Election 2024 Foreplay

vanzandt said:
Anonymous British businessman bets $5 million on Trump victory

The Sun reports that the individual in question is an unnamed British former-banker, based overseas. He is said to have placed the bet with a private bookmaker in Curacao in the Caribbean, with a friend telling the news outlet that he made the decision after consulting with ‘Trump camp insiders’.
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And we all know that bankers are never wrong.
 


Trump +4

Biden -17

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769546823893426230



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UsualName said:
Yes, polling seems very sticky right now. Albeit very whacky at the same time. Lots of head scratching stuff showing up with Trump leading 18-29 year olds in some states and Biden leading +65. In truth Trump’s ~1.8 lead is really like +2.5 adjusting for electoral college bias. Not much but very sticky.

I really think we are in a whole new electorate or the polls are completely shot. It’s hard to tell in real time when there are major shifts showing up that have no comparison in the last 60 years.

What I will say is I think team Biden relying on the polling to make “democracy” a central message feels like a major mistake. This is an issue that keeps showing up polls but doesn’t seem to have an identifiable cohort to match it to.

We will see but either the polling is muddy or the electorate are in a silent majority mode and it’s hard to tell which side that majority is on.
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New Civiqs National poll showing the above…

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