Election 2024 Foreplay

[gwb-trading]

Meh. NYC is safer than virtually all of the cities in Florida. He might want to tone that down before people start holding him accountable for actually being the governor of Florida rather Trump’s leading opponent.

Even Trump's camp is pointing out that Florida is a violent hell-hole under DeSantis.

Out-of-control Spring Break videos prompt Trump supporters to paint DeSantis’ Florida as lawless, ungovernable
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...s-lawless-ungovernable/ar-AA18RikI?li=BBnb7Kz

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Oh, we know you’re here for DeSantis. There’s not a dimes worth of difference between Trump and DeSantis. If truth be told, it’s Trump that has the bigger upside in the electorate because he grabs the low education crowd like no other republican.

Youngkin is probably the strongest Republican on the bench but his credentials are weak at this point and he just doesn’t have a mastery of political subject matter yet. He would be a great VP pick too but not for the likes of DeSantis (whom is much to short to have Youngkin as his VP) or Trump.

Got your Alvin Bragg tee shirt on today, bro?

Another one of your guys in action.

 

[UsualName]

Even Trump's camp is pointing out that Florida is a violent hell-hole under DeSantis.

Out-of-control Spring Break videos prompt Trump supporters to paint DeSantis’ Florida as lawless, ungovernable
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...s-lawless-ungovernable/ar-AA18RikI?li=BBnb7Kz

It’s always the same thing, republicans attack something then lo and behold they have the same problem if not worse.

Florida is a very vibrant state and ironically it’s the older generation that have been bringing the energy to florida but it is no shangrala. For example, you really don’t want to leave the Disney Universal areas in Orlando. Miami isn’t safe for pedestrians and Jacksonville has an active gang war going on.

 

[UsualName]

Tsk tsk… look at what sidelining yourself while Trump stays in the news cycle does… you have to get in the arena if you want to win.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638548019321745409

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Tsk tsk… look at what sidelining yourself while Trump stays in the news cycle does… you have to get in the arena if you want to win.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638548019321745409

It remains to be seen whether Trump "staying in the news cycle" for various reasons for the next 18 months will help or hurt him.

Meanwhile, where a person is in the race at this stage of the election cycle means EL ZIPPO, and it can even be argued that it is a curse to be the frontrunner at this stage.

MORE TO COME.

Of course your buddy Alvin Bragg is out there turning Trump into a martyr right as we speak and that gives Trump a little lift so I will give you that. Bragg is currently stuck on stupid and going in circles trying to figure out what to do with his little stunt now. Same with your other buddy, Merrick Garland, he is not anxious to file charges on that little Mar-A-Largo scam either, believe me. Another stunt. He passed the hot potato to a special counsel to buy some time and not have to take responsibility for his own little stunt. Let someone else handle it and figure out how the hell to prosecute it.

 

[gwb-trading]

Of course your buddy Alvin Bragg is out there turning Trump into a martyr right as we speak and that gives Trump a little lift so I will give you that. Bragg is currently stuck on stupid and going in circles trying to figure out what to do with his little stunt now.

A martyr? Trump can't even get more than 5 people to show up at his NYC protest. At this point only his totally demented MAGA clowns will be rev'ed up by the indictment. 70% of America finds to allegations in the indictment to be spot on.

Large majority in new poll says Trump hush-money allegations are believable
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brie...-trump-hush-money-allegations-are-believable/

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

A martyr? Trump can't even get more than 5 people to show up at his NYC protest. At this point only his totally demented MAGA clowns will be rev'ed up by the indictment. 70% of America finds to allegations in the indictment to be spot on.

Large majority in new poll says Trump hush-money allegations are believable
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brie...-trump-hush-money-allegations-are-believable/

Well, keep in mind that I have repeatedly said to UT that in order to buy into the idea that Trump can take the nomination, I need to see two things: 1) no empty chairs at rallies or such as at the CPAC gathering, 2) Fox News doing full advocacy as they done for him before.

And when and if I see that, I will adjust my view. Right now, I do not see it.

It is easy for people to answer a question in a poll. But going somewhere and sitting there and getting juiced up is another matter.

Now, an astute person could argue that Joe ran from his basement and never got anyone excited anywhere in his campaign. But he had Jim Clyburn to make some things happen that would not have otherwise happened. If Trump has someone like that...well. it would be a different world wouldn't it. Also Trump fired up those who wanted to vote against him, which benefited Biden. Not sure how that factor helps him.

Anyway. Show me the rallies and I will watch the dynamics more, and change or not change my view as needed. Except Fox only show clips of Trump events now, and not the full rally. So that limits the ability to assess the rally dynamics considerably.

We shall see. As I have said twice before, Usual Tard's points have merit. But I have to see what I gotta see too. Plus I have to see some donors leaning in his direction. So far they are leaning away. But when and if that factor changes, I will re-assess. Don't see it yet.

Any republican entering the race against Trump needs to have a plan to drop out too. Otherwise, Usual Tard's point about dilution of the vote comes into play. They can get in. But they need to have an exit plan.

It can be argued that rallies do not count because that they hard-core MAGA. Not necessarily so. Even a slight weakening amongst the hard-core MAGA means that there is even more in the marginal and independent supporters.

 

[UsualName]

Well, keep in mind that I have repeatedly said to UT that in order to buy into the idea that Trump can take the nomination, I need to see two things: 1) no empty chairs at rallies or such as at the CPAC gathering, 2) Fox News doing full advocacy as they done for him before.

And when and if I see that, I will adjust my view. Right now, I do not see it.

It is easy for people to answer a question in a poll. But going somewhere and sitting there and getting juiced up is another matter.

Now, an astute person could argue that Joe ran from his basement and never got anyone excited anywhere in his campaign. But he had Jim Clyburn to make some things happen that would not have otherwise happened. If Trump has someone like that...well. it would be a different world wouldn't it. Also Trump fired up those who wanted to vote against him, which benefited Biden. Not sure how that factor helps him.

Anyway. Show me the rallies and I will watch the dynamics more, and change or not change my view as needed. Except Fox only show clips of Trump events now, and not the full rally. So that limits the ability to assess the rally dynamics considerably.

We shall see. As I have said twice before, Usual Tard's points have merit. But I have to see what I gotta see too. Plus I have to see some donors leaning in his direction. So far they are leaning away. But when and if that factor changes, I will re-assess. Don't see it yet.

Any republican entering the race against Trump needs to have a plan to drop out too. Otherwise, Usual Tard's point about dilution of the vote comes into play. They can get in. But they need to have an exit plan.

It can be argued that rallies do not count because that they hard-core MAGA. Not necessarily so. Even a slight weakening amongst the hard-core MAGA means that there is even more in the marginal and independent supporters.

For the record, Trump had empty seats at his rallies during his first nomination run. Will Fox News show the empty seats this go around is another question.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

For the record, Trump had empty seats at his rallies during his first nomination run. Will Fox News show the empty seats this go around is another question.

Also for the record, he a lot of extremely full seats over and into overflow areas outside also, in many instances. Are we seeing that now. Also, are we even seeing rallies. Other than a couple here and there? He has been announced for quite a while now. Where is his campaign actually happening?

Usual Tard, stop being anal. Just take the overall point that his rallies and interactions need to show that the same level of fire as before or it becomes a factor.

Similarly, you will be able to show Trump being on Fox often- along with the other candidates. But that does not negate the point that Trump is not and will not be receiving the same level of support from them as before.

Also, just to be anal back atcha, there will be fewer empty chairs as we go forward because the campaign will start putting out fewer, so I am saying I need to see the same fiery crowd at the same size. Not necessarily just empty chairs, duh. Biden had some events where he had no empty chairs because they only put out twenty and his staff filled them.

 

[UsualName]

Also for the record, he a lot of extremely full seats over and into overflow areas outside also, in many instances. Are we seeing that now. Also, are we even seeing rallies. Other than a couple here and there? He has been announced for quite a while now. Where is his campaign actually happening?

Usual Tard, stop being anal. Just take the overall point that his rallies and interactions need to show that the same level of fire as before or it becomes a factor.

Similarly, you will be able to show Trump being on Fox often- along with the other candidates. But that does not negate the point that Trump is not and will not be receiving the same level of support from them as before.

Trump is going have his next rally in Waco, Texas on Saturday. Right in the areas I would expect him to go to get the ball rolling. Waco is a great choice because there is a lot of anti government energy from the whole Davidian thing out there. The circus is coming to town.

I expect he will roll through low education white areas as he gets his feet under him.