I thought it was from Bloomberg too. But you do have a history of saying day trading doesn't work. That's a fact.
Elite Day Trader Paul Phillips Bruised By Market
- Thread starter marketsurfer
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I thought it was from Bloomberg too. But you do have a history of saying day trading doesn't work. That's a fact.
That was my mistake about Bloomberg.
Day trading is much more difficult that most believe it to be-- however, I have day traded successfully and would NEVER say it doesn't work.
I have and would say it isn't the ideal way to make money in the market but never have I said it doesn't work, that would just be stupid.
surf
Day trading expectancy is negative. According to new book by Michael Harris (Fooled by Technical Analysis) only lucky ones or edge holders make money if they do not stay for long in the market. This is backed by interesting analysis showing the impact of commissions and spreads on profits in the long-term.
Clearly technical analysis ( as defined and commonly used) has proven itself to be valueless over the last decade.
However, day trading- by definition can work by clever folks implementing unique ideas/ strategies. --- HFT is just one example of minds over markets.
Yeah, no question that taxes , commissions and fees make the game one of extreme negative expectancy -- but it is still beatable by those with the brains or outside the box thinking.
With that said, anything based on charts has already been done and its almost guaranteed to fail.
surf
However, day trading- by definition can work by clever folks implementing unique ideas/ strategies. --- HFT is just one example of minds over markets.
Yeah, no question that taxes , commissions and fees make the game one of extreme negative expectancy -- but it is still beatable by those with the brains or outside the box thinking.
With that said, anything based on charts has already been done and its almost guaranteed to fail.
surf
Day trading is actually the easiest type of trading...if...and this is a big if.....one has excellent discipline/risk management. The problem is a lot of people who attempt day trading have no discipline. That does them in. You also must be able to keep your emotions in control. Otherwise you are history. A lot of the failed day traders I have seen have lost their shit and gone on tilt because they couldn't keep it together upstairs.
The beauty of day trading is you can control losses. Traders who have positions days/overnight have that luxury taken away from them. They also have the luxury of making a huge score IF they are on the right side of an overnight gap. I held positions/swing traded for years. Loved it. But what I don't miss is having my ability to control losses thrown out the window. I still can remember my worst day ever in 20 years was in the late 90's. I was long a ton of tech shares into the close. Had a very large positive mark going into the close. Our whole desk was heading out for our normal Thursday after the close drinking session. As we were leaving Hewlett Packard warned about "soft sales". Stock closed at 83. I looked on instinet and it was offered at 71. I only had about 17 other tech stocks long. Brutal. Everyone gapped down the next morning. Gave back a good part of my year that day.
A few months later I was short a slew of tech stocks again. Similar set up on the short side. This time INTC had it's first ever earnings miss pre announcement. It had closed at 160. It was trading 110 in after hours. Made a ton the next day. So I have been on both sides of the gap.
At least these days if you are trading futures you have the ability to get out overnight if things are going south vs your position, so you can control it somewhat. Although if you leave stops in overnight you run the risk of horrible slippage associated with low volume.
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Every trader deals with the same (or very similar) tax issues. That's irrelevant here.
Commissions, yes, if someone does a ton of day trades it can be a problem. For my trading commissions come out to about 5% of Profits each month. It's a non issue. I guess it depends on one's definition of day trading. I think you and other people who knock it need to decipher between day trading and scalping. Two different animals.
True
Well yeah--- I don't disagree. Even altucher says he knows several succesful day traders.
But gaps can happen intra day also-- flash crash etc. but u are right, they are far more common overnight.
surf
I agree. ...Investing and Swing Trading...is kind of...basically gambling to me.
I personally find it easier ...to just predict the broader market move for the day ahead before the market opens.
I agree. ...Investing and Swing Trading...is kind of...basically gambling to me.
I personally find it easier ...to just predict the broader market move for the day ahead before the market opens.
You're able to consistently, as a career, predict intra-day swings in the market prior to the market's open? You're the most amazing day trader I've ever heard of.