Election 2024 Foreplay

[TreeFrogTrader]

Trump is going have his next rally in Waco, Texas on Saturday. Right in the areas I would expect him to go to get the ball rolling. Waco is a great choice because there is a lot of anti government energy from the whole Davidian thing out there. The circus is coming to town.

I expect he will roll through low education white areas as he gets his feet under him.

And as discussed ad nauseum, that is fine and dandy and I expect you to post a link showing that he had a great crowd, because he probably will. He can do the hand-picked, hard-core MAGA areas to kick start it and it will go great. The question is how does it look elsewhere when "elsewhere" comes.

Gavin Newsom can probably have a kickstarter rally in Oregon (if he runs) and get a GREAT reception. But the rest of the country is not necessarily Oregon. Some is and some is not.

Frigging Waco Texas is more Trumpian than even Trump.

 

[UsualName]

And as discussed ad nauseum, that is fine and dandy and I expect you to post a link showing that he had a great crowd, because he probably will. He can do the hand-picked, hard-core MAGA areas to kick start it and it will go great. The question is how does it look elsewhere when "elsewhere" comes.

Gavin Newsom can probably have a kickstarter rally in Oregon (if he runs) and get a GREAT reception. But the rest of the country is not necessarily Oregon. Some is and some is not.

Frigging Waco Texas is more Trumpian than even Trump.

Exactly. But to extend this where can DeSantis go that is more DeSantis than DeSantis. Eventually your guy is going to have to hit the trail and get some crowds going.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Exactly. But to extend this where can DeSantis go that is more DeSantis than DeSantis. Eventually your guy is going to have to hit the trail and get some crowds going.

Well, first of all "my guy" has not announced yet and he does not live in Florida.

Second, yes, DeSantis is an unknown in regard to running and his ability to relate and communicate in a national campaign which is a whole different universe than a state campaign. Especially with the quirks of primaries and door-to-doorness required. Plus- he is a relatively unknown at any level of detail by the average voter- outside the political chattering class. There are those here who disagree on the "DeSantis is not-really-known" point and they have voiced that and it is noted. My view remains.

But it could go in his favor too. He could pick up a ten point increase in the polls and Trump could lose ten and then the perceived Trump lead starts getting shaky, eh?

We don't know yet. I see an extremely long haul for Trump, you see it being a matter of just opening the gates and he steamrolls like Gen. Rommel in North Africa to the end.

As I keep saying there are things I need to see. What's it look like for Trump on donors? Not good last I checked. He was losing them by the pantload. But maybe that has changed in the last month.

 

[UsualName]

Well, first of all "my guy" has not announced yet and he does not live in Florida.

Second, yes, DeSantis is an unknown in regard to running and his ability to relate and communicate in a national campaign which is a whole different universe than a state campaign. Especially with the quirks of primaries and door-to-doorness required. Plus- he is a relatively unknown at any level of detail by the average voter- outside the political chattering class. There are those here who disagree on the "DeSantis is not-really-known" point and they have voiced that and it is noted. My view remains.

But it could go in his favor too. He could pick up a ten point increase in the polls and Trump could lose ten and then the perceived Trump lead starts getting shaky, eh?

We don't know yet. I see an extremely long haul for Trump, you see it being a matter of just opening the gates and he steamrolls like Gen. Rommel in North Africa to the end.

As I keep saying there are things I need to see. What's it look like for Trump on donors? Not good last I checked. He was losing them by the pantload. But maybe that has changed in the last month.

Im watching this talking head lady on CNN right now and she is saying nobody knows what it looks like to take Trump down. Maybe true but we know what it looks like for Donald Trump to take everybody down. He attacks early and often, his opponent says they don’t want to get in the mud and by the time they realize they’re in a fight it’s too late and Trump has already perfected his material on them.

And, yes, I get it. You’re saying the landscape is different, Trump is now a loser. Hello, up to 61% of republican voters think the election was stolen! Fox is in a billion dollar law suit over perpetuating that lie. What’s DeSantis going to do, admit Biden won fair and square? Lol. No way. Then he is in a trap he made for himself by calling Trump a loser. You cannot separate the two.

Anyways, you all have to figure it out. It’s your mess and you monster.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Im watching this talking head lady on CNN right now and she is saying nobody knows what it looks like to take Trump down. Maybe true but we know what it looks like for Donald Trump to take everybody down. He attacks early and often, his opponent says they don’t want to get in the mud and by the time they realize they’re in a fight it’s too late and Trump has already perfected his material on them.

Yeh. I dunno.

As already over-discussed, I don't see examples of his influence at the level of yesteryear. Saying that is just another version of "tell me what Trump has won lately."

He lost the last election and lost the Senate on the way out by taking two Senate seats down in Georgia.

And I don't have an exact tally in my head, but all the candidates that he backed at midterm were just a crapshoot. Lots lost and some didn't I guess. But no big Trump swinging dick intervention. Some candidates like JD Vance support Trump and won and Trump turned it around and made it look like JD won because he had Trump's endorsement. Ahhhh. no.

To repeat ad nauseum, I am not saying that Trump is not a force to contend with because he is. I am just saying that winning a primary is a very high level game and he appears to be down a quart to me. Maybe he can be down a quart and still win. That remains to be seen. But in no way do I see the 2016 thunder back in motion.

Where we agree but you think I disagree is that we both think we need to see DeSantis in action head-to-head with Trump. You think I am saying that DeSantis should not do that when if fact what I have said is that DeSantis should do it on his on timing not when he has been baited into it. The months have gone by and maybe he is choosing to do that now. But kudos for not being baited into it early. Second, I have clearly said that DeSantis "should not enter into nude mud wrestling with Trump." That is vastly different than saying that he should not go head to head with him on any issue personal or political issue that arises. I am saying stay with the issue. Otherwise you end out like Marco Rubio who tried to outTrump Trump and ended out apologizing to the country and the family for even starting down that road. Chris Christie will of course try to outTrump Trump too because that is what he does. But he is a prescription for how to lose. DeSantis needs to strike and strike hard and often. Just not on Trump's terms. And from there we can learn more about where this Trump vs. DeSantis thing is headed by seeing how well DeSantis can stand out without being drawn into the mud. If he can't, he can't. The corollary of that though is if he can, well then he can.

 

[El OchoCinco]

Yeh. I dunno.

As already over-discussed, I don't see examples of his influence at the level of yesteryear. Saying that is just another version of "tell me what Trump has won lately."

He lost the last election and lost the Senate on the way out by taking two Senate seats down in Georgia.

And I don't have an exact tally in my head, but all the candidates that he backed at midterm were just a crapshoot. Lots lost and some didn't I guess. But no big Trump swinging dick intervention. Some candidates like JD Vance support Trump and won and Trump turned it around and made it look like JD won because he had Trump's endorsement. Ahhhh. no.

To repeat ad nauseum, I am not saying that Trump is not a force to contend with because he is. I am just saying that winning a primary is a very high level game and he appears to be down a quart to me. Maybe he can be down a quart and still win. That remains to be seen. But in no way do I see the 2016 thunder back in motion.

Bigger issue for GOP is he definitely has lost the power to win.....but he is still poisonous and can take down a lot of people with him... I think as long as he keeps polling he will not go away and Ronnie and the Rest will have to kill him quicker so he aint around Jan 2024. It is hard to take someone down with zero fucks to give....

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Bigger issue for GOP is he definitely has lost the power to win.....but he is still poisonous and can take down a lot of people with him... I think as long as he keeps polling he will not go away and Ronnie and the Rest will have to kill him quicker so he aint around Jan 2024. It is hard to take someone down with zero fucks to give....

Yes of course. There is no such thing as Trump going away. He will knife his opponents hard to win and twice as hard if he is losing.

And as I said a couple times before, much of this will be determined by whether there is somewhat of a pact between the non-trump candidates to drop out early before SuperTuesday for example to let someone else consolidate votes. It's not the bit about their getting in that is a problem, it is the getting out- or rather, not getting out.

Now some will say, that that is wishful thinking on my part. Not necessarily - quite a few candidates are in it for either the vp slot or an administration slot and they need to see a republican, not trump win in both the primary and the general to make that happen. If promises need to be made to them at critical times in order to help them with their decision, I don't need to know.

The dems have all sorts of problems coming up too.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Now, let us discuss the predictable.

Trump is scheduled to be on Hannity next Monday. This will cause the predictable ones to rise and say that this is contrary to my assertion that Fox is not allowing any coverage of Trump- which I did not say. I said the word has gone out to tone it down.

Fox is handling this by telling hosts that they can interview Trump as part of the campaign mix but there is to be no exclusive shilling for Trump or disproportionate coverage/air time.

To this point, Fox interviewed DeSantis twice in the last week that I am aware of. Once on Piers Morgan, for a full hour. And again on Mark Levin, for a full hour.

And Vivek Ramaswamy got a full interview last week- can't remember where. Once on Mark Levin and on one of the other programs. And probably Nikki Haley in places, although I did not see them.

And although Trump is being interviewed on Monday on Hannity, it is equally true that Pence is being interviewed on Thurs.

Thus, Trump appears as part of the mix, which Rupert Murdoch has approved. Even though he said "our goal is to make Donald Trump a non-person" which pretty much tells you what the end goal is. Of course Paul Ryan is on the Fox board now too, so it is not just Rupert.

But as we know, Trump advanced his goals in the past by having Fox take up his cause and give full prime time coverage of ALL of his rallies. It remains to be seen whether Trump can duplicate his previous blitzkrieg of 2016 while just being treated as one of many.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Now, let us discuss the predictable.

Trump is scheduled to be on Hannity next Monday. This will cause the predictable ones to rise and say that this is contrary to my assertion that Fox is not allowing any coverage of Trump- which I did not say. I said the word has gone out to tone it down.

Fox is handling this by telling hosts that they can interview Trump as part of the campaign mix but there is to be no exclusive shilling for Trump or disproportionate coverage/air time.

To this point, Fox interviewed DeSantis twice in the last week that I am aware of. Once on Piers Morgan, for a full hour. And again on Mark Levin, for a full hour.

And Vivek Ramaswamy got a full interview last week- can't remember where. Once on Mark Levin and on one of the other programs. And probably Nikki Haley in places, although I did not see them.

And although Trump is being interviewed on Monday on Hannity, it is equally true that Pence is being interviewed on Thurs.

Thus, Trump appears as part of the mix, which Rupert Murdoch has approved. Even though he said "our goal is to make Donald Trump a non-person" which pretty much tells you what the end goal is. Of course Paul Ryan is on the Fox board now too, so it is not just Rupert.

But as we know, Trump advanced his goals in the past by having Fox take up his cause and give full prime time coverage of ALL of his rallies. It remains to be seen whether Trump can duplicate his previous blitzkrieg of 2016 while just being treated as one of many.

Tucker, Sean and Laura have total control of what they put on. Especially Sean.

 

[El OchoCinco]

Y

The Dems are in a Kobyashi Maru situation