Election 2024 Foreplay

[TreeFrogTrader]

Ok.... but doesn't the DNC convention (and I'm way out of my sphere here).... but don't they have the ability to chose whoever they want if Joe bails out?

Yes, they do but what they do depends on how much time they have until the election.

If Joe dropped out within the next month, they might just decide to open up an informal primary and tell candidates that they should run campaigns if they want for the next few months and that delegates from all the states can vote at the convention.

But if he drops out late, after the convention, and, for example, after he is the nominee then it gets more complicated. The DNC would have to figure out who is interested and how the freed-up delegates would regroup. etc, etc. Just sayin if he dropped out Lyndon Johnson style and timing they could just hold a basic rejiggered primary and see who wants to run. Later than that, more complicated.

 

[vanzandt]

Yes, they do but what they do depends on how much time they have until the election.

If Joe dropped out within the next month, they might just decide to open up an informal primary and tell candidates that they should run campaigns if they want for the next few months and that delegates from all the states can vote at the convention.

But if he drops out late, after the convention, and, for example, after he is the nominee then it gets more complicated. The DNC would have to figure out who is interested and how the freed-up delegates would regroup. etc, etc. Just sayin if he dropped out Lyndon Johnson style and timing they could just hold a basic rejiggered primary and see who wants to run. Later than that, more complicated.

I've said this before... and ya'll can slam me if you want... whatever, like I care. But everything I know about politics, I've learned at ET.
*I only ask these questions because I have to attempt to figure out sector rotations before they happen.

 

[vanzandt]

Where's @UsualName?

--->?
Who's the candidate?
We know you're here.
You always are.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Lol. Yes, we certainly live in interesting times. I know everyone thinks Gavin is out because he gave the illegals medical benefits... but maybe him?

The other somewhat unmentionable thing (unmentionable in the lefty media anyway) is that we are not talking about just the matter of Joe dropping out of the election. His viability to finish the current term is at risk. We basically have a Russet potato as leader of the Free World and more people are willing to acknowledge that.

I bring that up because if Biden left or was 25th-ed out then Kamala would take over. In which case they would probably just accept her as the presumed nominee for the next election, just as they did for Joe. Not saying there are not problems that go with that. Just saying what they would probably do. So that would nix any look-see at Newsom, Whitmore, Michelle, etc.

Joe Biden, the man walking around with the nuclear football. Let us pray. And if you are in Taiwan you should be praying. Great time for Xi to make his move. And yes, Xi has domestic economic problems but every dictator has always dealt with domestic problems by getting an external war going to consolidate the home front.

 

[vanzandt]

The other somewhat unmentionable thing (unmentionable in the lefty media anyway) is that we are not talking about just the matter of Joe dropping out of the election. His viability to finish the current term is at risk. We basically have a Russet potato as leader of the Free World and more people are willing to acknowledge that.

I bring that up because if Biden left or was 25th-ed out then Kamala would take over. In which case they would probably just accept her as the presumed nominee as a sitting president. Not saying there are not problems that go with that. Just saying what they would probably do. So that would nix any look-see at Newsom, Whitmore, Michelle, etc.

Tree... I gotta think, there is no way Joe doesn't serve out his term. If that were not to happen... Rumsfeld will be riding one of the the 4 horses of the apocalypse.
To quote you--- "interesting times" indeed.

 

[vanzandt]

every dictator has always dealt with domestic problems by getting an external war going to consolidate the home front.

Funny you bring that up. It has crossed my mind. War pulled the U.S. out of the Depression. Not always an apples to apples comparison... but history likes to rhyme.

 

[vanzandt]

Funny you bring that up. It has crossed my mind. War pulled the U.S. out of the Depression. Not always an apples to apples comparison... but history likes to rhyme.

That said, I still don't think China will make a move on Taiwan any time soon. It just wouldn't be a smart move from where they currently sit. If that is in fact Xi's goal before he dies, well, I think he'll wait. He's got a few more years left.

This market bottom on China.... one can play an etf... or one can pick a stock... but either way... the China markets are gonna spike north very soon.
~jmho

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Tree... I gotta think, there is no way Joe doesn't serve out his term. If that were not to happen... Rumsfeld will be riding one of the the 4 horses of the apocalypse.
To quote you--- "interesting times" indeed.

I hear ya.

But this is a guy who has had two cerebral strokes.

Plenty of scenarios that should be planned for are not necessarily probable - but if the powers that be in the Beltway are not doing succession planning for him then they are not serving the country. You know, the Secretary of Defense can be fine one day and then over at Walter Reed the next. I hope we don't go into some blackout period not knowing whether Joe is functional not for weeks if something does happen. So far he fits a high risk profile and that is not good if you are the leader of the free world.

The only good news out of all of this is that this scenario with the report being released on him is a direct result of the Karma Car paying the dems a little visit. And I am all for that. They self-stimulated on all the visuals and theatrics related to the raid on Maralargo. Man, that made their day and month. But as we will recall, that situation directly led to the inquiry into whether Biden also "had issues." YO DEMS, HOWZ THAT WORKIN' OUT FOR YA TODAY?

The irony is that that situation drove Trump's poll numbers highers. DEMS DO YOU THINK THIS WILL DRIVE BIDEN'S NUMBERS HIGHER.

Idiots.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

That said, I still don't think China will make a move on Taiwan any time soon.
~jmho

The near term is not good to move on Taiwan even though Biden is in office. There is too big a risk that things will get messy and then Trump will be elected right in the middle of it. They don't want that. They would prefer to see Biden or Kamala elected and know that they have years of weakness to play with, and gobble up south sea islands for sport.

I do get that China has big economic problems and that might lead one to think they would not touch Taiwan, except there is the argument that if the economy keeps tanking that the only way Xi can redeem himself is to deliver up Taiwan. The Party will overlook everything for that.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Y'all can see how this current mess with Joe is being handled in a way that gives him a get-out-of-jail free card on all his other crooked dealings.

He lied through his arse about his crooked connections and dealings with the Chinese, the Ukrainians, Hunter's business partners, his brother Jim and his sister, etc, etc.

But oh no, that was just Old Joe who could not remember all of that. He wasn't lying.

Two tier system. What the special prosecutor meant to say is that he could not get a conviction with a jury made up of either dc or delaware dems. The fact that a defendant has limitations is not an automatic reason for not filing charges. That can become the basis for a plea agreement or it is a factor that the court can take into consideration at sentencing.

No one was looking or expecting Biden to be hung from a tree, but they were looking for accountability. Instead he comes out and says that the staff did it and then took a victory lap by saying that that the prosecutor found no basis for charging him, which is another flat-out fucking lie. The prosecutor said Joe's actions were "willful" and that classified documents of the highest level were there. He only said that joe was too far gone in the head to prosecute.