Elite Day Trader Paul Phillips Bruised By Market

[lawrence-lugar]

You're able to consistently, as a career, predict intra-day swings in the market prior to the market's open? You're the most amazing day trader I've ever heard of.

I never said "consistently"...and I also never said "intra-day swings".
But more or less...based on the pre-market analysis ops:...I kind of know how the broader market will behave during the day.
and if not, I'm atleast better prepared to ride the wave(s)...I know the support and resistance levels I have in mind.

 

[Q3D]

I never said "consistently"...and I also never said "intra-day swings".
But more or less...based on the pre-market analysis ops:...I kind of know how the broader market will behave during the day.
and if not, I'm atleast better prepared to ride the wave(s)...I know the support and resistance levels I have in mind.

Ok, well, a good portion of the previous discussion was about how day trading is more difficult now, attrition is increasing, lower-time-frames have more fake-outs now, even daily candlesticks can be misleading on the ES or commodities, etc, so what you're suggesting you can do with your methodology and intuition contradicts that.

 

[EPrado]

I agree. ...Investing and Swing Trading...is kind of...basically gambling to me.
I personally find it easier ...to just predict the broader market move for the day ahead before the market opens.

I know guys who still overnight and do very well. It definitely has a bit more of a gambling mentality. I think when swing trading you REALLY have to pay attention to position sizing. I also like to come into the session each day with a clear head. When I overnighted a lot of times I was dealt a plate of shit or a plate of gold an hour before the opening. Can have a big effect on what you do the rest of the day.

 

[i960]

The more day traders, retail traders, and volatility the better. This is not a bad thing at all - that is, if you want to actually make money.

 

[Q3D]

The more day traders, retail traders, and volatility the better. This is not a bad thing at all - that is, if you want to actually make money.

What if the majority of the volatility is caused by high-speed computer trading, where their trading is not based off of the pivot levels, trendlines, and candlestick bars day traders are looking at? Is that a sort of market that has a positive correlation with increased profits for day traders in general? I think not.

 

[i960]

What if the majority of the volatility is caused by high-speed computer trading, where their trading is not based off of the pivot levels, trendlines, and candlestick bars day traders are looking at? Is that a sort of market that has a positive correlation with increased profits for day traders in general? I think not.

Correct such a thing would be considered "toxic volatility." However your example is largely hypothetical as markets have presently not lost their mind.

 

[Q3D]

Correct such a thing would be considered "toxic volatility." However your example is largely hypothetical as markets have presently not lost their mind.

Are you suggesting intraday price action at the 15 minute level and lower in futures and stocks has not been altered by the high-speed computer trading revolution of the past decade?

 

[i960]

Are you suggesting intraday price action at the 15 minute level and lower in futures and stocks has not been altered by the high-speed computer trading revolution of the past decade?

Nope I'm not suggesting that one but. But present volatility is not yet too toxic for trading.

What if I told you there is a place between black and white? That its actually a gradated scale?

 

[Q3D]

Nope I'm not suggesting that one but. But present volatility is not yet too toxic for trading.

What if I told you there is a place between black and white? That its actually a gradated scale?

It sounds like you share my belief that AI will render day traders obsolete soon, with visual pattern recognition becoming possible via algorithms, aside from neutrino-based HFT.

Aside from institutional quants and the few prop traders using DOMs it seems like the only ones profiting even slightly from the current computer-based volatility are old-timers who learned to day trade (and built their fortunes) when the markets were much more forgiving and trade-able 10-30 years ago. The future is very grim for day traders.

 

[Mtrader]

There u go again Prado. I don't take shots at day traders---- Why do u make this stuff up?

surf

Yes you do. Eprado is right.