Election 2024 Foreplay

Tony Stark said:
Maybe you're right.Aggregate national polling always gets the overall popular vote winner right so I don't pay attention to the MOE.
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To the extent it’s not so close to the results of the elections, yes, it has been a good signal. When the polling is this close, it’s historical error is much bigger comparatively.
 
gwb-trading said:
Trump and Biden in dead heat in NC, new poll says. Could RFK Jr. play spoiler?
https://www.wral.com/story/trump-an...poll-says-could-rfk-jr-play-spoiler/21373319/
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This is from the survey
Democrats back Biden (95 - 2 percent), while Republicans (94 - 3 percent) and independents (49 - 41 percent) back Trump.

They are one percent different from their own party but Trump is 8 pts ahead from independents......How can they be tied

I think the sample group is skewed toward Democrats
 
Mercor said:
This is from the survey
Democrats back Biden (95 - 2 percent), while Republicans (94 - 3 percent) and independents (49 - 41 percent) back Trump.

They are one percent different from their own party but Trump is 8 pts ahead from independents......How can they be tied

I think the sample group is skewed toward Democrats
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Here we go again… lol
 
Mercor said:
Did you do the math....Please show me how they got to a tie
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I took math in school. Specifically, I took statistics in college. I understand weighting of a sample population in a survey. What is subjective is the pollsters turnout models.

What I will say is that many polls are showing some kooky findings under the hood. For example, some polls are showing an inversion of expected candidate support by age group.
 
UsualName said:
I took math in school. .
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Who cares? Get with the times. Math no longer matters.... our phones do it all for us.

Now.... Had you nailed those transgender sociology courses sister---> you'd have been on your way to bigger and better things.
 
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