Election 2024 Foreplay

2024 Election Odds: The Smarkets betting exchange in the United Kingdom favors Trump. Here are the odds of his becoming the U.S. President in 2024:
 
Good stuff!

Biden-Trump Gaffe Tracker: Trump Incorrectly Brings Up Obama—Again
Sara Dorn
Forbes Staff
Politics
Zachary Folk
Forbes Staff
I cover breaking news.
Mar 17, 2024,05:12pm EDT

Trump (March 16): At a rally in Dayton, Ohio, Trump again mistakenly referred to former President Barack Obama, this time possibly confusing himself with Obama, though it remains unclear what he might have meant: “Joe Biden won against Barack Hussein Obama, has anyone ever heard of him?” Trump asked the crowd, before adding, “every swing state, Biden beat Obama but in every other state, he got killed.”


Trump (March 9): At a speech in Rome, Georgia, Trump claimed “the polls are rigged” while discussing his appeal to suburban housewives, before abruptly backtracking and saying “disregard that last statement, I love the polls so much.”


Biden (State of the Union speech, March 7): the president misidentified Laken Riley, the student murdered on the University of Georgia campus, calling her “Lanken,” while holding up a pin with her name on it.


Biden (State of the Union speech, March 7): the president briefly said the 2021 Capitol riot took place on July 6, before correcting himself and saying “January 6.”

Biden (State of the Union speech, March 7): after speaking about capping prescription drug prices, Biden made an off-the-cuff remark and invited Congress to fly with him and see lower prices for their medications in “Toronto, Berlin, Moscow—I mean, excuse me—well, even Moscow, probably.”

Trump (March 2): Trump seemed to confuse former President Barack Obama with President Joe Biden—alleging during a rally in Virginia Putin has “so little respect for Obama that he’s starting to throw around the nuclear word,” marking at least the eighth time in recent months it’s happened.

Trump (Feb. 24): In a speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference, Trump appeared to endorse Biden, telling the audience he agrees with Russian President Vladimir Putin in preferringBiden over Trump.

Trump (Feb. 24): In the same CPAC speech, Trump appeared to forget the name of his wife, Melania Trump, responding to loud applause in the crowd by saying “Mercedes, that’s pretty good!”—though his campaign claimed it was a reference to Mercedes Schlapp, a political commentator and the wife of American Conservative Union (CPAC organizer) chair Matt Schlapp, who he mentioned later in the speech…”


https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarado...-trump-incorrectly-brings-up-obama-again/amp/
 
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Yes, polling seems very sticky right now. Albeit very whacky at the same time. Lots of head scratching stuff showing up with Trump leading 18-29 year olds in some states and Biden leading +65. In truth Trump’s ~1.8 lead is really like +2.5 adjusting for electoral college bias. Not much but very sticky.

I really think we are in a whole new electorate or the polls are completely shot. It’s hard to tell in real time when there are major shifts showing up that have no comparison in the last 60 years.

What I will say is I think team Biden relying on the polling to make “democracy” a central message feels like a major mistake. This is an issue that keeps showing up polls but doesn’t seem to have an identifiable cohort to match it to.

We will see but either the polling is muddy or the electorate are in a silent majority mode and it’s hard to tell which side that majority is on.


God damn boy you are a fucking moron.This is one of the easiest elections ever to understand and predict yet you are still fucking clueless:confused:
 
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In truth Trump’s ~1.8 lead is really like +2.5 adjusting for electoral college bias. Not much but very sticky.

So you've gone from saying the electoral college bias is 5 million votes for the republican to 0.7, damn boy you're a fucking idiot.

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In truth Trump’s ~1.8 lead is really like +2.5 adjusting for electoral college bias. Not much but very sticky.


Trumps lead is a lot bigger than that with the real electoral college bias for the republican being 3-5 points and the 3-5 points West/Stein will get.

Polling also usually has the democrats margin higher than it actually is


2020 had Biden + 7.2 but he won by 4.5


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2016 had Hillary +3.2 but she won the popular vote by 2.1


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Yes, polling seems very sticky right now. Albeit very whacky at the same time. Lots of head scratching stuff showing up with Trump leading 18-29 year olds in some states and Biden leading +65. In truth Trump’s ~1.8 lead is really like +2.5 adjusting for electoral college bias. Not much but very sticky.

I really think we are in a whole new electorate or the polls are completely shot. It’s hard to tell in real time when there are major shifts showing up that have no comparison in the last 60 years.

What I will say is I think team Biden relying on the polling to make “democracy” a central message feels like a major mistake. This is an issue that keeps showing up polls but doesn’t seem to have an identifiable cohort to match it to.

We will see but either the polling is muddy or the electorate are in a silent majority mode and it’s hard to tell which side that majority is on.


You've always been an idiot at least try to be a consistent idiot.You previously said Biden needs to be at 50% to win now you say its a nail biter when hes at 38%,idiot :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:


"Trump can win with like a 46% approval rating but a democrat can’t without 50%."-UsualName




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I really think we are in a whole new electorate or the polls are completely shot.

Polling is really good when Biden has the lead.

Its a whole new electorate or the polls are completely shot when Biden does not have the lead :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:


"The polling was and is pretty good"-UsualName when Biden has the lead

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