Meh.
Trump not getting traction.
Early shooting matches. That's all.
I am still waiting for one of the pundits here to explain to me how Trump can win without Fox News support.
You want to take a crack at it Usual Tard?
Election 2024 Foreplay
- Thread starter TreeFrogTrader
- Start date
Meh.
Trump not getting traction.
Early shooting matches. That's all.
I am still waiting for one of the pundits here to explain to me how Trump can win without Fox News support.
You want to take a crack at it Usual Tard?
Nah. I’m wondering how anyone else in the Republican primary can win without Trump’s support.
You want to take a crack at it Treetard?
I don't have any problem seeing that.
Trump will wear himself down - very soon- once the primary gets more active and more participants- down to about a 35% support level- he is close to that now- when you take out all these bullshit polls made up of supporters or people who cannot think of anyone else.
So then you get three others - say Nikki, Desantis, Chris Sununu, pence, Pompeo, whatever, who get 20-ish kind of support. And at the end of they day the losers get behind a non-Trump candidate.
You know what's weird? - and there is no punchline here, just saying it feels weird. Is that in one sense, the election is a long ways away. But when viewed from another angle, Super Tuesday primary is just a year away. Weird.
We’ll see but the Republican primary voter isn’t exactly made up of people who will follow Nikki Haley’s endorsement when she drops out. The Republican primary is a WWE royal rumble and I am calling it right now, when Trump calls DeSantis “Meatball” on the debate stage it is over. The people who are repulsed by that type of behavior are more likely to vote Democrat now if days.
It is still a race to the bottom on the Republican side until otherwise proven so.
We can agree that polling sucks.
We can also agree that when good polling is done it is a piece of information to be considered.
It is too early right now because the field is so skimpy and the activity so small- but eventually I would like to see some polling that shows the usual support level for candidates PLUS who their SECOND choice is. It will give a better picture of who is flirting with supporting another candidate other than trump, but will revert back if that person does not get lift-off and also give you a picture of who has truly left trump. Say for example, they support Chris Sununu, but their second choice is Nikki Haley. That person has left Trump or is further away.
The thing that plays there is how many will rally behind Trump because they think he is the only one who can win. I submit that that argument works both ways so we shall have to see. There are many who support Trump but question what his track record has been and is of late.
Just so that people can bookmark it and stick it up my arse later, I am saying that I do not see Trump getting the nomination. And yes, Elizabeth Warren this and Elizabeth Warren that. I do not have a small penis so do not need to worry about taking risks in projections. It is just an internet forum for crisesakes. All you guys who wait until after SuperTuesday as you did last time will probably be right about your projection. duh. But it makes you a chickenshit too.
Trump is stronger now than in 2016 and the crop he is running against is weaker than 2016. Absent some jail time taking him out the game, he is going to steamroll the Republican field. How’s that?
Well. it's a view. But not mine.
Trump is much, much weaker now than he was in 2016.
People were begging for more. The seats were packed. He was an unknown quantity as far as being a candidate. The rallies were thunderous. And Fox News committed its network to every breath and dump he took.
People were clamoring to see what he was all about in 2016. Now, people have no need to do that. They know what you get. And some want it, and some don't. So it is more complicated.
And yes he will be a steamroller so there will be that element to it. There will be lots of hand to hand combat. But that does not automatically make him the winner. There are other forces at play. And he could end out as roadkill.
The Fox News money is spent. Trump has already gotten Republicans to vote for him 4x at this point. He doesn’t need Fox. He could win the nomination from his basement.
What Trump did that was actually brilliant was get people to invest in his brand with hats and shirts and flags all kinds of other shit. The biggest obstacle for meatball is getting people to put that MAGA shit in the attic.
Besides all of that, Trump actually is more inline with the Republican base on the issues. They want a crusader and accuser and they want social security and Medicare too.
Okay fine.
I don't see it.
As I said, I see him into a 35% range in another four months or less, and then struggling for the rest of the primary to cobble the nomination together- if he can. I say he can't.
Also, even though Fox spent money on Trump as you say, they will be spending more this cycle- but not on Trump. Even if it is just to give more visibility to all the rest rather than all Trump all the time. He cannot win from his basement.
But there we have it. Let the games begin.
It’s important to remember the Republican primary becomes less and less proportional in delegate allocation as the season moves up to and past Super Tuesday. We often think the democrats and republicans have identical nominating systems but they do not. Republicans move to winner take all while democrats keep slogging through proportional allocation all the way through.
At 35% early on Trump will be a juggernaut. Even though he will get higher in some states, 35% is probably his low in any state.
Like I said if you’re hoping for someone other than Trump to be the nominee then you better hope he goes to jail for a few years.