 3 years before seriously damaging the account
More...
The only conclusion I can reach is trading one currency for one year and expecting a profit out of it is not a good idea.

Sympatico started mid 2004 and has been steadily making 1% / day on multiple currencies which is a target I would like to aim for but note that he is doing some things discretionary which could be an advantage over a completely mechanical system.

Being able to make money regardless of the market direction is a seductive idea and is worthy of more research.

Sympatico has stated that the 'speed' of movement of the price is 'critical' and has just recently stated that TP is linked to volatility, a factor not in either of our backtesting results.

There are a few avenues of research to explore.

Quote from ElectricSavant:

P.S. I think firehorse wants a reset to avoid the 10 year trends. He wants to create a 1 year system to make income from and after getting flat each year nets him plus after all accounting.
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Nothing so fancy actually :D On Amibroker, if you have 5 years of data and you test 1 day of data, it will take the length of time for analysing all the 5 years data , so I've set up databases with just 1 year of data to speed up testing as I wanted a quick proof of concept and model to start with and a year is a convenient unit of time.

Now I've hopefully ironed out the fundamental errors, when I have time, I can use the same model to explore longer histories and other ideas.

Best regards
Alan
 
Wouldn't it be nice if the accelerations were enough, to realize periodic resets...(that would solve the 10Y trend drifts!)

I hope you guys come up with something that is not labor intensive..I am stuck today and I can't take anymore Vitamin B12..Wifey won't let me!

Michael B.
 
ElectricSavant,

It only works with pairs that have a pip value of 0.0001. I didn't spend enough time to make it work for others. If any one is really interested in using for more I will see what I can do.

As far as going forward with "Time Increments", I think that is a great idea. The dwstart will just fill your pool right at the start (at a discounted price), after that just use what ever system you want to take profit and fill in the holes.

Quote from ElectricSavant:

dw,

Would your spreadsheet work for any pair? or does it assume anything that would be specific to the EUR/USD?

And what would be you opinion using the dw start to find balance then going forward with "Time Increments" ?

Then assuming you like "Time Increments", would you recommend that I post a spreadsheet here tracking the hourly range of each of the 14 instruments, to discover when to lengthen and shorten the time increments?

Michael B.
More...
 
Here is something I've been puzzling over, that hopefully someone here will be able to help me with. I'm demoing a 5% position size on 6 different currency pairs. I thought using a fixed % on each currency pair would keep the position sizes in relative parity with each other for hedging and overall account balancing (same amount risked / gained on each pair for an equal pip move) but I'm not so sure anymore.

Here is what is happening on a recent demo trade with a 5% default position size:

Buy GBP/USD: 875 units
Buy USD/CHF: 1610 units

In this case if both pairs have a 100 pip move, the GBP pair will achieve roughly half the gain or loss achieved with the CHF pair. whereas if I had used a standard like 1200 units and each pair had a 100 pip move, the gain or loss by each would be in better parity.

I guess using a standard % for default order size assumes that currencies that trade at a premium to the USD (in this case GBP) will tend to be symmetrically more volatile than currencies that trade at a discount to the USD (like CHF). Perhaps this is true but I'm not sure.
 
Today's Trades (Monday)

Increased positions to increase yield. The spreadsheet limit orders remain valid.

These adjustments that are additional to the strategy to get the minumum yield up are complete, and maintaining the 53,000 position value will be a condition. If any of these positions give the opportunity to trade and cancel out losing positions, then the positions must be re-entered after the plus/minus trade adjustments take place to bring up the minumum to 53000.

Increment spacing (see spreadsheet)
AUD/JPY 83.93 74.21 0.61
GBP/CHF 2.3393 2.1517 0.0117
EUR/HUF 257.17 241.23 1.00

There are limit orders waiting to average in at:
The lowest entry on the AUD/JPY long of 81.17-0.61=80.56
The lowest entry on the GBP/CHF long of 2.2482-0.117=2.2365
The highest entry on the EUR/HUF short of 252.78+1.00=253.78

Michael B.
 

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